The first two days of The Masters have been carnage for the favourites so the world champion Judd Trump will be on edge when he begins his title defence in the opening match of the two games on show inside Alexandra Palace on Tuesday.
Trump meets fellow Triple Crown winner Shaun Murphy in what is the pick of the first round matches, with the winner progressing to take on Joe Perry in the quarter final later in the week, and move a step closer to regaining the title.
Judd Trump
2019 was a brilliant year for Judd Trump and now he will be out to make sure 2020 begins in the same vein. His title defence already had one boost when Ronnie O’Sullivan declined his invitation into the event. It has received a couple more boosts with Ding Junhui and Neil Robertson already exiting the tournament, and if he can come through here then the draw looks there for the taking, so he isn’t lacking for an incentive here.
Trump has already won three titles this season, the International Championship, where he ironically beat Shaun Murphy in the final, the World Open and the Northern Ireland Open, and he’ll be eyeing up a fourth title here. We saw when he was looking to win the UK Championship that he found it hard to find his best form, but these invitational events and a big crowd tend to bring out the best in him, as we saw 12 months ago when he destroyed Ronnie O’Sullivan in the final.
Shaun Murphy
It has been a successful campaign for Shaun Murphy as well. Despite losing to Trump in that International Championship final, he put that behind him to win the China Championship and he has generally been in excellent form throughout. He will arrive here full of confidence and ready to pick up the title again, having previously won it back in 2015. Murphy will be wearing one of the Triple Crown icons here and being a historian of the game you know that will inspire him.
If there is a downside for Murphy, it would come in the fact that he has only won one match since he won the title. He was well beaten by Barry Hawkins here 12 months ago and that is a concern, but we saw when he won the title five years ago that he is more than equipped to go all the way in this venue. Murphy will need to be at his best to come through here, but if he can win he’ll know only too well that the draw has already opened up.
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Head to Head
These two have met 31 times in their careers in the past and it is Trump who has a massive advantage overall. He has won 22 matches to the nine that Murphy has come out on top in. It isn’t quite that wide a margin when it comes to the frame scores with Trump having won 118 to 91 of Murphy. That suggests that when Trump wins it is relatively close while Murphy might win by a wider margin. The pair have met once in The Masters which came two years ago when Trump came out on top and this will be the fifth time they have met over 11 frames. Trump leads 3-1 in that too so history is certainly on the side of the world champion.
Betting
I think Judd Trump will take a lot of beating in this match, but it is hard to forget that the last time we saw him in a Triple Crown event he was losing to Nigel Bond, and with the way the favourites are faring this week I certainly can’t be getting involved in him, even though plenty points in his direction. I can’t say I’m in any rush to back Murphy even though he is perfectly capable of coming through this match.
Instead I’m going to hit a side market where the one in question comes in the form of the 50 breaks. The line for it is 7.5 which I think it perfectly attainable in a match between two of the better scorers in the game. Trump scores heavily and Murphy has been in great scoring form all week. We’ve seen the table is playing very well and I’m not expecting too much safety played on either side. Over 7.5 appeals to me here.
Tips
Back Over 7.5 50+ breaks for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Betfair
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