The PGA Tour remains in Ohio this week for the second of two weeks at Muirfield Village. We got a wonderful warm up act last week and now it is time for the main event on this course – the Memorial Invitational, the tournament annually hosted by the great Jack Nicklaus.
Patrick Cantlay wrote his name in the tournament history last year with an incredible final round to land the title. He is back to defend his title but he faces a very strong field all looking for one of the more sought after wins on the PGA Tour.
Recent Winners
2019 – Patrick Cantlay
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau
2017 – Jason Dufner
2016 – William McGirt
2015 – David Lingmerth
2014 – Hideki Matsuyama
2013 – Matt Kuchar
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Steve Stricker
2010 – Justin Rose
The Course
In an unprecedented turn of events we remain on the same track for a second week in a row but the course the players are going to tackle will be set up a lot differently. The rough has been allowed to grow and it was penal enough last week, while the greens will be a lot firmer and faster, making accuracy and ball striking an absolute necessity this week. We saw how hard playing from the rough was last week so shots into the greens carry extra importance.
The numbers stay the same so the track is still a par 72 which measures 7,456 yards. That is fairly long even with modern extensions but we saw a few times last week that smashing it off the tee doesn’t always yield the rewards the bigger hitters would like as you can be too close to these greens. A look at the roll of honour shows a list of pure ball strikers and in the recent part not necessarily the best putters. There is something in that.
The Field
We had a decent enough field for the Workday Charity Open here last year but we have an even stronger one this time around. The profile of the field is enhanced by the return from lockdown of former champion Tiger Woods. It was good enough before he confirmed his appearance as the likes of Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau already made it a week that was one to look forward to.
The five winners since lockdown – Daniel Berger, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa are all in the 132 man field this week while the likes of Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im and Abraham Ancer are all players who are in decent form and tee it up. Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day and Justin Rose are just some of the many household names in a top class field this week.
Market Leaders
Bryson DeChambeau has sent shockwaves through the game with his new approach and that yielded dividends when he landed the Rocket Mortgage Classic a couple of weeks ago. He goes into this tournament as the 10/1 favourite to win the title back having won it before in 2018. It has to be said that the field he beat in Detroit was the weakest one we’ve seen since lockdown so far but his form over the whole period is littered with top 10s and near misses. He was perfectly suited to this track in his former shell but whether the extra power has affected his touch a little too much will be interesting. I wouldn’t write him off but he isn’t for me.
You have to apply a little bit of guesswork if you are going to back Justin Thomas as an 11/1 second favourite this week. The thing you are guessing on is how he will react to throwing the tournament away last week. There have been a few times where those Sunday nerves have crept in and beaten him over the last 18 months or so and that has to be a concern especially in company like this who will have no problems pounding through if a door is left open. He has the ability to win any tournament he tees up in but that doubt is enough to sway me out of backing him.
Rory McIlroy and the defending champion Patrick Cantlay are both 14/1 to win the title. McIlroy hasn’t come out of lockdown as I would have expected and while he should go ok here, there has always been the feeling that his strengths aren’t necessarily as much of an advantage here. Cantlay showed his class when he won here last year and he finished like a train on this track on Sunday so he is going to be a popular selection at a fair price.
The only other man in the field shorter than 20/1 is Dustin Johnson, the man who took TPC River Highlands to the cleaners to win the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago. That showed that any doubts over his game can be put to bed but he has a best of T8 around here and he’s a regular in the tournament. That suggests that his strengths are not as advantageous here as they are on some of the other tracks the PGA Tour uses. With that in mind he’s a relatively easy swerve at 16/1. It is 22 bar that quintet.
Main Bets
Collin Morikawa was one of my main bets last week and it makes no sense for him not to be this week too. I’m not one for backing the winner of the previous week but at the same time these are different times and we never have the same course in use for two weeks in a row like we do here. Morikawa was exceptional last week and it was only the brilliance of Justin Thomas and a few indifferent swings on the Saturday from Morikawa that forced extra holes. Nevertheless the nerve Morikawa showed to win that play-off will stand him in good stead and I actually think this course could play even more into his hands when it is firmer and faster. He is a relentless operator with the irons and his putting concerns were put to bed last week. The price is a lot shorter but the way he played last week he has to be a leading contender again here.
Abraham Ancer is a regular go to man for me these days and I’m certainly not shirking him on a course that should be perfect for him. Admittedly he hasn’t been brilliant with the putter in recent times but there are two things I’ll say about that. The first is that if you look at the previous winners since Kuchar, in the main they are terrific ball strikers and poor putters. I don’t think Ancer is a poor putter, he has just been putting poorly. He’s had a couple of weeks away from competition though and that will have given him the time to refresh his memory, reflect on what he’s doing wrong and put it right. He only needs the putter to get lukewarm with his ball striking skills to be a major player here. Since the restart nobody is better than Ancer in strokes gained on approach. We saw last week just how huge a statistic that is. He’s definitely a main bet for me this week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders at different prices. Ian Poulter caught my eye last week. I always think when Poulter is putting well his game will flow from there because he is a confidence player. He putted very well last week and towards the end of the tournament he was well clear in the length of putts holed for the tournament. Morikawa and Thomas might have edged him out in that play-off but nevertheless his putting was good, which caught the eye because he hadn’t played Muirfield Village for a while. When he is confident and feeling it, Poulter is aggressive with his iron play and usually gets his ball to play the right tune. After a spin around here in slower conditions there could be more to come from ‘The Postman’ and at 80/1 I’ll pay to see if that comes true.
Another Englishman I want on my team this week is Danny Willett. I always feel comfortable with Willett when there is no massive test off the tee in terms of having to crank drives out there, and I’m definitely a fan of him on tough golf courses where the second shot in is where the test lies. He has a fine record in the European Masters, recently won around Wentworth and in Dubai and of course he won at Augusta a few years ago, a course which has a lot of the same traits that Muirfield Village has. Willett comes here in good form having finished fourth in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He was sixth in strokes gained tee to green that week so his long game is in good order. We know how good Willett is when he’s in contention. He feels a big price here.
Chez Reavie is another player I’ve liked on these sorts of courses for a while and he should perform well at big odds. He was in the top 20 without ever really being noticed in terms of televised time last week and the quicker conditions shouldn’t hamper him too much. A lack of length doesn’t harm Reavie around here but his exquisite play with the irons very much brings him into the game. He sits just outside the top 10 in strokes gained around the greens for his last 24 rounds and you’ll need to scramble well around here. He doesn’t miss many greens anyway when he’s on song and a spin around the place and the tougher conditions could play right into his hands.
Tips
Back C.Morikawa to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Ancer to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Willett to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back I.Poulter to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Reavie to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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