The major season got off to a wonderful start on Thursday and those who had a good first day in the USPGA Championship will be looking to consolidate that in the second round on Friday, while those whose opening 18 holes did not go to plan will be looking for better in order to make the cut.
It was a pretty low scoring first day but conditions visibly toughened up the longer it went on and that is the trend the tournament is likely to follow from here on in so we are set for a very interesting Friday in San Francisco.
Round 1 Recap
Scoring was good on Thursday and at the end of the day we were left with joint leaders as our pre-tournament outright bet Jason Day sat alone at the top for most of the day before Brendon Todd caught him right at the end of proceedings. The pair lead on five under ahead of a huge group of players on four under that include defending champion Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele and Martin Kaymer among others. Another of our pre-event picks Gary Woodland sits on three under in a group with Tony Finau and Daniel Berger among others. Tiger Woods is a further shot back on two under.
It was a good day for us betting wise but it could have been even better. We landed a place on the 125/1 first round leader bet but unfortunately Brendan Steele’s score was tied by a huge number so the profits were reduced heavily, but profit is profit! Further gains came in the three balls where Jason Kokrak was too good for Ryo Ishikawa and Rafa Cabrera Bello while Jon Rahm came good against Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia late on. Tom Lewis was denied by a tramliner from Mike Lorenzo-Vera on the last hole but all in all it was good profit for the day.
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Friday Betting
There are a lot of markets to still bet on over the course of Friday, the obvious one being the second round leader where I have to admit I’m tempted to back Brendon Todd as he is out early unlike most of those around him but the weather isn’t set to change much at all throughout the day so that may not be the clear advantage that it was on Thursday. With no discernible advantage to anyone and a hugely bunched leaderboard in which we already have one of the players out in front so there is no real need at this stage to get involved in a market of this kind, although we’ll keep our eye on the top end of proceedings ahead of maybe getting stuck in over the weekend.
Friday 3 Balls
The field are back out in three balls on Friday and go in the same groups which they went out in on Thursday with the times swapped so those in the morning wave on Thursday have the afternoon tee times on Friday and vice versa. That means in the early part of the day the key groups will be the ones featuring Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler as well as the one containing Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia. The later groups of interest have the last three major winners Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry and Gary Woodland in one while the heavyweight group of Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and Justin Thomas will form a large part of the coverage. Having scoured the odds there are two bets for us.
Keith Mitchell/Matthias Schwab/Brendan Steele
Match tees off at 22.04 BST
The first bet I like comes in a three ball where all the contestants were under par for their opening round. Brendan Steele carded the best round on four under while Keith Mitchell was next best on two under with Matthias Schwab one under. All three will be looking to make moves on Friday.
Mitchell got off to a bit of a slow start on Thursday but I expect him to rectify that here and despite him being the outsider of the three I am going to take him in this three ball. Admittedly his form since lockdown has been terrible but I noted that the only cut he made in six starts was in the tougher conditions at The Memorial so maybe the tough setups are inspiring him at present. His long game on Friday was immaculate. He sits in the top 10 in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation and as the course firms up they will be huge stats. Steele posted four under but could barely find a fairway while Schwab struggled off the tee too. On a tougher course than these players experienced on Thursday, that long game issue will be found out. That makes me like Mitchell here.
Scott Piercy/Alex Knoll/Andrew Putnam
Match tees off at 22.42 BST
The final group off the first tee on Friday is the one featuring Scott Piercy, Andrew Putnam and the PGA professional Alex Knoll with all three needing a better day than they enjoyed on Thursday although two of them are playing on a monster track for their skill set.
Piercy won this group on even par on Thursday, three clear of Putnam and seven ahead of Knoll but the big hitting star had so much more in hand but for dropping three shots on his last two holes, the toughest two holes on the course. The metrics here are pretty simple, Putnam isn’t nearly long enough to contend on here and his long game was all over the shop on Thursday. Knoll is here by right but clearly is out of his depth. Piercy has the power to take the course on and I expect him to run out every bit as comfortable a winner on Friday.
Tips
Back K.Mitchell to beat B.Steele & M.Schwab for a 3/10 stake at 3.60 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back S.Piercy to beat A.Knoll & A.Putnam for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betway
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