It is ‘moving day’ in the USPGA Championship on Saturday as we begin to head towards the conclusion of the first major in 13 months. The field has been reduced with the halfway cut but all those teeing it up in the third round know they can still win the tournament.
Just nine shots separates the leader and those who got in on the cut line so we are set for a wonderful weekend and with a star-studded leaderboard and a golf course that is getting harder to play by the hour, the test is going to be a strong one.
Round 2 Recap
The second round wasn’t quite as low scoring as the first one but there were moves made by some not least Haotong Li who will go into the third round of the tournament with a two shot lead on eight under. He heads a group of six on six under that includes our pre-tournament pick Jason Day as well as Tommy Fleetwood and the in form Daniel Berger. Justin Rose and the defending champion Brooks Koepka are also in that group so it is absolutely loaded. There is a trio of players on five under which includes another of our pre-event picks Cameron Champ while Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele are ominously poised on four under.
It wasn’t the best day of all time for us betting wise with both our three ball bets losing by one shot which was a little annoying. Both had putts to get us a share of the spoils too which made it even more galling but we get ready to go again on Saturday. The one good thing about Friday was that our outrights enhanced their chances with Day and Champ firmly in the top 10 and Collin Morikawa not too far back.
Saturday Betting
We have a third round leader betting market and with an uneasy leader it is probably a good time to get stuck into it but with that group of players on six under so strong it is hard to decide who it will be who comes out of the pack and puts themselves in front. You can make an easy case for all of Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Daniel Berger and Brooks Koepka but choosing between them all isn’t easy. Maybe the fact that Rose is a double figure price makes him tempting but anyone of them could lead. That group is so strong that it probably isn’t worth looking at someone below six under because at least one of that quintet are going to enhance their score and probably a lot more than one of them. I’ve got a couple in the outright market in good positions so I’ll hope they enhance their chances rather than guess who will lead.
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Saturday 2 Balls
The remaining players in the tournament will go out on twos on Saturday with the final group of Tommy Fleetwood and Haotong Li going off at 23.00 BST. The penultimate group of Jason Day and Daniel Berger go out 10 minutes before them. It might be that the pick of the groups is the one prior to that which sees the defending champion Brooks Koepka and Justin Rose tussling it out. A couple of hours earlier Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau play alongside each other while the Adam Scott and Collin Morikawa pairing should a ball striking dream. There are two bets I like and they come in the other group.
Alex Noren vs Matthew Wolff
Match tees off at 21.50 BST
Two players who have had good weeks so far go out just over an hour before the leaders when Alex Noren and Matthew Wolff partner each other on their third round journey with the Swede starting at four under and Wolff at three under so both need a low one to get deep into contention.
When you look at the statistics for the tournament so far it is incredible that Noren is a shot ahead of Wolff because his long game has been terrible. While Noren’s misses on the fairways and the greens have been near ones, there is only so long this course will be able to be got at without it being played from the fairways and even it is playable from the rough he will be vulnerable against someone on the short stuff. Wolff has been one of the best players in the field from tee to green. He paces the field in greens hit and is well above average off the tee. His putter is yet to truly cooperate but it shouldn’t be long before it does and if that comes on Saturday he should fancy his chances of beating Noren here.
Mike Lorenzo-Vera vs Cameron Champ
Match tees off at 22.30 BST
The fourth to last group out onto the golf course on Saturday sees another European vs American pairing on show when the classy French player Mike Lorenzo-Vera takes on the younger powerhouse Cameron Champ with both men looking to intensity their challenge over these 18 holes.
Lorenzo-Vera begins the round a shot better off than Champ on six under but again when we look at the statistics we are left wondering how that is the case. I suspect it is because of the side of the draw. ML-V was in the early starters on Thursday whereas Champ was in the later starters where conditions were clearly tougher. When the American had more favourable conditions on Friday he shot a 64 to pelt himself into contention. The skillset of Champ is better suited to this course anyway and the long game statistics show enough to make me think that he is the one most likely to win this two ball.
Tips
WON – Back M.Wolff to beat A.Noren for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with 888sport
Back him here:
WON – Back C.Champ to beat M.Lorenzo-Vera for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
Back him here:
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