A big end to the golfing year begins this week when the leading players in the world head to Memphis for the WGC St Jude Invitational, the latest WGC event and the prelude to the first major of the year next week.
This tournament used to be the St Jude Classic, a regular PGA Tour stop, but Brooks Koepka feasted on it becoming a WGC event last year to land the title. He defends here as he will do at the PGA Championship next week.
Recent Winners (St Jude Classic up to 2018)
2019 – Brooks Koepka
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Daniel Berger
2016 – Daniel Berger
2015 – Fabian Gomez
2014 – Ben Crane
2013 – Harris English
2012 – Dustin Johnson
2011 – Harrison Frazar
2010 – Lee Westwood
The Course
TPC Southwind is once again the venue for the tournament this week. It has been lengthened by 40 yards since last year so the par 70 now measures 7,277 yards. Golfers are used to courses getting longer these days but a growing trend appears to be the moving of bunkers to correspond with the likely landing spots to make them true hazards. That has happened here since the last time the course hosted the event.
The fairways here are generally on the tight side and there is usually some scraggly rough around the greens so this is a course that needs to be played from the short grass. When you look at the list of past winners it is generally players who strike the golf ball purely. It might pay to have a bit of length this week as we are deep into summer so storms are never going to be far away. This is a decent test of golf which should make for a good watch.
The Field
As you would expect with a WGC event the field this week is very strong. There are some notables who qualified who are not taking their chances such as Tiger Woods, Lee Westwood, Justin Rose and Francesco Molinari but despite them not teeing it up we have a strong field this week. It sees the world number one Jon Rahm on the course for the first time since he claimed that position when he won at The Memorial.
The field also includes the defending champion Brooks Koepka, a Rory McIlroy likely to be determined to regain his world number one spot, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and many of the winners since the restart including the 3M Open winner Michael Thompson. Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Daniel Berger, Patrick Reed and Collin Morikawa all bring a serious quality to proceedings.
Market Leaders
The bookmakers find it hard to separate the new world number one Jon Rahm and his predecessor Rory McIlroy this week. Both are 11/1 favourites depending on where you shop. It will be interesting to see how Rahm carries the burden of being the world number one. I suspect he’ll be fine with it but you never know until you see it. He’s just a little too short for me with that question mark though, especially with a possible eye on next week. McIlroy looks like he is clearly missing crowds to me and his game has been affected as a result. I’ll gladly pass him over especially with a major next week.
There are two more players at 12/1 and they are Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau. Much has been made about the new power that DeChambeau has in his armoury and that might well serve him to his desire at the majors but I’m not convinced it will do much for him this week. Thomas has to prove to me he can get over the line again before I back him at this price. Although it suited me, his collapse when in front at the Workday Charity Open doesn’t leave my mind easily.
Xander Schauffele often gets himself in the mix when the big events come along and he is 18/1 to walk away with the WGC title this week. He has four top 20s since the restart although only in the first of those did he threaten to win. His record in the WGCs is very strong though but he was only T27 here last year. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins here but at the prices I think better value lies elsewhere this week.
Patrick Cantlay is an accurate sort who should enjoy himself on a track like this and he is the only other player in the outright market who is 20/1 or shorter, which highlights how open this tournament might prove to be. He ended in a T12 position here last year and although year-long statistics have to be modified to be useful in 2020, he is second on the all-around ranking on the PGA Tour which shows how well his game is throughout the bag. His putting and short game always concerns me though.
Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week and the first of them won’t get you very far on DFS line ups but as an outright bet it should. That comes in the form of Daniel Berger who has won around here twice, albeit when it was a regular tour event with a weaker field than this one. That part would have been a concern had it not been for him winning the Charles Schwab Classic on the restart of the tour. That was one of the most loaded fields of the season and he came out on top on a golf course at Colonial that has a lot of the characteristics that this one does. Berger has not hidden away from his love for TPC Southwind so it is no coincidence that he has won twice around here and with him following up that win at the Charles Schwab with a T3 at The Heritage he is clearly in good form. I’ll let him off the missed cut at The Memorial as that was a brutal course setup. Berger ticks all the boxes and there’s a reason he’ll be popular this week. He’s my main bet.
The other man I’ll take as a main bet is Dustin Johnson, another player with two wins around here in the past. This one is slightly more of a risk because he left the 3M Open last week after 18 holes with a back issue after a third terrible round in succession to go with the two he produced at The Memorial. That is the negative but the positives are clear if he is fit. He has won here twice and clearly loves the track, he’ll be looking to get good reps under his belt to take to San Francisco with him next week and for all his game is in bad shape if you believe what you read, it was only a month ago that he was winning the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands against a decent field. At 33/1 I think a bet on DJ is a risk worth taking this week on a course that suits him.
Outsiders
Ian Poulter has a decent enough record around here. He has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts here, including last year. The smaller than normal greens really bring his scrambling forte into play but it is the sort of course where his long game can have him competitive anyway. If you have followed the career of Poulter you will know he wants to succeed in the big events so this is a big fortnight or so for him. Poulter missed the cut in The Memorial but he was in the top five at Muirfield Village the week before that. He was also in the top 15 at The Heritage so there is enough in the recent form of Poulter and the strengths of his game to suggest he is a big price here.
Mackenzie Hughes is anything but a regular at WGC events but that doesn’t mean to say that he is here making up the numbers. He is here because he has shown excellent form recently and not just good form but impressive numbers in the statistics that matter. When he was T3 at the Travelers last month nobody bettered his stroked gained around the green rankings and he led the field in strokes gained putting at The Memorial on greens that were as fast and fiery as we will see all year. He was also a runner up t Sungjae Im on a tough track at The Honda Classic prior to the lockdown so this is a man who goes big when he gets it right. At 150/1 I’ll pay to see how he goes on another track that should suit.
My final bet is Rafa Cabrera-Bello who has had two very good spins around here. His recent form hasn’t been the best but it might be telling that his best result since lockdown was at Colonial, a similar track to this one, where he was in the top 25. His two runs here have seen him finish T12 and T4 so there is something about this place that clearly suits him. One of the things that will be is because his excellent short game and putting can come to the fore, but also the irons in are generally in his wheelhouse too. Given his record here a three figure price on the Spaniard, who may well be inspired by the recent heroics of Jon Rahm, is too big to ignore.
Tips
PLACED – Back D.Berger to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back D.Johnson to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back I.Poulter to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Hughes to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Cabrera Bello to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
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