The World Grand Prix will be won on Monday night when Dirk van Duijvenbode takes on Gerwyn Price for a very illustrious title and the not too shabby sum of £110,000 when they meet over the best of nine sets inside the behind closed doors setup at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry.
It is fair to say that while one of these finalists could have been predicted, the other certainly couldn’t have so it will be interesting to see if the match goes with the form and rankings or whether we have yet another surprise to end a week of shocks.
Dirk van Duijvenbode
Early in the tournament there was a sense that Dirk van Duijvenbode, the lowest ranked player in the draw, was purely taking advantage of poor play from his opponents but since the quarter final he has played some of the best stuff in the tournament. He has revealed that he is working with a sports psychologist and that has been evident because he has visibly grown in belief throughout the competition to the extent that he is likely to cope fine with his first major final.
The one thing van Duijvenbode has done really well in the tournament, both when he wasn’t playing at his best, and latterly when he has been, is get started regularly. A huge part of this tournament revolves around the starting double and there haven’t been many times at all when the Dutchman has failed to get away with his first three darts. The longer the event has gone on the better he has scored and it is to his credit that in his wins over Gary Anderson and Simon Whitlock he has played his best stuff.
Gerwyn Price
We often look back at the end of a tournament and find that the winner has had a great deal of fortune to overcome a moment of difficulty and Gerwyn Price has had that. He watched on in the semi-final as Dave Chisnall missed three darts at a double to knock him out and now he will be looking to make the most of that and come away with another televised title to go along with his two Grand Slam successes and his World Series Finals win last month.
Where van Duijvenbode has been very solid on the starting double the same can’t be levelled at Price. He has been extremely ropey on it but the one thing he has done is score very heavily when he has got in to legs. He starts on tops in the main so he doesn’t lose darts when he gets in which is important. The other thing the Welshman has done in the main is check out very well and that sets up a fascinating clash in this final.
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Head to Head
Dirk van Duijvenbode certainly won’t want to take a look at the head to head between these two men because they have played on eight occasions and the Dutchman has lost each and every one. The other issue is that he has never got within three legs of his opponent in this final so Gerwyn Price must be full of confidence going into this contest. This will be the first time they have met in the final but they have played on a stage before. Price beat van Duijvenbode in the semi-final of a European Tour event prior to lockdown and he also beat him in the UK Open a couple of years ago. The Dutchman will be hoping that the format becomes a leveller in this final.
Betting
I think experience and that pretty emphatic head to head demands that Price cannot be opposed in this final but I’m in no rush to take a 2/9 shot and the handicap is well lined up at 2.5 sets which leaves us vulnerable to who throws first should we get involved in that. The way van Duijvenbode is starting in this tournament makes me think that he can at least be a factor in it and we’re not going to get one of those complete wipeout finals we have seen in this in the past.
Much like in the semi-finals, I think the best bet in this final is to concentrate on the 180s. Dirk hit 10 of them in his semi-final romp over Simon Whitlock which was credit to him considering the Aussie did everything he could to put him off his game. Price hit nine of them in his semi-final so both men are scoring well. You have to think the bare minimum we’ll get in terms of sets in this final is six and if that is the case we need an average of one each per set with one on top somewhere for the over 12.5 180s to land. Should we get more sets that average comes down to less than one each per set. I’m happy to take the risk that we get more than six sets knowing that even if we get just six sets there will be enough time for over 12.5 180s to land.
Tips
WON – Back Over 12.5 180s for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Boylesports
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