The PGA Tour was meant to be in Japan this week for the ZOZO Championship but due to the travel restrictions the event has had to be relocated to California where the 78 man field will look to earn all the riches that come from this tournament.
Tiger Woods landed all the perks of the top prize out in Japan last year and the Masters champion will appear at a course he knows very well in a bid to defend the title. This is another cracking field though so he’ll have to use all his knowledge and experience to come through here.
Recent Winners
2019 – Tiger Woods
The Course
When Tiger Woods heard he couldn’t defend this title on the track he won by three at last year it must have been music to his ears when he was told the event would be staged at the Sherwood Country Club in California. That is because this course hosted Tiger’s Hero World Challenge from 2000 to 2013, a venue that Tiger won five times at. Admittedly that was in a 16 player field but to be fair there aren’t many Nicklaus designed tracks that Tiger doesn’t thrive on.
The course this week is very short by modern standards. It is a par 72 but only measures 7,073 yards and with the weather expected to be pretty good for the most part it really isn’t going to play long. The rough is a little thicker than we are used to on the PGA Tour and the greens are set pretty quick this week so we’re probably looking at an event similar to The Memorial in terms of playability. Scoring is likely to be low though especially as there is no cut again this week.
The Field
Whenever Tiger Woods is in a field there is a real high profile look to it and that is very much the case this week. The field has lost the world number one Dustin Johnson though as he has pulled out due to Covid-19. The winner of last week Jason Kokrak is in the field as is the USPGA Championship winner Collin Morikawa. Runner up last week Xander Schauffele is another leading name who is teeing it up in California this week.
Jon Rahm won that Memorial event I was mentioning earlier and it will be he, Rory McIlroy and the recent BMW PGA Championship winner Tyrrell Hatton who spearhead the European charge this week. The likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Joaquin Niemann will be going at it for the Internationals while top class American players like Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Daniel Berger and Webb Simpson all give the field further strength.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm is a 10/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. If you think back to how easily he won The Memorial there is a strong case for him being the man to beat but you would have to put a couple of average results by his standards behind him if you are going to back him. This isn’t a week where his length really comes to the party either which is another issue although the five par 5s around this place will certainly do his scoring credentials no harm at all. This field is a little hot to be taking 10/1 shots but I’m only against him for that reason.
When the big tournaments come along it almost goes without saying that Xander Schauffele is one to watch and he is the 11/1 second favourite to go one better than he managed in Vegas last week and waltz off with the title. Nicklaus courses are second shot tracks and not many hit more precise irons than Schauffele these days. I think the odds compilers have caught up with him now and although it would be no surprise to see him win and win well his price is pretty restrictive these days.
Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas are the third favourites this week at 12/1. I’m not convinced that either of these are enjoying the behind closed doors stuff and that’s an immediate concern here it has to be said but it is only four months ago that Thomas was getting beaten in a play-off in the first of two events at Jack’s place so that is a boost to his chances. His performances in contention still concern me though. McIlroy is due a good week but I’m not getting involved at these prices until I see one.
Webb Simpson is the only other man in the field who is shorter than 20/1. He can be backed at 18/1 and if you are a believer that this track shares many traits with Hilton Head then you’ll be interested in Simpson as he is the current holder of the RBC Heritage. Any course where iron strength is a requirement Simpson has to come high up on the shortlists because he is so good with the irons in hand. I suspect this might be low scoring though and his putter isn’t always as hot as I’d like it to be at this price. It is 20/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’ll go with three main bets this week as I couldn’t decide between the two Americans. The first of them is a man I’ve been behind quite a bit since the restart, winning twice on him, in Collin Morikawa, a player who has something of a home game in California this week. As with all Nicklaus courses Sherwood is a second shot golf course and there aren’t many strikers of a golf ball with an iron than the USPGA champion. He showed that on a Nicklaus course earlier in the year when he won the Workday Charity Open and I expect him to do that again. To be fair, since he won the USPGA Championship the results of Morikawa has dropped off but he offered up a better display on a tough course from tee to green last week and ranked seventh in strokes gained for that discipline. He looks primed for a serious assault at this title.
Tyrrell Hatton was high up on my shortlist last week but the difference in time zones and the travel ultimately put me off taking him so I was sweating for a while over how well he was going but thankfully he settled for a third placed finish to back up his win in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth the week before. Hatton usually comes good at this time of year having won a couple of Dunhill Links titles and an Italian Open and I’m often one to ride the form of a player at a time when they go well. Hatton’s long game looks in pristine shape and his putting is always a strength of his. He should have won the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head earlier in the year, a course which has similarities with this one. Hatton ticks a lot of boxes and has to be backed here.
The other main bet I’m going with is a man who says he has played Sherwood ‘over 1000 times’ in the form of the US Open runner up Matthew Wolff. Since that disappointment he has gone on to finish second in the Shriners where he lost a play-off to Martin Laird so the former PGA Tour winner arrives at a course he clearly knows very well in excellent form. He had a bad week at the CJ Cup last week but I wonder if that was related to the disappointment of failing to win the week before and the fact that he had a lot of his attention on this week. Course familiarity on a deck that hasn’t been used on the tour for seven years would be enough to back him but recent form also is. He looks like another standout bet.
Outsiders
I often like Lanto Griffin on these types of tracks and I’m especially enthused with him this week given that he comes in here off the back of a top 10 around a tough track in Vegas last week. He has shown since he came onto the tour that he is very good from the second shot in and that is primarily the test around Sherwood so he should be very well suited to the exam here. Griffin is a very good putter which will be a big advantage on these big greens where three putting is a real concern and at this time of year the fairways are often a little softer which make them bigger for his drives. There’s a lot to like about the chances of the Houston Open champion this week and he’s a decent price too.
Finally I’m going to take a real punt on Michael Thompson, a player who is a massive price but actually has a PGA Tour win since lockdown at the 3M Open where the scoring was low, much like it is expected to be this week. Thompson isn’t a regular winner, or indeed regularly in the mix, so it is interesting to me that he has a succession of top 10 finishes at similar courses to this at say Pebble Beach, Hilton Head and Muirfield Village. One thing we know about Thompson is that he putts very well and in a low scoring week that is needed. If he can dial a few irons in over the course of the piece he could seriously outrun his extremely generous price.
Tips
Back C.Morikawa to win ZOZO Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Thompson to win ZOZO Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 351.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back T.Hatton to win ZOZO Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back M.Wolff to win ZOZO Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back L.Griffin to win ZOZO Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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