Indian Wells opens its gates to the stars of the ATP Tour and fans for the first time in 2.5 years this week when the latest Masters 1000 event – the BNP Paribas Open – takes place over the remainder of this week and the whole of next.
Dominic Thiem landed a first hard court Masters 1000 title here two years ago but injury rules him out of defending his title. The big three are all absent for this tournament too so we are going to get a new champion at the end of the 10 days.
Recent Winners
2019 – Dominic Thiem
2018 – Juan Martin del Potro
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Rafael Nadal
2012 – Roger Federer
2011 – Novak Djokovic
2010 – Ivan Ljubicic
The Format
This tournament is in keeping with the usual Masters 1000 format. 96 players will begin the tournament with 32 seeded players who receive byes into the second round with the other 64 men battling it out to face a seed in that stage of the tournament. Every match in the event is the best of three sets and there is a normal tiebreak in the final set. The draw has been announced and is played out as drawn in the bracket.
Top Quarter
The US Open champion Daniil Medvedev is the highest player in the tournament in terms of the rankings and he is the number one seed as a result. That means he’ll look to win a first Indian Wells title from the top quarter of the draw. Seven seeds will oppose him looking to stop him winning another hard court crown to add to the one he won in Canada earlier in the year. They are Filip Krajinovic, Grigor Dimitrov, Reilly Opelka, the man who Medvedev beat in the final in Toronto, Denis Shapovalov, Aslan Karatsev, Sebastian Korda and Hubert Hurkacz.
Plenty of other players are in each of these quarters that aren’t seeded and the home star Frances Tiafoe will be one of those looking for a decent run on home soil. Sam Querrey is another American who will be looking to use the humid conditions to his advantage and have a decent showing. Other names of note are the US Open quarter finalist Botic van de Zandschulp, Benoit Paire and the veteran German player Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Second Quarter
This is the wide open section of the draw in many ways. One reason for that is because Andrey Rublev is the top seed in it and he is yet to win a Masters 1000 title, and the Cincinnati Masters earlier in the year was the first time he had even made a final at this level. That might open the door for one of the other seeds to step through with Casper Ruud one of those. He will look to add to his five ATP titles this year including the San Diego Open last week. The other six seeds in this section are Dusan Lajovic, Cameron Norrie who lost to Ruud in that final last week, Roberto Bautista Agut, Diego Schwartzman, Dan Evans and Lloyd Harris who also had a good showing in the US Open.
As with the other quarters there are household names who start out in the first round in this quarter. Steve Johnson will be looking to use the home crowds to his advantage while Kei Nishikori has shown signs of returning to his best form in 2021 and will hope to continue that this week. Tennys Sandgren and Tommy Paul are other home players who will want to go well while Feliciano Lopez is one of a number of Spaniards looking to progress in this quarter.
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Third Quarter
The Olympic champion and winner of the Cincinnati Masters, Alexander Zverev, is the leading light in the third quarter. You would think he would have a good record in this tournament with conditions suiting someone with a big serve but that isn’t the case. He has never had a year like this one before though so that might change this week but seven others will hope it doesn’t. Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini heads up the other seeds in this quarter with Taylor Fritz, John Isner, Jannik Sinner, Gael Monfils, Lorenzo Sonego and Carlos Alcaraz the other seeds in what should be an entertaining quarter.
Jenson Brooksby made a name for himself with an exciting run at the US Open and he’ll be looking to announce himself on the big stage once again from this section of the draw. This has never been the happiest of hunting grounds for Andy Murray but he is back in this quarter looking to change all that. Former Wimbledon finalist Kevin Anderson is another who will be hoping to make hay in this section while Jack Sock and Brandon Nakashima will hope to keep the home crowds interested for a few rounds.
Bottom Quarter
Stefanos Tsitsipas is the top seed in the bottom quarter of the draw but he tends to flatter to deceive in the faster conditions which makes the French Open finalist vulnerable. Felix Auger-Aliassime will look to build on his run to the last four of the US Open from this quarter and will fancy his chances of a good week. The other six seeds all looking to go well too are Nikoloz Basilashvili, Karen Khachanov, Pablo Carreno Busta, Cristian Garin, Alex de Minaur and the enigmatic Fabio Fognini.
Jan-Lennard Struff only just missed out on a seeding this week so he could be dangerous for a few players this week. Holger Rune showed signs of a bright talent when he took Novak Djokovic to four sets at the US Open and he has another chance to show what he can do here while Lorenzo Musetti and Christopher Eubanks are two of the other players who aren’t seeded in this tournament who have a bit of upside to them.
Betting
I’ll keep my outright bets away from the top half this week because Daniil Medvedev does look the class act in the field, so if he does come through here I’d at least like some place money on my side before we take him on. The first outright bet is the Italian big server Matteo Berrettini who should be suited to these conditions. His big serve will be a huge factor this week and the forehand he has to follow it up with should be equally as potent. He’s in a quarter with a bunch of big servers but they don’t all have the next shot weapon that Berrettini has. Zverev sets the standard in the section but his record here is incredibly ordinary and now that the ATP are staging an investigation into allegations against him he might find focus harder to come by here. Berrettini reached the final of Wimbledon and was a set up on Djokovic in the last eight of the US Open so he’s gone well in the last few months and looks big at 25/1.
The other bet I’ll go with is Felix Auger-Aliassime, a man who I took to win the US Open but fell a win short of a place losing to Daniil Medvedev in the semi-final. He won’t have to come up against the Russian until the final here though so we’ll have some place money in the bank before they meet should that be the final. Auger-Aliassime has got Rafael Nadal’s uncle in his team at the minute and that bodes well for him for the remainder of the year. The Canadian is pushing hard for a place at the ATP World Tour Finals and a run here would boost those hopes. He is in a quarter he should be able to take advantage of so the 33/1 is of real interest to me.
Tips
Back M.Berrettini to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back F.Auger Aliassime to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
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