The fourth round of the Australian Open comes to an end on Monday and by the time the lights are turned off on the two show courts at Melbourne Park we will know the identity of the quarter finalists in both singles draws.
We saw some big names progress through to the last eight of the competition on Sunday and on Monday the likes of Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Ash Barty are just some of those looking to join them.
Day 7 Recap
It promised to be a brilliant day of tennis on Sunday and that is exactly what we got with three of the four women’s matches of the highest quality. Naomi Osaka, Serena Williams and Simona Halep all came through but they all had to win a deciding set while in the men’s draw there were comfortable wins for Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov but Novak Djokovic dropped a set on his way through to the quarter final stage.
It was a perfect day for us betting wise though. It started with Serena Williams getting the better of Aryna Sabalenka in a really high quality three-set contest and although Alexander Zverev won in straight sets which was easier than I thought he would come through in, two of the sets were close enough that we went beyond the 30.5 games line so we came away with two winners from a day where we had two bets which gives us something to build on.
Rod Laver Arena
The opening match on the Rod Laver Arena on Monday sees the world number five Elina Svitolina looking to make it through to the quarter final of a major once again when she takes on the unseeded American player Jessica Pegula. When they are done two seeded players meet in the women’s draw when Donna Vekic takes on the highly rated Jennifer Brady who is climbing the rankings fast at the minute. The day session then concludes with the highest ranked player on show in Rafael Nadal as he goes up against the enigmatic Italian player Fabio Fognini.
The night session will have the home crowds flocking to their screens to watch because it is the world number one Ash Barty who kicks it all off. She meets another of the unseeded American brigade in Shelby Rogers for a spot in the last eight, before the best looking match of the day rounds off the play on the Rod Laver Arena when Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on the other half of the Italian ATP Cup finalists team in Matteo Berrettini.
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Margaret Court Arena
We have one of the wheelchair matches kicking things off on the Margaret Court Arena but when that is done it is down to singles action with the ATP Finals winner Daniil Medvedev going up against Mackenzie McDonald before the day session concludes with Medvedev’s Russia teammate Andrey Rublev who has an interesting challenge on his hands in the form of the Norwegian player Casper Ruud, who has enjoyed a decent run so far.
With the majority of the matches on the Rod Laver Arena on Monday there is only one game left for the night session on the Margaret Court Arena but it looks a decent enough encounter on paper as Elise Mertens looks to continue her lengthy winning run this month when she takes on the Czech ace Karolina Muchova who saw off her compatriot Karolina Pliskova in the previous round and who looks to be playing very well herself.
Betting
There is only one bet that I like over the course of the eight singles matches on the two courts on Monday and we have to wait until the final match of the day session for it to come along. That sees Fabio Fognini going up against Rafael Nadal in a match which I think the Italian can keep the Spanish legend a lot more honest than the many markets would suggest. Fognini can be enigmatic and difficult to predict but he does seem to enjoy the matchup with Nadal.
Fognini has won at least a set in four of their last five matches and beat Nadal 3-2 on the only previous time that they met in a hard court Grand Slam. That was back at the US Open in 2015 but that could still be significant because when he fancies it Fognini is a much better player now and we know that this is not Nadal’s favourite tournament having won it only once. If he is vulnerable in a major it is here. Fognini might lack the consistency to win this match but he is playing well, hitting the ball hard and against de Minaur in the previous round serving well. I think there is a better than 10/11 chance that the Italian wins a set so over 3.5 sets at that price looks good to me.
Tips
Back F.Fognini vs R.Nadal – Over 3.5 sets for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Boylesports
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