After a pretty wise delay to allow Covid-19 pass through enough to allow crowds to attend, the opening Grand Slam of the year gets underway in Melbourne on Monday when the Australian Open begins.
Novak Djokovic once again landed this crown in much more normal times a little over 12 months ago and he’ll be looking to make a successful defence of the title but this feels like a pretty competitive draw this season.
Recent Winners
2020 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Roger Federer
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Stan Wawrinka
2013 – Novak Djokovic
2012 – Novak Djokovic
2011 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
As ever in a Grand Slam the draw is pre-determined and the brackets have been drawn ahead of the tournament. Each match in the event is the best of five sets but unlike in previous years there will be a tiebreak in the deciding set. Should the score reach 6-6 in the final set a champion’s tiebreak will be played where the first to 10 points wins the match. The title will be decided on the second Sunday as always.
Top Quarter
As the defending champion and world number one Novak Djokovic headlines the top quarter and he will be the one expected to make it through to the semi-final from this section but as always there are seven other seeded players who are out to stop him. They are Taylor Fritz, former champion Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, his ATP Cup teammate Dusan Lajovic, Adrian Mannarino and the US Open finalist Alexander Zverev.
Plenty of household names have endured the quarantine to play in this tournament who are not seeded and in this quarter we have the likes of Miomir Kecmanovic, Dennis Novak, who had a decent ATP Cup run, home star John Millman, Frances Tiafoe, the big serving Reilly Opelka and a man who played in the final of one of the warm up events prior to this competition in the form of the Italian player Stefano Travaglia.
Second Quarter
This is where the beaten finalist from 2020 Dominic Thiem heads up the quarter. It always seems to be that the second quarter of a make Grand Slam event is a wide open affair and that is no different here to be fair. The other seeds looking to do some damage in this section of the draw include Ugo Humbert, Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta, Denis Shapovalov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Benoit Paire and Diego Schwartzman.
There are a fair few names who have gone through quarantine in this quarter too who don’t have a seeded number next to their name. Probably the biggest danger of those is the man who won the Great Ocean Road Open in the lead up to this event in Jannik Sinner. Others of note are the home qualifier Bernard Tomic, Kei Nishikori, former US Open champion Marin Cilic and the always entertaining Nick Kyrgios.
Third Quarter
It is the ATP Finals winner Daniil Medvedev who heads up the third quarter in terms of the seeds. He had an excellent run as part of the winning Russia side in the ATP Cup to warm up for this event so he is in a good place. The same can be said for Andrey Rublev though and he is the next highest seed in this part of the draw. The other six seeds looking to make progress are Lorenzo Sonego, Casper Ruud, Roberto Bautista Agut, David Goffin, Borna Coric and Filip Krajinovic so this looks a competitive section.
There are some players who aren’t seeded who are perfectly capable of having a decent run in this competition. Vasek Pospisil would be one of them while Guido Pella, Jan-Lennard Struff, Sam Querrey and Feliciano Lopez are others who will like the look of the draw while players such as Jordan Thompson will be looking to use the home crowd which has been absent from sport for so long to his overall advantage.
Bottom Quarter
Rafael Nadal is slated to be the highest seed in the bottom quarter of the draw but he never played a match in the ATP Cup due to a back injury so whether he lines up remains to be seen. If he doesn’t then the former ATP Finals winner Stefanos Tsitsipas will be looking to take full advantage. They are not the only seeds who could go well in this tournament though. Italian star Matteo Berrettini had an excellent ATP Cup campaign while Hubert Hurkacz and Karen Khachanov are both capable on their day. The other seeds are Fabio Fognini, Alex de Minaur and Dan Evans, who won a warm up event prior to this tournament.
There are plenty of unseeded players who will be well known to many in this quarter of the draw. Viktor Troicki was once in the top 25 in the world while Tennys Sandgren, Andreas Seppi, Pablo Cuevas, Kevin Anderson and Gilles Simon have all spent time towards the top of the world rankings or have had decent showings in Grand Slams in the past. Thanasi Kokkinakis is a home star looking to make the most of a wild card this week.
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Outright Betting
I’ll take two against the field in this competition this fortnight. The main bet for me is Andrey Rublev who improved out of trace in 2020 and looks to have kicked on again in the off season if his ATP Cup campaign is anything to go by. I do think that those who warmed up for this tournament in the ATP Cup has a significant advantage on the others because not only were they mixing it with better opposition but they were also involved in intense occasions which will be just as important. Rublev might not have met the very elite of the game in that tournament but those he did play he put away emphatically and in a quarter which should be all about the Russian pair, I’ll take the one who is much the bigger price at a decent price.
Matteo Berrettini impressed a lot of judges in the ATP Cup and probably spearheaded the Italian challenge in that tournament. He is in the Rafael Nadal quarter but there isn’t a guarantee he starts the tournament and even less of one that he remains in the sort of health to go deep in it. Berrettini had no answer to Daniil Medvedev in the final of the ATP Cup but prior to that he handed out emphatic beatings to Dominic Thirm, Roberto Bautista Agut and Gael Monfils so he looks to be in great form and if Nadal does come out he could be the one to come through a much more open section of the draw.
Quarter Betting
I’m going Italian with my quarter bets in this competition. One of them is the man who has actually won his last two singles events in Jannik Sinner. The latest of those came on this complex over the weekend where he saw off the likes of Karen Khachanov, Miomir Kecmanovic and others to win one of the warm up events. He won in Sofia at the back end of last year and we all know about his talent from his Next Gen days. Sinner has a brute of a draw in the first round in Denis Shapovalov but if he can come through that the draw could easily open up. Dominic Thiem looked rusty at the ATP Cup last week while Diego Schwartzman probably isn’t best suited to conditions here. Sinner is a decent enough price at 8/1 to come through here.
I’ll also take the double figures on offer for Matteo Berrettini in the bottom quarter as well. In truth if Nadal finds his fitness you would expect him to come through but given there is every chance he doesn’t even compete then someone else has to be taken. I’ve mentioned all his other credentials in the blurb above but in what would be a wide open quarter should Nadal perish the 12/1 on the Italian is way too big based on his efforts coming into the tournament.
Tips
Back A.Rublev to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back M.Berrettini to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back J.Sinner to win 2nd Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 9.00 with William Hill
Back M.Berrettini to win 4th Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with William Hill
Back them here:
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