After a high class but at times controversial opening day of the 2021 Breeders Cup meeting in Del Mar on Friday, the main event comes along on Saturday when some of the top horses in racing take to the track for the Breeders Cup Classic.
This is always a massive day in the racing calendar and one of the reasons for that is because the support card to the big race is fantastic. We’ve gone through the card and picked out four bets including one in the big one.
7.40 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
Preview
This is all about speed with 12 lining up for the 5 furlong sprint on the turf track. A couple of interesting trends emerge here in that 10 of the 13 winners of the race arrived here following a defeat last time out but almost all of the winners do have good form in the book with all bar one having won a Graded race. Unsurprisingly for a US sprint race, Wesley Ward saddles 3 including the favourite Golden Pal who won the Juvenile equivalent last year & is 2 from 3 this year, his only defeat coming at York in the Nunthorpe. He likes to go from the front but will not be given an easy time of it so is probably worth taking on.
Kevin Ryan saddled last year’s winner in Glass Slippers & that likeable mare is back, bidding for a repeat. However, Ryan has a more fancied chance in the shape of Emaraaty Ana who won the Haydock Sprint Cup most recently & was ahead of Golden Pal previous to that in the Nunthorpe. Neither appeal at the prices. The Irish raider, A Case Of You has improved loads this term with a win in the Abbaye last time up & he’s tough to ignore but you’ve got to question whether he’ll appreciate this faster ground.
Betting
At a big price, I fancy the chances of Fast Boat. He’s drawn wide but I don’t think that will inconvenience him as he’ll sit off what’s likely to be a breakneck pace. He’s one of only 3 in the field to have recorded 2 RPRs over 115 this term & is arguably the most suited of the Americans to the minimum trip. This year, he’s won both starts over the trip, a Group 2 at Churchill Downs & a Group 3 at Saratoga when disposing of Gear Jockey who was in receipt of 4lbs. Last time, that rival turned the tables but that was back over 6 furlongs where our selection didn’t get the best passage through & today, they race off level weights. Despite the price, I feel he’s the best of the US contingent so it’s just a case of whether he has the beating of the UK & Irish challenge. At the current odds, I’m happy to pay to find out.
Tips
Back Fast Boat (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 23.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
10.20 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Mile
Preview
There are 14 for the turf mile with the European challenge looking particularly strong. There certainly won’t be an O’Brien 1-2-3 like last year, given he only runs 1, but it would not surprise me if there was a European 1-2-3. Mo Forza is by far the most likely of the homegrown runners having won 8 of his last 9 but this is his toughest challenge to date & his only defeat came in Grade 1 company. Charlie Appleby saddles Space Blues (current favourite) & Master Of The Seas, with both holding chances. The former is as consistent as they can but this trip may just stretch this 7 furlong specialist whilst the latter tends to pull quite hard & may struggle to find the gaps from his stall 1 draw.
Betting
I’m hoping O’Brien doubles up in this race & am siding with Mother Earth. Fillies have a decent record in the race, as does the Classic generation, so I’m hoping that this years 1000 Guineas winner can add to that. Her form is rock solid with her form since reading 2nd in the French 1000, 3rd in the Coronation Stakes, 2nd in the Falmouth, winner of the Prix Rothschild, 3rd in the Matron Stakes, 2nd in the Sun Chariot & 5th in arguably the best race of the year, the Queen Elizabeth II. All of those races were over a mile in Group 1 company so it’s hard to see her not giving her running again today. She’s drawn box 8 so should be able to settle of the pace in a nice position & assuming they go hard up front which is very likely, I’ll be hoping she picks off her rivals late on. All ground comes the same although her best performances of the year have been on firmish ground so all looks in place for a big run. It’s worth saying that she also ran 2nd at the Breeders Cup 12 months ago so a trip across the Atlantic is unlikely to have hindered her in any way. She looks a very solid each way bet.
Tips
Back Mother Earth (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back her here:
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11.40 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Turf
Preview
Another 14 runner field, this time for the mile & a half Breeders Cup turf in which the Europeans again hold sway, being responsible for 10 of the 14 winners of the race. Interestingly however, only 3 of those went off favourite & all 3 were priced no bigger than Evens. This year, favouritism is held by last year’s winner & subsequent Arc 2nd, Tarnawa. She’s a cracking mare & is hard to leave out of calculations but I just cannot be having her at odds of 11/8. Roger Varian’s Teona is her nearest market rival after winning her last 2, most recently the Group 1 Prix Vermeille where she had the run of the race. Previous to that, her form was nothing special & cannot be backed here.
Sisfahan won this year’s German Derby but this is much tougher whilst AOB’s quartet of Broome, Mogul, Bolshoi Ballet & Japan really shouldn’t be good enough. Appleby saddles 2 & his Walton Street has been well touted for this after winning the Canadian International as easy as you like. He has a definite chance but is now a 7 year old & I’d much prefer to be on one with improvement left.
Betting
That leaves me with the other Appleby runner & first string on jockey bookings in Yibir. This 3 year old had been running well but his form has taken a steep upward curve since the addition of a hood. In that first time headgear, he won the Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York, travelling sweetly before running on well for a length & a half victory. He was then brought over to the US for the Jockey Club Derby at Belmont. Racing in last under Jamie Spencer, he was off the pace but stayed on really well for a near 3 length victory. I fancy he’ll be a little closer to the pace in this better field & has a decent draw in 8 to stay out of trouble. In his 11 race career, his record on good to soft or worse reads 3-5-4-2-6 but on good or better, it reads 1-1-3-1-1-1. That 3rd was no bad run either as the 2nd that day was none other than Derby & King George winner Adayar; it was also our selection’s first run for 217 days. He looks to be the best option to prevent Tarnawa doubling up & I’m happy to be on each way.
Tips
Back Yibir (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.50 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
12.40 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Classic
Preview
It’s a big one, the one everyone has been waiting for, it’s the Classic run over a mile & a quarter on the dirt track. Just the 9 go to post but it’s almost impossible to rule out any of the front 6 in the market. 3 year old Essential Quality has an 8 from 9 record including this year’s Belmont & Travers. His only defeat was in the Kentucky Derby & whilst he holds every chance, 5/2 is a bit short in a field of this quality. Knicks Go is another top class performer & will bid to go from the front but he won’t get a soft lead & may not relish the extra furlong so is readily passed over.
Hot Rod Charlie is another that likes to go to the front & his form ties in nicely with Essential Quality but again, the currently quoted odds are cramped. Another front runner is the Kentucky Derby Medina Spirit. Hard to leave out in the same way it’s hard to ignore yet another pace pusher Art Collector but I just feel the pace in the race may set it up for a closer.
Betting
Max Player is the one I want to side with. This 4 year old is a winner of 4 of his 11 career starts & really looks to have peaked at just the right time. As a 3 year old, he was 3rd in both the Belmont & the Travers, and 5th in the Kentucky Derby but a year older, he is maturing fast. He disappointed over in Saudi Arabia but has won his last 2, winning a Grade 2 at Belmont Park & a Grade 1 at Saratoga. He had a tendency to get too far back in his races but the key in those 2 is the fact he’s raced a little closer to the pace so is well positioned for when the pace collapses late. 4 of the last 5 winners have come out of one of the highest 2 stalls so being drawn widest of all is absolutely no hindrance. He’s drifted to somewhat of a crazy price, given this looks like a 6 horse race, 4 of which want to make all & for that reason, I cannot see him out of the first 4 home.
Tips
Back Max Player (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-4)
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