There are seven races on the card to open up the Cheltenham Festival. You can find a preview of the Champion Hurdle here and another for the four non-handicap races including the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle here.
There are two handicaps on the Tuesday card for us to get stuck into and with a good record in the handicaps over the big meetings for the last couple of years we are hopeful of some decent returns from them throughout this week. Here is our take on Tuesday’s pair.
2.30 Cheltenham: Ultima Handicap Chase
Preview
The first handicap of the 4 days is the 3 mile 1 furlong Ultima Chase where we have a field of just 16, 8 below the maximum for this race. There are a few strong trends that cannot be ignored with 4 of the last 7 winners being novices & the fact it generally goes to a fancied runner with those last 7 all going off at less than 12/1 but interestingly, only one of those was favourite. Lastly, the Irish are 0 from 26 in the last 12 years but it’s fair to say that it’s not a race they target (an average of just 2 runners per renewal & only 2 bidding to win it this year).
Kim Bailey has had a brilliant season & Happygolucky is a warm favourite here at just 7/2. He was 4th in the Martin Pipe here last year & in 3 chase starts this term, he’s finished 1-2-1 including a win over course & distance last time out. The only question mark, despite having won over the trip, could be whether he lasts home in a bigger field & therefore likely stronger pace but he ticks a lot of boxes.
Aye Right has had a brilliant season & deserves to land a big one after a series of placed efforts in good races including 3rd in the Charlie Hall, 2nd in the Ladbrokes Trophy & 2nd in the Skybet Chase. The concern is the continuous rise in the weights but his chances are solid. Milan Native won the Kim Muir here last year but hasn’t been great this year although I’m guessing he’s been laid out for the race. The Gigginstown horse bids to overturn the poor record of the Irish & has been well backed in the last 24 hours. At bigger prices, Alnadam has trip & ground concerns despite being in form & Vintage Clouds is on the downgrade despite having finished 2nd & 3rd in this race in the past.
Betting
The each way selection is One For The Team who has yet to win over fences but does tick the novice box & this lightly raced type looks well handicapped. He was a really good hurdler & hasn’t quite matched that yet over fences but there have been positive signs. After unseating on debut, he finished 2nd in a Grade 2 before running creditably in the Grade 1 Kauto Star behind 150+ rated chasers Shan Blue & If The Cap Fits. He was outpaced that day on the easy Kempton track so this stiffer track & extra yardage will help. He did disappoint in the Skybet Chase, where Aye Right was in front, but the ground went against him & that has largely protected his handicap mark. Hopefully the rain stays away &, if it does, this good stayer should be hard to keep out of the frame, with one bookie paying 7 places.
Overall, I think the front 4 in the market are solid enough &, beyond that, the field has a bit of a weak look to it so, at a big price, I’ll have a little bit on 3 of the front 4 filling the 1-2-3 in a combination tricast.
Tips
PLACED – Back One For The Team (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back Happygolucky, Aye Right, Milan Native, One For The Team (combination tricast) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 Betfair Sportsbook
Back it here:
Special Offer
Open up an account at 888sport before the first race of the day, bet £10 on the opener to get a £5 FREE BET on EVERY RACE on the card! Click the image below to snap up this fantastic offer! Use code RACE35. New accounts only.
New customers only • £10 deposit using promo code • Minimum stake £10 at odds of 1/2 (1.5) • Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free bet stakes not included in returns • Deposit balance is available for withdrawal at any time. withdrawal restrictions & full T&C’s apply
4.15 Cheltenham: Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Preview
A handicap for 4 year olds, the Boodles is run over 2 miles & attracts the biggest field of the day with 22 runners. Again, there are a few trends that shouldn’t be ignored with French breds being the starting point (noting that GB bred runners are 0 from 54 in the last 12 years) & 10 of the last 16 winners having just the bare minimum of 3 career starts in a bid to protect their mark. Add to that, 6 of the last 7 winners have been rated 130+, that last stat alone ruling out half of this field.
Paul Nicholls does well in this race & saddles the favourite in Houx Gris but she’s raced just once in Britain when a distant 3rd in a Grade 1. Heavy ground seems to suit best though & he looks a short price at just 9/2. Saint Sam is the other vying for favouritism & hails from the Mullins yard but has had 6 starts over hurdles & connections reach for a first time hood. He’s surely capable of going close but could go with a bit of rain. Coltor is from the Dermot Weld yard but he has an average record at the Festival whilst Cabot Cliffs is a good horse from Skelton’s yard but is probably handicapped accordingly.
Betting
There are just 3 that fit the trends above & 2 of those are the 2 I’d picked out earlier so that bodes well. The first of those is Busselton from the yard who landed this race 2 years ago. After winning on his hurdle debut in France, he moved to Ireland & has been highly tried in 2 starts. He was 2nd in a Grade 2 behind current Triumph Hurdle favourite Zanahiyr, when he had Saint Sam & another of today’s rivals Druids Altar in behind before finishing 3rd in the Spring Juvenile behind Quilixios who is just 4/1 from Friday’s Triumph. That day, he was behind Saint Sam but a 4lb pull in the weights along with better ground could help to reverse that form. He raced lazily that day, losing ground mid race, so it’s unsurprising that the cheekpieces go on & if they do the trick, he’ll be tough to keep out of the money.
The second bet is another French bred runner now trained in Ireland & that’s Riviere D’Etel. On her 2nd hurdle start & first run in Ireland, she went off an odds-on favourite in a maiden hurdle, winning easily by 12 lengths spreadeagling a 17 runner field. Again favourite on her most recent start, she led the field & was outpaced before finishing a close 3rd behind the decent 6 year old Thedevilscoachman. Back against her own age group & with the big field helping this strong traveller, she’s another expected to go close at rewarding each way odds.
Tips
Back Busselton (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back it here:
Back Riviere D’Etel (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 11.00 Betfred BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2021
