1.20 Cheltenham: Ballymore Novice Hurdle
Preview
Another small field to start the day with just 7 going to post for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs. Despite the number of runners, it looks competitive with 3 all trading under 4/1 at the time of writing.
It appears fairly easy to get rid of Optimise Prime & Does He Know from calculations whilst both Bear Ghylls & Keskonrisk are not without chances but have something to find on the book. The former is unbeaten over hurdles but is rated at least 10lbs inferior to the front 3 & hasn’t won in Graded company yet. The Joseph O’Brien challenger Keskonrisk should be suited by better ground & did run a good race behind Supreme winner Appreciate It last time out but he also shouldn’t be good enough the trouble the front 3.
Bravemansgame has won his last 3 over hurdles including an impressive victory in the Challow but this track is a different test & he has 2 strong trends to overcome in that 6 of the last 7 winners were Irish trained & last 11 winners of this had all won at least 1 bumper. Gaillard Du Mesnil is Irish trained & won a Grade 1 last time out but didn’t win a bumper & falls outside the age range with 9 of the last 10 winners all being aged 6 (he’s just a 5 year old).
Betting
The favourite, Bob Olinger, looks hard to oppose. He ticks all the trend boxes & brings the strongest form to the table. Having gone down by a length on his hurdling debut behind last season’s bumper winner Ferny Hollow (who won that from Tuesday’s Supreme winner Appreciate It), he then won his next 2 as easy as you like, including a Grade 1 last time. One other interesting stat is that 5 of the 14 runners to race here in the last 12 years after winning a point to point, bumper & graded hurdle have won & the sole qualifier this year is the favourite. Well backed in the last 24 hours & with good reason, he looks likely to get favourite backers off to a good start.
1.55 Cheltenham: Brown Advisory Novice Chase
Just the 6 runners for this & there’s absolutely no value in the betting market for this. However, like the Arkle on Tuesday, it’s a race to sit back & enjoy as the 2nd of the novice chasing superstars is in action. After Shiskin’s excellent run in the Arkle, it’s the turn of Monkfish here. His odds of 4/11 accurately reflect his chances & he’s expected to trounce this field in fine style.
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3.40 Cheltenham: Cross Country Chase
Preview
The Cross Country chase is an intriguing race to watch but betting wise, it doesn’t look the most competitive. The market has it between 2, last year’s winner Easysland & the dual Grand National winner & two-time winner of this, Tiger Roll.
Betting
The latter is an admirable sort but is on the downgrade & hasn’t run any sort of race since being easily brushed aside in this last year & more of the same is feared here. The favourite, Easysland, won this by 17 lengths last year & is 2 from 3 at the track. In his one start this year in the Glenfarclas in November here, he was only 4th but that was a handicap where he gave well over a stone to every other rival, bar Tiger Roll who was pulled up. Keeping it simple, he looks very likely to follow up in a race with a lack of viable alternatives.
Tips
Back the double Bob Olinger & Easysland at 4.77 Unibet BOG for a 2/10 stake
4.50 Cheltenham: Champion Bumper
This race can throw up the odd shock but it’s generally been one to follow the Mullins yard. He saddles the 1-2 in the market & it looks a match between them; it’s hard to choose between Kilcruit & Sir Gerhard so this is another race to sit back & savour.
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