We are at the stage of the PGA Tour season where the attention usually turns to Asia but with the majority of the continent not hosting sporting events at the minute, the CJ Cup will be played in America for the second year in succession this week.
Jason Kokrak won the tournament last year when Shadow Creek staged it but the competition has moved to the other side of Las Vegas for this edition which means that the American will defend his crown on a different track.
Recent Winners
2020 – Jason Kokrak
2019 – Justin Thomas
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Justin Thomas
The Course
We move from Shadow Creek to The Summit Club, six miles away from where the Shriners was held last year and overlooking the famous Las Vegas Strip. The course holds a tournament for the first time here. It is a Tom Fazio design which is a par 72 which stretches 7,431 yards. We don’t know a huge amount else other than it is set in the desert so the wayward shots are going to get punished whether off the tee or into the greens.
There is a video of the course which has done the rounds which suggests that the fairways are fairly generous and the greens of average side but the rough is said to be four inches thick which is pretty penal, and the 62 bunkers on the course have all had sand replaced in them for the week so they are probably to be avoided. The last time the PGA Tour went to a Fazio design for the first time was the BMW Championship where Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau tied on 27 under. I suspect we’re looking at another low scoring week here.
The Field
There are 78 runners going to post this week headed by the defending champion Jason Kokrak but bolstered by a whole raft of top level players including the man who is a member around here in The Open champion Collin Morikawa. The only real big absentees are Jon Rahm who is away playing in his home country, Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau. The former world number one Dustin Johnson tees it up though.
Twice former winner of this tournament Justin Thomas is in the field, although he won both his wins in Asia, as did Xander Schauffele, another who is looking to regain this title. Rory McIlroy enjoys playing on Fazio designed tracks and he’s in the field this week as are Ryder Cup heroes Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Harris English and Brooks Koepka. The international challenge gets headed by Louis Oosthuizen and last week’s winner Sungjae Im while the British charge is led by Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is a 12/1 favourite to win the title this week. He hasn’t been this short for a while but in his last start he did go 5-0 in the Ryder Cup. Prior to that he wasn’t in the best of form though and the Ryder Cup was three weeks ago so you wonder if he’ll be a little rusty and in what is expected to be a low scoring week it wouldn’t be ideal if he is. If DJ is back to his best and the Ryder Cup wasn’t just papering over some cracks then he’s entitled to go well but I’d need a strokeplay performance from him first.
Xander Schauffele is another who bounced back to form at the Ryder Cup having done not too much between the Olympics and the Tour Championship where he was one of the better players in the event. He is 14/1 to win this title for the second time but I’m not convinced he is playing well enough to win in this company. He isn’t someone I immediately look to in a low scoring event and I prefer others here.
Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas are 16/1 shots this week. Morikawa is on home territory this week and should have a real course knowledge advantage but he has been having trouble with a bad back which isn’t something that I like. I also think he’s better with some give in the scoring which he won’t get here. Thomas begins a new era with ‘Bones’ on the bag this week and that should be an excellent combination but I need to see Thomas’ putter coming to life before I can get involved in him.
Rory McIlroy was last seen balling his eyes out after his singles match in the Ryder Cup so he might have the same rust issues that DJ could have. McIlroy loves one of the tracks redesigned by Tom Fazio at Quail Hollow and if this place resembles that then it should suit his eye and his game but he is another who hasn’t really been in outstanding form for a while. It might be significant that his only top 10 on the PGA Tour since the US Open came at another Fazio track in the BMW Championship. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes well but 20/1 doesn’t do much for me.
Main Bets
Instead I’m going to take the man who finished second to McIlroy at Quail Hollow earlier in the year in Abraham Ancer. Since then the Mexican has won the WGC St Jude and he was in the top 10 in the BMW Championship so he too might have a liking for the Fazio courses. Ancer is a solid ball striker and the rest of his game is much improved. What I also like about him is he has a couple of top five finishes up the road in the Shriners and although he missed the cut last week it was his first outing since the Tour Championship so he might have needed to shake off some rust. Having done that I think the Mexican can be a leading runner here.
Another man who has shown a liking for Tom Fazio tracks is Aaron Wise, a player who comes into this week off the back of a top 10 finish at the Shriners last week. Wise was top 10 in the Wells Fargo and top 20 in the BMW Championship and has a whole raft of good finishes at Quail Hollow and PGA National, both tracks synonymous with Tom Fazio designs. Wise lives in Las Vegas so there is every chance he will have come across this place over the years so he shouldn’t be completely alien to the course and should really lie what he sees. He looks a good bet to me this week.
Outsiders
I’ll play a couple of outsiders this week with the first of those being Erik van Rooyen, who I took last week to ill effect. He bombed out at the halfway mark after making a mess of his second round at the Shriners but just like Ancer, that was his first outing since the Tour Championship so he might have needed the run. What interests me here is that EvR was T10 in the Palmetto Championship on a Fazio design and fifth in the BMW Championship so this place might suit his eye better than TPC Summerlin did last week. There is enough in his form prior to last week and on Fazio courses to merit another three figure play here.
Lastly I’ll take Hudson Swafford who is another who has shown excellent form on Tom Fazio designed courses. His recent form hasn’t been brilliant so I am taking a massive punt on the hunch that he likes Fazio courses. He won the Puntacana Championship on one last season and was sixth in it when defending his title and he was the closest challenger to Garrick Higgo at the Palmetto Championship. If that wasn’t enough he was in the top 20 in the BMW Championship where the best of the best were teeing it up. His form isn’t fantastic at the minute but prior to his second at Congaree his form read MC-MC-MC-MC-45-62 and before the BMW Championship he went MC-MC-MC-37-11 so he doesn’t have to be playing well to put in a big showing on these similar Fazio tracks. At a monster price I’ll pay to see where he finishes this week.
Tips
Back A.Ancer to win The CJ Cup (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back A.Wise to win The CJ Cup (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back E.van Rooyen to win The CJ Cup (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back H.Swafford to win The CJ Cup (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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