The opening semi-final of the Copa America takes place on Monday evening with the first place in the final being filled when for the second time in the tournament Brazil take on Peru in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil walloped Peru 4-0 when they meet in the group stage of the competition and are widely expected to win this match as well but Peru have got better as the tournament has gone on and will be eyeing up the ultimate upset.
Brazil
You would like to have thought that Brazil would have been getting better as the tournament has gone on but there isn’t a whole lot of evidence of that really. They beat Chile in the quarter final and if you consider that they were down to 10 men for the majority of the second half, that was a pretty good result but even during the time they had a full complement of players on the pitch you would have liked to have seen more from them.
I’m sure there is a lot more to come and now that we are truly at the business end of the competition they might look to bring that out from here on in. The positive for the Samba Boys is that defensively they are not getting troubled and even should that change they have two world class keepers to call upon. They have ridden the tag of favouritism pretty well so far in the competition and are two wins away from a successful defence of their title.
Peru
The Peruvians began this tournament with a brutal 4-0 beating at the hands of Brazil but they followed that up by winning two of their last three group matches and then came out on top of a humdinger of a battle against Paraguay in the quarter final, eventually coming through in a penalty shootout having twice surrendered a lead in the second half of the normal 90 minutes. While they have little to lose here, the scars of that opening match might still be a little fresh in their memory.
The one thing Peru have shown since that opening game is the ability to score goals. They have found the net eight times since that beating by Brazil where they were a little bit timid and played into the hands of the Brazilians. The one issue you have to acknowledge with them is there has been no sign of them not leaking goals. The only time they have not conceded came against a pretty dismal Venezuela outfit.
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Team News
Brazil will be without Gabriel Jesus after he was sent off for an assault on a Chilean defender in the previous match. Paqueta came off the bench to score the only goal in the win over Chile in the quarter final and he could start in place of the Manchester City forward.
Peru are also going to be without their right sided attacker for this match after Andre Carillo picked up a second yellow card in the win over Paraguay. That means he is suspended leaving Santiago Ormero as the most likely replacement.
Betting
Brazil have already done a job on Peru once in this tournament and I expect something similar here I have to admit but the caveat is that this time Peru might have the confidence to find the back of the net themselves. They were rabbits caught in the headlights in that first match between the two but they look to have found their feet in front of goal since then and should come into this one with more confidence than they had a couple of weeks ago.
The one thing we can’t get away from in this semi-final is the Peruvian defence which has already leaked a couple of goals to Ecuador in the tournament and three more to Paraguay and this Brazil attack has plenty more firepower at its disposal. Brazil could easily cover a 2.75 goal line on their own in this match but I suspect Peru will have more of a go here so however the goals come about I fancy the over to land in this one.
Tips
Back Over 2.75 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.75 with Bet365
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