Tournament football isn’t just restricted to Europe this summer as on Sunday evening the 2021 Copa America gets underway. The event was originally scheduled for last year in Argentina and Colombia but has been switched a few times and now takes place this summer in Brazil.
That means Brazil will be defending the title they won two years ago in their own country however there are no crowds for this tournament because of the Covid-19 outbreak in that part of the world. The pandemic will lead to teams wanting to entertain and win for their country even more.
Recent Winners
2019 – Brazil
2016 – Chile
2015 – Chile
2011 – Uruguay
2007 – Brazil
2004 – Brazil
2001 – Colombia
1999 – Brazil
1997 – Brazil
1995 – Uruguay
The Format
We have a different format this year. We were going to have that anyway but in this pandemic ridden world we certainly have it for this tournament. Usually there are two invited teams in the event but travel restrictions have put paid to that idea so it is just the 10 CONMEBOL teams taking part this year.
The 10 sides have been placed into two groups of five based on their geographical location with the northern five sides in one group and the southern sides in the other. That was due to two countries hosting the event and to save travel but that format has been kept even though the event has moved to Brazil. Everyone plays the other sides in their group once and the top four progress to the quarter finals where the winners of one group plays the fourth side in the other and the second placed team meets the third placed team from the other group. The quarter finals are 90 minutes and then penalties if level after 90 minutes but the semi-finals and the final will go to extra time before spot kicks.
The Favourites
Whenever a Copa America is on the horizon Brazil are usually the favourites to win the tournament and that is very much the case this year. The 5/4 favourites will attempt to defend the title and will be playing at home, albeit behind closed doors. They also look to win the title for a tenth time which would be some achievement. They have a perfect record in World Cup qualifying so far and I think when you look down the squads there is very much the best man for man so if you are happy to have your dough tied up for a month in a 5/4 shot, Brazil look likely to carry it well.
Argentina will start the tournament as 3/1 second favourites. They will be smarting from losing the hosting rights of the competition but that is the world we live in at the minute. You would have to say the record of Argentina in this tournament in recent times is pretty ordinary. I’ve gone back 10 tournaments on the winners list above and their name isn’t on it at all. When you think of the great players they have had in the last 30 years that is both incredible in its own right and it says something. They have won the tournament 14 times in the past but not since 1993. The big question is whether the likes of Angel di Maria, Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero are still good enough to lead them to success at this level. The jury is still out on that one.
This is a decent enough generation of Uruguay talent, albeit perhaps not quite as strong a group as the team who lifted this trophy in 2011 when Diego Forlan carried them to victory. Their World Cup qualifying campaign has been very patchy with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their six matches. That doesn’t offer up much confidence in their chances and you sense if Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani aren’t at their very best Uruguay are going to struggle to make it all the way this year. They are an each way price around the 9/1 mark but not for me.
Colombia have had a decent decade overall. When you have top class talents to call upon such as the likes of Radamel Falcao and James Rodriguez you are always going to go well but their star has just starting to dim a little in recent times and this could be a big test of their credentials here. James’ fall from grace has been so stark that he doesn’t even make the squad here and Falcao has long since retired so do Colombia have the firepower to get in amongst the big boys here? Their World Cup qualifying results suggest not. Again they are an each way price at 9s but not for me.
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The Contenders
Chile are in the middle of a very dismal World Cup qualifying campaign and if they don’t have a standout tournament here then you suspect there will be consequences for somebody. They have only won one of their six matches in that competition and have their work cut out to be in Qatar next year. They do have a decent recent record in this tournament though having won it in successive years in 2015 and 2016 and made the semi-finals two years ago but a lot will rely on the Inter pair of Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez if they are to do anything but they might be past their best. You should get a run for your money at 12/1 but maybe not a return.
Ecuador are the surprise package in the World Cup qualifying event at the minute. They sit third in the standings with three wins and three defeats from their matches but only Brazil have scored more goals in that competition which is eye catching. Other than a couple of losing semi-final efforts Ecuador don’t have the greatest history in this competition but they host the tournament in three years so maybe a generation of talent is coming good ahead of that. It should be highlighted that two of those three qualifying wins have been in home conditions where the altitude is a huge factor and they don’t have that here but if you bet on form the 40/1 on them is appealing.
Outright Betting
There is so much that can go wrong in the world at the minute for me to be tucking into a 5/4 shot so although I think Brazil are the likely winners and the team to beat I’m going to look for a little bit of value elsewhere in the hope that we play Brazil in the final if everything runs smoothly. The last thing I want to do is plough into Brazil and tie a wedge up for a month and then watch on as Covid-19 decimates them or something like that so I’ll bet the outsiders here.
The outsider I like in particular are Paraguay. They have made a good start to World Cup qualifying with just one defeat in six matches. That came against Brazil on Tuesday evening but they could have had a couple of penalties early in that game which might have changed the tide of that match. If you were being critical of Paraguay you would argue that they have only won one match and drawn four. That tells us they are hard to beat though and with technical talents like Miguel Almiron and emerging talents like Angel Romero and Alejandro Gamarra and a strong defensive unit, it isn’t too hard to see Paraguay having a good campaign. Paraguay are in the good group with Brazil not in their section. Bolivia are so you’d expect Paraguay to qualify and if they can finish above either Chile or Uruguay they will avoid Brazil in the quarter final too. There’s no guarantee they’ll meet Brazil in the semi-final so at 50/1 a small each way punt on Paraguay might yield a decent return.
Top Goalscorer
The other market I’ll bet on is the top goalscorer one where again because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact it is having in this part of the world I’m not going to go too mad on the market. There are the usual protagonists to look at with a favourites chances such as Neymar, Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Lautaro Martinez and Edinson Cavani et al but I’m going to look slightly deeper in the market and take the Brazilian player Richarlison.
Richarlison goes into this tournament off the back of a decent season at Everton and he already has three goals in World Cup qualifying. Neymar leads the way for Brazil but he tends to come out of these tournaments injured which would be a real concern for me. Neymar has five goals in World Cup qualifying but he and Richarlison, along with Gabriel Jesus will play in the front three so why the Everton man is five times the price I’m not quite so sure, penalties and things aside. There is talk of Richarlison following Carlo Ancelotti to Real Madrid this summer so I’m sure he’ll be out to impress in this tournament and at 22/1 he’s worth an each way investment.
Tips
Back Paraguay to win Copa America (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/3 1-2)
Back Richarlison Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-3)
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