The European Tour continues its trek around the continent this week with the roadshow heading to the Netherlands for the Dutch Open, one of the most historic events on the circuit and one which returns after the pandemic forced it to be cancelled last year.
Sergio Garcia won this title two years ago but as he begins to prepare for the big one next week, he isn’t back in the Netherlands to defend the title so we are guaranteed a different champion on a brand new track for the event.
Recent Winners
2019 – Sergio Garcia
2018 – Ashun Wu
2017 – Romain Wattel
2016 – Joost Luiten
2015 – Thomas Pieters
2014 – Paul Casey
2013 – Joost Luiten
2012 – Peter Hanson
2011 – Simon Dyson
2010 – Martin Kaymer
The Course
We are at the Bernardus Golf Club in Cromvoirt in the Netherlands this week. This will be the first time professional golf has been staged here so we are as much in the unknown as the players are. The one thing we do know is the course is a par 72 with the respective four par 3s and four par 5s and it measures 7,425 yards so you get the impression it is going to be a pretty long slog for those who are teeing it up here.
A little bit of further investigation would suggest that it is an exposed heathland track so the wind is likely to be a feature of the event. Generally heathland tracks are second shot golf courses unless a player is properly wild off the tee. Water is said to be in play on 11 of the holes so that would also suggest there is an emphasis on good second shots. Generally courses which have staged this event recently have had huge greens so good long-range putters could be key.
The Field
Unlike the last few weeks when we have had high level European players teeing it up for Ryder Cup points, the field is a reduced one in terms of quality this week. The start of a new PGA Tour season and a few European Tour players winning their card for that hasn’t helped the strength of the field either. Fittingly a week out from the Ryder Cup it is the 2016 Ryder Cupper, Thomas Pieters, who headlines the field this week.
There are four players teeing it up who are inside the top 100 in the world this week. Branden Grace is the best placed at 57 while the other leading Belgian light, Thomas Detry, is 79. Santiago Tarrio and Justin Harding complete the quartet but there are other dangers in the form of Sam Horsfield, Johannes Veerman, Dean Burmester, Rory Sabbatini and George Coetzee who have all won or contended in tournaments over the last 12 months.
Market Leaders
Thomas Pieters comes in here off the back of a top 10 finish at Wentworth and he is the 12/1 favourite to walk off with the title. It was encouraging to see a return to form from him but I wonder if his good showing was a last attempt to push for the Ryder Cup team. It might just be that he has a good record at Wentworth to be fair. The strength of the Pieters game is his tee to green game but you sense this isn’t a track that is going to test that part of the game so others might be more advantaged around here. He’s not for me at 12/1.
Branden Grace and Sam Horsfield are next in the betting at 16/1. Grace should be a level above this sort of event and having won in Puerto Rico on the PGA Tour earlier in the season we know the winning line throws up no issues but a missed cut at Wentworth last week was a surprise and puts me off a little. Horsfield won twice on these sorts of tracks last season but two top 10s since April doesn’t particularly enamour me I must admit. I’ll pass on them.
There was a chance that with a win at Wentworth last week Thomas Detry could have usurped the lot and landed the last place on the Ryder Cup team. That went up in smoke when he was disqualified after the first round so he might have the bit between his teeth here at 20/1. His putter has been very cooperative in recent weeks which is a good sign and he has been third in this tournament in the past so the relatively local man being from just across the border isn’t without a chance but regular readers will know he needs to win before I can take him at this price.
Johannes Veerman, Joost Luiten and Dean Burmester are all next in the betting at 22/1. Luiten carries home expectations with him here although having won the tournament three times that isn’t a burden. A complete lack of meaningful form for too long is more of a concern. Veerman and Burmester look to have the game to go very well around here and carry winning form with them in 2021. I’d rather be on those than the home star. It is 25/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’m after longer hitters who have a warm putter this week and the first main bet therefore is the man who delivered the goods for me at the Czech Masters recently in Johannes Veerman. In terms of the size of the greens and the course this isn’t too dissimilar to that Prague event and the easier test off the tee might allow the Veerman game to flourish here. He has to overcome a mare of a final round at Wentworth on Sunday but he wasn’t alone in having a bad day there on Sunday. He gets it out there off the tee though and has been firing plenty of good iron shots in recently. His putter has been good too. With the exception of Wentworth last week he has been in the top 25 in his last four recorded events for strokes gained putting and with family traits from the Netherlands this might be a more important week for the American than others. At 25/1 I think he’s a more than fair bet.
George Coetzee is another who has to overcome a poor finish to the BMW PGA last week but when you’re not in contention things can easily unravel there with the Sunday pins. Prior to that the South African had been in decent touch. He won in South Africa just last month and we know he has plenty of length off the tee and can hole some putts when the putter cooperates, which by and large it is doing as he has gained more than 12 strokes on the field in the last two weeks with that club even allowing for a terrible final round last week. Coetzee is good in the wind, likes these kind of tests and has Dutch/KLM Open form figures of 3-44-15. He looks overpriced to me this week.
Outsiders
Renato Paratore always fits the bill when I want someone who smacks it a mile and putts well. The Italian missed the cut last week but carded a 68 on the Friday which is no bad score at Wentworth. It was only a couple of weeks ago that he was in the top 10 in Switzerland and having previously won the Nordea Masters we know he likes exposed courses where there is a bit of give off the tee. In his last four cuts made he has been inside the top 20 for strokes gained putting so he is getting a good roll out of the short stick at the minute and as one of the longer hitters on the tour he should give himself a good chance around here. If he can stick a few irons in close he’ll go well here.
Lucas Bjerregaard is still trying to get back into form but as a former winner of the Dunhill Links and a winner in Portugal where the course profile in terms of what is needed isn’t too dissimilar to here, I’ll take the chance he bounces back in style here. He was in the top 10 in the Hero Open last month which is a positive and finished off with three under par rounds at Wentworth last week to further suggest he’s tracking some good form. You don’t card under par around there unless you are controlling the golf ball and putting well. He was third for strokes gained putting last week so that is very much a positive here because those Wentworth greens are not easy to putt on. With little test off the tee this looks an ideal chance for the Dane to contend again.
Tips
Back J.Veerman to win Dutch Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back G.Coetzee to win Dutch Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back L.Bjerregaard to win Dutch Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back R.Paratore to win Dutch Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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