It hasn’t been two weeks since Patrick Cantlay won the FedExCup in Atlanta but the golf world stops for no man and this week the 2021/22 PGA Tour season gets underway when what was the Safeway Open but is now the Fortinet Championship gets the campaign started.
Stewart Cink claimed the early advantage in the race for the FedExCup when he won the Safeway Open last year but the former Open champion is not back to defend the crown so we will get a different winner this year.
Recent Winners
2020 – Stewart Cink
2019 – Cameron Champ
2018 – Kevin Tway
2017 – Brendan Steele
2016 – Brendan Steele
2015 – Emiliano Grillo
2014 – Sangmoon Bae
2013 – Jimmy Walker
2012 – Jonas Blixt
2011 – Bryce Molder
The Course
The tournament name might have changed but the venue hasn’t. Silverado Spa and Resort’s North Course graces the field again this year. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,123 yards which doesn’t sound long, and in the dry and humid air it isn’t long but they grow the rough here making these fairways harder to find. The greens here are pretty small too so accuracy is still important but if you look at the recent winners, length is certainly no detriment given that not many will hit too many fairways.
I like the accuracy players with a good long game around here. If you want the cherry on top in terms of players that we’re looking for then ones who score well on par 5s would be it but this is very much one for pure ball striking. Those who can get hot with the putter are never a bad thing so it might be worth checking the all-around statistic to see who is doing everything well. It is expected to be a little cooler this week which should see the event avoiding the rain.
The Field
This tournament has drawn the short straw this year in that it is a week before the Ryder Cup so it was never really going to attract a particularly strong field. In saying that, somewhat surprisingly the world number one Jon Rahm is here and he’ll be looking to head to Whistling Straits next week with a routine win under his belt. He very much headlines the field but the likes of Webb Simpson, Kevin Na, Hideki Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris will want to be relevant this week.
This is the first week that the Korn Ferry Tour graduates get to tee it up with their PGA Tour card so European Tour regulars such as Aaron Rai and Kiradech Aphibarnrat are in the field, as are the likes of Mito Pereira and Grayson Sigg who had a good time of it at the second tier level last week. Si-Woo Kim, Charley Hoffman, Marc Leishman and Sebastian Munoz are just some of the PGA Tour regulars who will be hoping to draw first blood in the FedExCup race this year.
Market Leaders
It almost goes without saying that Jon Rahm is the emphatic 7/2 favourite to win the golf tournament. That might look a good price when you consider the lack of depth in this field but then you would need to remind yourself that he has only actually officially won the US Open since the start of last season and that raises questions over whether that price is value on a course which isn’t automatically going to allow his strengths to flourish. The other thing to ask is just how invested he is in this week with a much bigger one to come next week. When you put it all together he isn’t for me.
The appearance of Rahm adds plenty of juice to the market though and Webb Simpson probably has an inflated price at 18/1. His form has tailed off a little bit in recent times though and his record here is nothing to write home about with finishes of MC-MC-17 to his name. I don’t think he’s much value at 18s although he might think he has a point to prove having been left out of the US team for next week. That isn’t enough to inspire me into a bet though.
Kevin Na will tee it up as a 20/1 poke this week. He carries plenty of good form into the tournament with him having finished in the top three in three of his last six starts. You could argue he won the Tour Championship a couple of weeks ago when his score was the lowest in the field without the handicap in play. Na certainly might well feel he has a point to prove and might just have the perfect setting to do it on.
Hideki Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris know each other well from their duel for The Masters title five months ago and they will both tee off as 22/1 shots this week. Both men have won big accolades in 2021. Matsuyama won the Green Jacket while Zalatoris was named the Rookie of the Year last season so both carry a high profile into the week with them. They have both been pretty hit and miss since Augusta though which makes them no more than fair prices here.
Main Bets
Kevin Na looks a pretty obvious alternative to Jon Rahm this week and at 20/1 a decent value opposition to him as well. Na is in scintillating form right now with a runner up at the John Deere Classic and the Wyndham Championship and he also won the Tour Championship event outside the two that shot clear of the field a couple of weeks ago. His 72 hole score there was not beaten by anyone so that is good form. He also has a good record here with a runner up in 2015 and another top 10 in 2017. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Na putt as well as he is doing currently and as one of the best ball strikers on the tour, with more than a bit to prove given that he was left out of the Ryder Cup team, the American is my first main bet here.
Doug Ghim ticks a lot of boxes this week too. He hasn’t had that big breakthrough yet but he is regularly one of the straightest off the tee and into the greens and having made it through to the play-offs last season he’ll be eager to go well this term and an opening win would do him no harm at all. It is only the putter which has let Ghim down over the course of his short career so far but he was T14 here on debut last year so won’t have needed to have improved too much to be relevant here. He’s a big enough price to pay to see how well he goes this week.
Outsiders
I’ve been waiting for Stephan Jaeger to get back on the PGA Tour because he is a player I think has a big future and it wouldn’t be the season opener if I wasn’t taking a Korn Ferry Tour graduate to start a new campaign. The German was in fine form on the secondary tour last term and finished it very impressively with form of 4-4-2 in his last three events, three of seven top fives he had that season on top of a win in Louisiana. He is generally very straight from tee to green and at the end of the Korn Ferry campaign his putter caught fire. If he has that form with him here he’s entitled to be dangerous.
Twice towards the end of last season Roger Sloan was the leading player in a tournament for the all-around statistic. That shows his game is in extremely good order and as such I think he could be worth consideration this week. Those two events were the Barracuda Championship and the Wyndham Championship. The former is probably on a par with this event and the latter much better so to finish second with that all-round game at Sedgefield bodes well. He missed the cut at The Northern Trust but just making it there was good form. There is clearly no weakness in his game at the minute and with a top 15 here in the past and coming back a better player now, the Canadian is another worth supporting.
The other player I expect to have a decent season after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour is the man who won the opening event of the Finals series on the secondary tour in Greyson Sigg. Although he was on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, Sigg still managed two top 15 finishes on the PGA Tour with a T9 in Dominican Republic and a T15 at the Barracuda. The latter one of those events clashed with the WGC event last month and he has won since then so he is in pretty good form, isn’t afraid to go low with a top notch approach and putting game and looks to have the profile to progress on this tour. He’s worth chancing at a huge price here.
Tips
Back K.Na to win Fortinet Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Ghim to win Fortinet Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Jaeger to win Fortinet Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back R.Sloan to win Fortinet Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back G.Sigg to win Fortinet Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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