The European Tour pops across the Swiss border this week for the Italian Open, an event which usually carries plenty of importance to any season but with it being the penultimate qualifying tournament for the Ryder Cup, it is fair to say it is a massive week for some.
Ross McGowan had one of the best weeks of his career in this event last year and he will hope to make a successful defence of the title, although he will be defending on a different track to the one he came out on top at.
Recent Winners
2020 – Ross McGowan
2019 – Bernd Wiesberger
2018 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Francesco Molinari
2015 – Rikard Karlberg
2014 – Hennie Otto
2013 – Julien Quesne
2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
2011 – Robert Rock
The Course
We are at the Marco Simone Golf Club in Rome this week. This course last held the tournament back in 1994 but it is preparing to stage the Ryder Cup in two years so I would imagine there are a lot of changes either happened since then or in the pipeline to toughen it up to become a track worthy of staging an event as prestigious as that one. When you consider recent European hosts of that tournament such as Valderrama, The Belfry, The K Club, Celtic Manor, Gleneagles and Le Golf National, they are all wonderful golf courses which test every club in the bag. I’d be surprised if we get any different here.
The course is a par 71 with three par fives and the full complement of par threes. It measures 7,268 yards and is said to have a number of doglegs on it which would immediately lessen the impact of the bigger hitters – very much in Europe’s favour in a couple of years. Previous courses to have hosted this event have needed straight driving and accurate iron play into small greens and I fancy we’ll get something similar here when you consider the blueprint of the game of most Italian professionals is their long game prowess.
The Field
Some of the bigger names in Europe are heading over to Rome for this tournament even though the event remains without Rolex Series status which it carried a while back. We have as many as 16 players inside the world’s top 100 teeing it up this week, which is a lot for what is only a regular European Tour event now, although many of them are contenders for the Ryder Cup team in two years which might have something to do with it.
The headliners for the week are the heroes of the last Ryder Cup in Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari, the latter the home player who has actually dropped down to number 171 in the world rankings. Matthew Fitzpatrick will tee it up for Europe at Whistling Straits at the end of the month and he’s here and if Bernd Wiesberger can win this week he may very well be a teammate of Fitzy over in America. Other notables include Henrik Stenson, Matt Wallace, the winner last week in Rasmus Hojgaard and another home star Guido Migliozzi.
Market Leaders
Matthew Fitzpatrick will be disappointed not to be in Atlanta this week but he has the chance to prepare for the BMW PGA Championship in European conditions here. He is the 14/1 favourite to win the tournament and if he has his best game with him he is going to be hard to beat. Fitzpatrick is straight as a die off the tee and usually money into the greens and good on them so unless there is a bit of a comedown in the drop in class to what he has been operating in, Fitzpatrick looks a worthy favourite.
Tommy Fleetwood hasn’t had the best of seasons over on the PGA Tour but he has already booked his place at the Ryder Cup and will be looking to find some form over the course of this tournament. He is the 16/1 second favourite and on his best form you would have to say that would carry plenty of interest. Even allowing for the fact that he’s operating at a lower level than he is used to here, there is enough in the field to make me look elsewhere given his form.
This is a huge week for Bernd Wiesberger. He can’t completely sew up his ticket to Whistling Straits given the amount of points available at Wentworth next week but a win here would leave him with a foot and a few toes on the plane to the Ryder Cup. He is priced accordingly here at 20/1 but he’s a former winner of this event and but for a double bogey on the last hole on Sunday he would be coming here as the Omega European Masters winner. That double bogey has to have had an effect here though you would think so he isn’t for me.
Guido Migliozzi is the leading home hope this week as far as the market is concerned. He is a 25/1 shot to win on home soil and based on some of his form this season he has to be considered a leading runner. Consistency isn’t his strong point and this is a pretty strong field for a regular season event so they are concerns and I think the Italian is no better than fairly priced I have to say. He isn’t for me although I always respect any home runner. It is 33/1 bar.
Main Bets
As I’ve mentioned in the preview, this is a big week for a number of competitors and one of those is Henrik Stenson. He probably can’t reach the Ryder Cup with his own results now but what he can do is push for the remaining pick that Padraig Harrington has for the tournament. I say remaining pick because I fully expect Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter to pick up two of the three available. Stenson looks to have found his game at just the right time once again. His off the tee game isn’t the best statistically in terms of strokes gained but we can ignore that because he gives up so much off the tee by using the 3-wood rather than the driver. The rest of his game looks in good shape though and he was in the final group in the Czech Masters two weeks ago and finished strongly in Switzerland last week for a pair of top five finishes. That builds confidence which is all that was lacking in the game of Stenson. He looks a big price this week.
Antoine Rozner carded a 62 to finish with at Crans-sur-Sierre last week and not much will provide confidence more than a round like that. If there is something which will bring more confidence out then it is a return to a country when you’ve played well there before and Rozner has plenty of good efforts in Italy from the Alps and Challenge Tour which is a positive. The Frenchman has shown with his two wins that he can compete at this level and you don’t shoot 62 around Crans if you are not striking the ball sweetly. He might just be a big price this week.
Outsiders
Matthew Jordan has been close in two of his last three starts and I sense he might be a big price this week too. Jordan was sixth in the Hero Open in Scotland a few weeks ago and then bettered that to finish fourth in Switzerland last week. One of the reasons why I like Jordan here is because he has a Challenge Tour win in Italy and in this tournament last year he carded a pair of 66s in a T30 finish on what was his first outing in this event at this level. On a track few have seen before confidence has to be a big thing and the Englishman has it so I’ll pay to see how he runs here.
The long game of James Morrison has been in good order for a while and as a result of that he finished second in the Hero Open in Scotland not so long ago when his putter led the field for the week. This is a better field and his putter isn’t the most consistent but not many players will have seen the greens on this course before this week so that might level the playing field with the putter somewhat. With that in mind I’ll pay to see if the Englishman can get himself high up on the leaderboard this week.
Tips
Back H.Stenson to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back A.Rozner to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Jordan to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Morrison to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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