The PGA Tour returns to a familiar spot this week when it heads to Illinois for the John Deere Classic, the annual pre-Open tournament on this side of the pond. This event was cancelled because of the pandemic last year so the two year sabbatical ends here.
Dylan Frittelli is the man who has been able to hold onto the title for a couple of years after winning it in 2019 and he is in the field looking to keep hold of the title. Given that there is a strong tournament in Europe this week, he doesn’t have the best field to beat either.
Recent Winners
2019 – Dylan Frittelli
2018 – Michael Kim
2017 – Bryson DeChambeau
2016 – Ryan Moore
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Brian Harman
2013 – Jordan Spieth
2012 – Zach Johnson
2011 – Steve Stricker
2010 – Steve Stricker
The Course
The strength of the field might have changed but the host course hasn’t as we are back at TPC Deere Run for the first time in two years this week. This has always been a low scoring course but with the rain in the area in the lead up to the tournament and more forecast over the weekend, scoring is expected to be even lower again here so the one thing we have to have on side is a good putter and scorer.
The track has remained unchanged since we were last here so it is a par 71 which stretches to 7,268 yards which doesn’t mean you have to bomb it this week, although the potential softness of the course could appeal to the bigger hitters. Primarily this is a second shot golf course where it is all about setting up as many birdie chances as possible and convert a good percentage of them. Players with hot putters are the ones to be with.
The Field
There is no getting away from the fact that this isn’t a tremendous field this week. There are a few higher profile names in it but most of the stars of golf who are teeing it up this week do so in the Scottish Open rather than here. That leaves Daniel Berger as the headliner for the tournament. The Pebble Beach winner from earlier in the year will head across to The Open next week and he’ll hope to go with a win under his belt.
Other names who catch the eye in the field this week are Sungjae Im, the Ryder Cup captain Steve Stricker, Brian Harman, Russell Henley, the winner from last week in Cameron Davis, the man he beat in the play-off in Troy Merritt and Kevin Streelman. Alex Noren almost stole the Rocket Mortgage Classic from a mile back last week and he spearheads the European challenge this week. The defending champion Dylan Frittelli is here as are former winners in Zach Johnson and Ryan Moore.
Market Leaders
Daniel Berger is a general 10/1 favourite to win the tournament and against this field I would imagine that he will fancy his chances. He has finished in the top 15 in three of his last five tournaments including last time out at the US Open so he is in decent enough form to take an event like this down. He was fifth here in 2017 so there is a lot to like about Berger this week but I’m rarely one for betting 10/1 in a golf tournament and I won’t begin here.
Brian Harman comes next in the betting at 14/1 and as a previous winner here who usually putts very well he has to be respected. Quite how many times he has teed it up as a second favourite before remains to be seen though and it will be interesting to see how that different kind of pressure plays on his mind. Harman comes here with a three week burst of 8-19-5 finishes and will quietly fancy his chances. He feels a little short to me though.
Sungjae Im comes in third in the market. He isn’t going over to The Open next week but he is targeting the Olympics so how much his attention will be on this week remains to be seen. Im is one of those players who can win whenever he tees it up but generally when he does contend it is in higher scoring events than this one is expected to be. Im registered his first top 10 since The Honda Classic last week so he arrives in good form but that Olympic week being so big puts me off.
Russell Henley is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 20/1. He is 18/1 to win this week and he should really be in contention but he has cost me dearly a couple of times recently and my trust in him has disappeared. He is usually very good with the short stick and it was only a few weeks ago that he was the 36 hole leader in the US Open but he should really have the won the week after and faded badly. I’ve not got that out of my system enough to back him here.
Main Bets
I’ll go for a couple of main bets this week with the first of those coming in the form of Seamus Power who I think has an event of this nature in him. He needs to take advantage of the bigger players not being here because he is on the outside looking in when it comes to the FedEx Cup play-offs and he is running out of time to get into the top 125. A decent week will get him inside the bubble and as someone who comes in here with four top 20s in a row in better fields than this in the main, he has to be respected if his putter stays hot.
I’m not usually one for taking veteran players but given the weakness of the field this week I’m happy to change that approach and back Zach Johnson. Johnson has been very up and down this season but at this stage of his career there are only certain courses he can contend on because of his lack of length. This is one of them. He loves it here. He has a win, three more seconds, a couple of thirds and a fifth placed finish here so he knows the course like the back of his hand. Although he hasn’t been great this season a top 10 at The Honda Classic shows he can still perform and if that is going to happen it will most likely be here where he loves the track. He can still roll his rock and should go well here.
Outsiders
Brandon Hagy went pretty well in the main last week with his putter cooperating and as someone who can smack it a fair way he can take advantage of the key holes around here. It is no guarantee that his putter will continue to work but we are not going to need it to be elite levels against this opposition this week. Hagy was second at The Honda Classic which is a standout performance and finished sixth last week. I’ll back him to continue his form here.
I took Satoshi Kodaira last week on the strength of his putting stats and when he opened with a five under 67 I thought I was onto something but he couldn’t back it up in the second round and ended up missing the cut. In a weaker field here though I’m prepared to give him another chance because he started so well last week. Even in missing the cut his strokes gained putting figures were still in the positive to back up what I said. He’s still a three figure price and might just be overpriced this week.
Tips
Back S.Power to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back Z.Johnson to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back B.Hagy to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Kodaira to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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