The European Tour returns from its week off this week when it heads out to the Algarve for the Portugal Masters, one of the few events in recent times which has remained a constant on the calendar despite the pandemic and the struggles it has provided.
George Coetzee finally got himself over the line here last year and he will attempt to make a successful defence of the title. A pretty good field for this stage of the season will look to take the crown off of him.
Recent Winners
2020 – George Coetzee
2019 – Steven Brown
2018 – Tom Lewis
2017 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2016 – Padraig Harrington
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Alexander Levy
2013 – David Lynn
2012 – Shane Lowry
2011 – Tom Lewis
The Course
We are back at the Dom Pedro Victoria Course in Vilamoura this week. This is a resort track which is a par 71 playing to a full yardage of 7,191 yards. It certainly isn’t a long track. It is a place that suits the longer hitters and aggressive players. Scoring is always low in this tournament so when selecting bets you need to be looking for players who will be playing front foot golf, as we’ve seen throughout much of the events in this part of the world this season.
The fairways are pretty wide here and the greens are on the bigger side so this does tend to come down to a short game and putting contest so those who can attack the flags with shorter irons certainly have an advantage. The weather in this part of the world is rarely a problem either. The one thing to note is that although this is a resort track, it does tend to produce a classy winner in the main.
The Field
We are at the time of year where players are more selective with their attendance. The season finale in Dubai is a couple of weeks away and being fresh and peaking for that will be more a priority than coming here but there are still a fair few leading names who are teeing it up, not least Matt Wallace and Thomas Pieters who are both seasoned European Tour players and winners. Andy Sullivan and Steven Brown are among the former champions who are on show.
The champion and the runner up from a year ago are in the field too in George Coetzee and Laurie Canter while the Scottish Open winner Min Woo Lee is also teeing it up this week. Other players of note who are teeing it up this week include Robert MacIntyre, Richard Bland, Eddie Pepperell and Sam Horsfield while the likes of Andrew Johnston, Adri Arnaus and Calum Hill will be be looking for the title. Rasmus Hojgaard is back this side of the pond to play as well.
Market Leaders
Matt Wallace will tee off as the 16/1 favourite to win the competition this week. He arrives after a decent week in Japan on the PGA Tour and is a former winner in Portugal, albeit at the other event that used to be held rather than this one. He was in the top 10 on his last visit to this course though and in terms of pedigree he does look like the standout player in the field. His last win was three years ago though and that is more than enough to put me off backing him here.
Thomas Pieters will begin the week as a 22/1 shot to land the title this week. He has floundered as a favourite a few times in the last couple of months or so therefore it might be no bad thing that he is a little more under the radar heading into this tournament. He has one top 10 in four visits here but there hasn’t been a great deal in either his course form or his recent form which suggests he is about to win here. He’s pretty easy to pass over at the price.
The 2020 runner up Laurie Canter and the Scottish Open winner of this year Min Woo Lee come next at 25/1 on the best prices. Both tick the necessary box of being long enough off the tee. Canter has top fives in his last three non-links golf events so he is clearly hitting the ball well but coughed up a good winning position at Valderrama recently. I’m not sure that should be held against him though as that is a tough track. Lee finished second at Valderrama and although he hasn’t got any form around here he certainly has the tools to go well. It is 28/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Laurie Canter is surely a winner in waiting and while the way he blew up at Valderrama didn’t look great I’m going to allow him that because that is such a hard course to win on. He is playing so well and I was encouraging by the fact he followed up the disappointment with a good week in Mallorca. That suggests to me he is ready to win, albeit on an easier course than Valderrama. He gets his hands on one of those this week and we know he can go well here after he finished second last year. There appears to be no weakness to the game of Canter right now and if he gets into the position to win again I think he’ll snap it up this time.
Renato Paratore had a good spell in Spain with finishes of 9-25-11 and while the middle effort doesn’t sound much that was at Valderrama where he was in a tie for fourth with 18 holes to go. He wasn’t the only found who found the course as the strong presence of Matt Fitzpatrick at the top of the leaderboard too much to handle but to be in that position on a course as tough as that offers up plenty of potential for him here on an easiest test which suits his skills much better. He has always been long off the tee and his putter is working very nicely at the minute and if that continues he shouldn’t be far away.
Outsiders
Julien Guerrier is another player who caught my eye over that Iberian swing. He only played two of the three events, finishing third in the first one and T25 at Valderrama where he was right up with the pace after shooting 67 in the opening round. Three 73s followed but whenever you are shooting 67 at Valderrama you are playing good golf. This lesser test will ease the pressure on his long game, although he traditionally drives the ball very well. He was in the top 10 here last year and if the putts keep dropping he can go close once again.
Niklas Lemke had a good time of it in the Mallorca Open last time out where he finished in the top 10 and given that top 10 finishes have been fairly irregular for the Swede of last that result might be important, as might the fact he finished in the top 10 here last season. He is another who is always one of the longer off the tee and his iron play has improved a lot recently hence that finish a couple of weeks ago. He has been putting pretty well recently as well and when you put all that together a replica of it here will see him finish high up. I’ll pay to see just how high.
The other player to catch my eye in those Spanish events was the home player Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez and I expect him to keep up his good form here. He was sixth in this tournament last year and that was the second time he has teed it up in Portugal. The other time was the year before on the Challenge Tour when he finished second so the Algarve climate serves him well it seems. Like most Spaniards SGR is very good on and around the greens and in Mallorca last time out he ranked 13 for GIR. If he can fire his irons like that again then he’ll be a danger once again.
Tips
Back L.Canter to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Guerrier to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back N.Lemke to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back R.Paratore to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back S.Garcia Rodriguez to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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