The European Tour makes its return this week to complete its series of events in the desert as the Qatar Masters is played out. This used to come in between the Abu Dhabi and Dubai events but has a later date in the calendar.
Jorge Campillo won the event before the sporting world stopped last year and he is back to attempt to defend the title. He will do so against a competitive field, albeit one lacking some star names who tee it up stateside instead.
Recent Winners
2020 – Jorge Campillo
2019 – Justin Harding
2018 – Eddie Pepperell
2017 – Jeunghun Wang
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Branden Grace
2014 – Sergio Garcia
2013 – Chris Wood
2012 – Paul Lawrie
2011 – Thomas Bjorn
The Course
We left the Doha Golf Club for the first time last year and remain away from there in these stranger times. The event remains at the Jose Maria Olazabal designed Education City Golf Club this week, a course which is a par 71 which measures 7,307 yards. It is usually a par 72 but the final hole is a par four for the professionals this week. Having had a tournament here we now know a little bit more about the traits of the course which will hopefully be useful.
Water is in play on a lot of the holes and with large greens which are likely to have pins tucked away, accuracy from the fairway is going to be of significance this week. The wind is always a factor in this tournament and I don’t expect the change in venue to alter that in any way. If you look through the statistics of last year the overriding things were driving accuracy and short game perfection so I’m looking for straight drivers who have a decent short game.
The Field
This was never going to be a great field in comparison to the other three that were put together in the desert firstly because it is a standalone week in this part of the world and there are still travel restrictions that make it less appealing but also because one of the biggest events of the season is taking place in America this week. There is still a competitive field teeing it up though and someone will get the win and all the Race to Dubai and exemption benefits that come with it.
In terms of the world rankings it is Andy Sullivan who is the best player in the field this week but the Belgian pair of Thomas Detry and Thomas Pieters will be out to deny him another title at this level. Aaron Rai, Rasmus Hojgaard, George Coetzee, Antoine Rozner and Laurie Canter are the other players in the top 100 who are here looking to rise in the rankings. Brandon Stone and John Catlin are among a few players with European Tour titles to their name who tee it up this week.
Market Leaders
Thomas Pieters heads the betting this week at 18/1, a sign of how competitive this field is when you consider that quite often these days favourites for tournaments are in the single figure range rather than pushing the 20/1 barrier. Pieters played here last year and finished outside the top 20 and you wouldn’t say the accuracy necessity that this place has would play to his strengths. I respect him as one of the better players in the field but he’s poor value to me.
His Belgium teammate at the World Cup, Thomas Detry, is the second favourite this week at 20/1. Bizarrely he would offer more appeal to me even though he just doesn’t convince me on Sundays and it is for that reason I’m ignoring him. I think his accuracy and short game is marginally better than that of the bigger hitting Pieters but I’ve said before that I can’t be backing Detry at these prices until he has a win under his belt. He still doesn’t have it so I’m not going near him.
Antoine Rozner does have a European Tour win to his name though and he is a 22/1 third favourite for the tournament. Rozner had a pretty decent time of it in the desert which you would have expected given that he won in Dubai towards the end of last year and he certainly has the credentials to go very close this week. The only reason I’m not on him this week is I prefer others at better prices but I wouldn’t put anyone off the Frenchman.
Andy Sullivan and Matthias Schwab are the next two in the betting at 25/1. Sullivan should have won that event in Dubai which Rozner won but you get the feeling that because he didn’t his game has suffered a little as a result. That run tells us he should be there or thereabouts in the lesser company that he is in here but I’d like to see his short game come back to the levels it was when he was winning on the UK Swing before I get involved again. Schwab feels like a winner in waiting at this level but maybe on more open tracks.
Main Bets
I’ll take a couple of main bets this week, the first of them being on Aaron Rai who almost went unnoticed at the WGC a couple of weeks ago when he finished inside the top 20 in a week where his short game was phenomenal when you consider the class of the field. Nobody hit more greens in regulation than him and only four men bettered his fairway finding. It was on the greens he let himself down but firm and fast American greens catch out poor putters whereas these slower ones due to the exposed nature of the course give them more of a chance. It is only four months ago that Rai was lighting it up in Scotland and Ireland so he remains perfectly good at this level and when accuracy in the long game is needed he is often there at the business end. He feels overpriced at 33/1 this week.
The other main bet I like here is Adrian Otaegui, a player who I hope will be inspired by his Spaniard compatriot taking down the title here last year, on a course designed by one of the most famous Spanish golfers of them all. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if Otaegui takes a liking to this course because as we saw in plenty of those UK events last year, he is accurate off the tee and has a pretty decent short game. He finally got over the line in Scotland in October when he fired rounds of 62 and 63 along the way. His form has been questionable since then but he hasn’t really been on a course that suits his game. They’ve either been bombers paradises like many in this part of the world or stellar fields opposing him. He has neither issue this week so feels like a good bet.
Outsiders
John Catlin has done absolutely nothing of note since he won the Irish Open last season. He has missed five of his six cuts since then and the only cut he didn’t miss was when there wasn’t one however we are still talking about a man who has won at Valderrama where he ranked fourth in fairways hit and fourth in strokes gained around the green for the week. He followed that up with that win in Ireland where he was sixth in fairways hit and second in scrambling. In between the two he hit more fairways in Portugal than anyone on his way to another top 10. My point is if you sift through the last six events where like Otaegui big, deep high quality fields or long courses have worked heavily against him, there is plenty of form that suggests he should go well here. Of course we are taking a chance that he rediscovers it but there aren’t many players who are coming here with any golf in the last month so form is relative anyway. I’ll take my chances. A Valderrama winner six months ago just can’t be 125/1 in this company.
My last pick this week is a man who actually blew away some cobwebs last week in Louis de Jager. He played in the South African event with no great success but an active golfer is an advantaged golfer in my eyes this week. There aren’t many with better short games in the last year or so than the South African and his iron play has generally been pretty good too, he just needs to find a bit of form off the tee which is where I’m hoping his activity gives him an early advantage. Even then on his last start last year he was inside the top 20 in fairways hit and greens hit in the South African Open so it isn’t like his long game doesn’t exist. That week he gained almost 14 strokes on the field from tee to green so when his long game clicks it does so in a big way. I’m prepared to throw some pennies at the South African in this company on this week in particular given how long it has been since so many last teed it up.
Tips
Back A.Rai to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Catlin to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Otaegui to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back L.de Jager to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
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