The Scottish Open will come to a close inside Venue Cymru in Llandudno on Sunday when Luca Brecel takes on John Higgins for the Stephen Hendry Trophy and the third Home Nations title of the season.
These two have already been in the final of four tournaments between them this season and now one of them is guaranteed to walk off with their first trophy of the campaign. The first to nine frames will get their hands on the big prize.
Luca Brecel
The Belgian ace Luca Brecel will be competing in a second final in as many Sundays after he went down to Zhao Xintong in the concluding match of the UK Championship last week. He deserves immense credit for putting that disappointment behind him and going again and not just going again but maintaining his form to make it through to this final. The loss last week is likely to give him even more motivation than usual to succeed in this match.
Brecel has won tight matches this week and then he has dominated others like his semi-final. The 6-1 margin of victory over Anthony McGill in the last four was emphatic but his opponent barely showed up in the match. Brecel did what he needed to do but he wasn’t great himself, although as he admitted in his post-match interview he was under absolutely no pressure and he might well have gone up a gear or two if he needed to.
John Higgins
Sometimes you get to the final of a competition and are not sure who has been the best player of that week getting there. That isn’t the case here. He has beaten some really good players and breezed past the lot of them in the main. He had to overcome the challenges of Ryan Day and Martin Gould in the best of seven part of the competition and since then has seen off Dave Gilbert and Ronnie O’Sullivan and done so for the loss of just four frames.
This will be the fourth final of the season for Higgins but the Scot is still to get his hands on any silverware to date so he is going to be massively motivated in this final. He would have been anyway when you consider that this is his home event even though it isn’t being played in Scotland this year, but he certainly won’t want to lose a fourth final in succession. Without being disrespectful to Luca, this is the first one Higgins will have been expected to win out of those matches so it makes sense that this is his best chance.
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Head to Head
These two have met on four previous occasions with John Higgins winning the lot. Their last meeting was at the Northern Ireland Open earlier in the season where Higgins won 4-2. This is the first time they have met over a two session match and it is also the first time they will have played in a final against each other. They have played a semi-final of the Welsh Open in 2015 and until this match that remains the most significant match between the two. Not only does Higgins lead 4-0 in match wins, he is 18-9 up in frames in those matches which suggests he has tended to win relatively comfortably against the Belgian. History definitely favours the Scot here.
Betting
History might favour the Scot but despite that I think Luca Brecel has something to offer in this final and if he can keep close order going into the evening session then he’ll get John Higgins thinking about the finals he has lost this season and a door might open for the Belgian to step through and win the title. That is easier said than done though because Higgins looks to be bubbling along nicely right now. I would expect Higgins to win but the mental baggage he is carrying makes him a no bet at 4/9. Brecel might be value but I’d rather take what there is if he’s close after the afternoon session than pile in straight away.
Instead I’ll take Higgins to make more than 1.5 centuries in this final. He made two in defeat against Mark Allen in the Northern Ireland Open final so that shows he doesn’t need to win this match to cover this line. Higgins beat Brecel earlier in that competition and banged in three centuries in the four frames he won so that certainly shows the potential for him making two here. He made a ton and a 98 in his romp over Ronnie O’Sullivan on Saturday and also made three tons against Brecel in that Welsh Open semi-final in 2015. Brecel isn’t going to play safe too often and that might open the door for Higgins here. Xintong made a century and a 99 against Brecel in the UK final last week so there is plenty of mileage in the even money that Higgins pops in a couple of tons here.
Tips
Back J.Higgins – Over 1.5 centuries for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
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