The Florida Swing ends on the PGA Tour this week with possibly the best tournament of the lot in the form of The Honda Classic, a prestigious event which carries plenty of history and is never easy to win on a great golf course.
Sungjae Im lifted silverware for the first time in PGA Tour career here last year and the Korean will be out to make a successful defence of the title. A competitive and in form field will be looking to take the trophy from him.
Recent Winners
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
The Course
We are at the PGA National as ever this week. This is renowned for being one of the toughest par 70s on the circuit and that is proven by the winning score often being in single digits, which doesn’t happen very often on the PGA Tour these days. The trickiness comes in the form of the ‘Bear Trap’ which is the three holes 15-17 where the water is heavily in play and nerves are likely to be jangling, especially if the wind is up like it has been throughout the Florida stretch to date.
You have to strike the ball well around here. Length can come in handy but it doesn’t take priority over accuracy. There is an exposed element to this track so being able to handle the wind is another requisite and as with all tough courses scrambling abilities are essential. You need to play this course from the fairway with pinpoint iron shots and a decent putter the way forward. It is a true all-round test and a great way to end the Florida Swing.
The Field
When you consider this tournament has drawn the short straw of sitting between a Players Championship and a WGC event we have a field shorter on quality than what we would usually get here. It is still a competitive field capable of delivering high quality golf though with the defending champion Sungjae Im very much one to watch. Daniel Berger was expected to be his main challenger but he pulled out on the eve of the event.
Other notables in the field are Lee Westwood, who comes in here with successive second placed finishes, The Open champion Shane Lowry, clean ball striking Adam Scott and former champion Russell Henley. Popular players like Rickie Fowler, Ian Poulter, and Harold Varner III are also in the field this week. Chris Kirk, Brendan Steele and Cameron Tringale are among quite a few who are looking to get back in the winner circle.
Market Leaders
After Berger pulled out, Sungjae Im is the 12/1 favourite for the week. Regular readers will know that I’m no backer of a defending champion, least of all a player who is defending a tournament for the first time in his career. I don’t think Im is carrying the same confidence he was when we arrived at PGA National last year but he is a class act. He never has a week off and after a run of big events that is another concern here.
Joaquin Niemann is the 16/1 second favourite this week and it would be a huge surprise if he doesn’t land a title again soon given how well he has started the season. He has just gone slightly off par since opening with successive seconds in the Hawaii tournaments but he is aggressive which often pays around here and there aren’t too many weaknesses to his game. The only thing not to like is the price, which just feels a little skinny even in this company.
Lee Westwood is the third favourite at 20/1 this week. His form certainly needs no explaining after he threatened to win both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, finding a world class golfer too good for him on both occasions. There aren’t many of them in this tournament though and Westwood finished in the top five here last year. My concern is he’s been in contention for a couple of weeks now and that takes its toll mentally and emotionally let alone physically for a 47-year-old. He admitted after Sunday that he didn’t have his strength in his legs and that’s enough to swerve him for me here.
Shane Lowry is next in the betting at 22/1. He had an excellent time of it at The Players Championship and if that ball striking performance is a sign of what is to come then with his short game skills he has every chance this week but I’m not sure about backing an Irishman after St Patrick’s Day(!) and in all seriousness we probably need to see more good ball striking days from him to believe that last week wasn’t the anomaly and is becoming the norm. He’s a little short for me with that in mind.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of them being a man who I’m losing a little bit of patience with in Russell Henley but who I will chance one last time given this is a course he has won on and has a pretty decent record on overall. He won here in 2014 and he was in the top 10 again here last year and although his form has tailed off in the last couple of weeks, the ball striking he showed leading up to that is enough to give him one last chance. His putting has gone off the boil recently which is usually very much his strength but this has never been a putting contest so it might be the week he comes good. I’ll pay to see.
Brendan Steele was fourth here last year and it is now four top 15 finishes in the last five years here for a man who is more associated with playing well in California rather than Florida. Steele didn’t have his best ball striking week with him at Sawgrass last week but prior to that he was hitting the ball very nicely. He was in the top 15 for driving accuracy in four of his six starts in 2021 before last week and the two he didn’t register that number in were the two pro-am events where the figures can be skewed by not all the courses having the numbers. In the man he has been good into and around the greens too, he just needs his putter to warm up but he gained four shots on the field with the flat stick last week so there are signs that is turning around. He’s a huge runner if that continues.
Outsiders
I’m going to throw some coins at three darts this week with the first of them being Jim Furyk who just has to keep going well here. His age might be increasing but the number of fairways and greens he hits are showing no signs of dropping and fairways and greens are the key to success this week. Furyk has teed it up five times on the PGA Tour or the Champions Tour in 2021 and his lowest driving accuracy rank is 13 and only once has he been higher than that in the GIR statistic too. He scrambles well enough these days he just needs the putter to co-operate but putting is not as essential here so that would give Furyk a good chance of emulating and bettering his ninth placed finish here two years ago.
Brice Garnett doesn’t miss many fairways and although his overall form isn’t the best he was only one shot from making the cut at Sawgrass last week and the week before that he gave a ball striking clinic on his way to a top five finish in Puerto Rico which shows he can handle the wind. His long game statistics are great and he was actually the best scrambler in the field in Puerto Rico. I’m not going to hold a missed cut at Sawgrass against him and although he missed three cuts prior to heading to Puerto Rico one of those he carded two under for 36 holes at Phoenix. He’s playing better than his results suggest and this course might just suit him nicely. He was just outside the top 10 here last year and at a huge price I’ll pay to see what he’s got in him here.
Brian Stuard is another who rarely deviates from the fairways and in the main he hits a lot of greens as well. He is another who needs the putter to co-operate but again that weakness isn’t exposed here as much as in other places. Nobody found more fairways than him off the tee at Sawgrass last week and that was firm, fast and demanding off the tee. His iron play wasn’t great but that is an anomaly. He’s usually very sharp into the greens. Stuard is one of those shorter hitters who can only have a good week on certain tracks. He has four top 30 finishes here and when you think we usually get a much stronger field for this tournament that form isn’t too bad. He’s plenty big enough to chance.
Tips
PLACED – Back R.Henley to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
PLACED – Back B.Steele to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Furyk to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back B.Garnett to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Stuard to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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