The first round of The Masters is so often viewed as the curtain raiser for the spring and summer of sport and it takes place on Thursday and Augusta National opens its gates to the best golfers in the world, and perhaps just as importantly in these times a sprinkling of a crowd too.
We’ve heard so much about the course this week, how firm and fast it will be and everything and on Thursday we get to see it for real, while the players get to see it competitively for the first time. Everything is in place for a cracking day of golf.
First Round Leader
As always the first market we will tackle here is the first round leader one. Immediately we look at the format and the weather to see if there is any bias anywhere. The format is back to the traditional one where everyone goes off the first throughout the day so there is no split tees and waves like in November. The forecast is set fair for much of the day. There is an ounce more wind in the afternoon but it’s a lot warmer so the ball flies further. I’ve been caught out too many times taking the early tee times to avoid the extra wind but late starters have an incredible record in the first round.
I happen to think Jordan Spieth is going to go pillar to post in this tournament. He has led after 18 holes three times in his career already and he’s the last man out on the course so he has the ideal tee time to make it four 18 hole leads but I’ve already got half of the kitchen sink invested in him this week so I’ll take another player out late who only just missed out on my outright selections. That is Scottie Scheffler who finished inside the top 20 here on debut in November and who should relish the firm and fast conditions as we have seen throughout the year. Scheffler was brilliant at the Matchplay, Phoenix and the WGC Workday so these courses where you have to use slopes to get to the pins are right up his street. He is out five groups from home and with a tee to green game to die for and a taste of these greens now he can open up well at 45/1.
Thursday 3 Balls
The 88 players will go out mostly in three balls on Thursday although there are a couple of two balls as there isn’t enough to fill the card with three balls. Everyone goes off the first tee this year with the first tee time being 13.00 BST and the last group out at 19.00. That last group already has our attention as it contains Collin Morikawa along with our two outright picks Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith. There are plenty of decent groups out on the course on Thursday with the early TV coverage likely to be dominated by the Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele group which is out at 15.42 BST. Daniel Berger, Paul Casey and former champion Patrick Reed go off at 15.54 BST. I like bets in two of the groups.
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Sebastian Munoz/Henrik Stenson/Robert Streb
Match tees off at 13.36 BST
The first of the groups I like for a Thursday bet is actually the fourth group out onto the golf course as the Colombian ace Sebastian Munoz goes out with Robert Streb and a shockingly out of form Henrik Stenson.
Often in these tournaments, especially this one, I like to find three balls where one of the players is here on past champion or amateur status and turn it into a two ball effectively. That isn’t actually the case here but it may as well be with the form Stenson is showing currently. He comes in here off the back of six missed cuts in a row and scores closer to 80 than 70. Even when he was playing well he’s only once broken 70 in the first round here so he’s out of the equation. Streb ended a run of five missed cuts in a row at The Honda Classic but he’s done little of note since winning the RSM Classic and his four rounds here in the past read 80-76 and 81-75. We can forget about him and back Munoz to produce enough tee to green brilliance and enough flair to keep his scorecard tidy enough to win this group. Anything close to par will be enough to win this.
Robert MacIntyre/CT Pan/Mike Weir
Match tees off at 16.42 BST
The second group which interests me is one of the middle three balls out onto the golf course as the debutant Robert MacIntyre goes out alongside CT Pan and the former champion Mike Weir in what should be a pleasant group for the Scot, but not one I think he will win.
I like MacIntyre and am expecting big things from him over the next few years but it is well known that you need a spin around here to feel comfortable and probably more than one unless you are special. This is his first competitive round here and that is a negative. Weir is here on past champion status and while he showed in November he is no mug around here, his last six April first rounds read 73 82 76 76 76 72 which doesn’t make great reading. Indeed in 21 tries he has only broken 70 in the first round once. He isn’t for me so it is Pan that I like here. Importantly he comes here off the back of a third placed finish at The Honda Classic where he putted the lights out of PGA National and was very fluent into the greens – the two ingredients you need here. He has only had one spin around here which was in November when he finished seventh but he opened with a 70. If his is writing that sort of number on his scorecard here he should be winning this group.
Tips
Back S.Scheffler First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Munoz to beat H.Stenson & R.Streb for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Coral
Back him here:
Back C-T.Pan to beat R.MacIntyre & M.Weir for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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