The PGA Tour host their flagship event this week when the stars of golf head to TPC Sawgrass in Jacksonville for The Players Championship, a tournament which marks a year since the sporting world ground to a halt.
The tournament was cancelled after 18 holes last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic which means that Rory McIlroy is the current holder of the title. He will be out to keep hold of it against a very strong field looking to rip the crown away from him.
Recent Winners
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Webb Simpson
2017 – Si Woo Kim
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Matt Kuchar
2011 – KJ Choi
2010 – Tim Clark
The Course
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is the venue for this wonderful tournament once again this week. Golf fans will not need any description of this famous track, famous for the 17th hole which is a short par 3 island hole. This is one of the toughest tests of golf on tour where the pressure is on over almost every shot. Only the bravest golfers win around this track.
It goes without saying that with all the water around this course accuracy is paramount. This is a very tough course so scrambling is a key requirement as well which makes the bogey avoidance statistic another key one. Both tracks used in the Florida Swing to date have been firm and fast and the point of moving this tournament back from May to March was to keep conditions similar. TPC Sawgrass is a par 72 course which only measures 7,189 yards so it is not a long track and bombers don’t tend to get much advantage here.
The Field
Near enough anyone who is anyone in the game of golf is here for the fifth major of the season. Rory McIlroy heads a pretty illustrious list of past winners here which includes Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia and Matt Kuchar among others while there are stacks of players looking to win this title for the first time such as Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele.
There is a decent English challenge this week which includes Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and last week’s runner up Lee Westwood. The winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational is also here in Bryson DeChambeau while rising stars such as Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann and Viktor Hovland will be looking to win the biggest title of their careers. Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama and Branden Grace are just some of the international challengers this week.
Market Leaders
The world number one Dustin Johnson is the 12/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. He was fifth here a couple of years ago but that is the only time in plenty of attempts that he has cracked the top 10 let alone go close to winning. The simple fact is that a lot of his strengths are negated around here. That doesn’t mean that he can’t win but it does make him a pretty short price when you consider how many players are suited here and the danger that the golf course carries.
There are three different second favourites who are all 16/1. They are Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. Rahm has an impressive record here and led after three rounds two years ago and if I was backing any of this trio he is the one I would be choosing, but even he is a little tight on the price when his power is negated. McIlroy’s iron play last week was awful and you can’t win here without good iron play while DeChambeau is another whose big advantage is negated. He had an emotional win last week too and I never like to be on a player following one of those as adrenalin can only last so long.
Justin Thomas is next in the betting at 18/1. He has been acceptable without being special in recent times but he has finished third here in the past, although in five trips that is the only time when he cracked the top 10 at this venue which would be something of a concern. At his best you could see him going close but I would say he was in better touch the last time he arrived here than he is right now so I’ll leave him alone. It is 20/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of them being Webb Simpson, the 2018 champion who should fit this place like a glove. We have the benefit of all the Golf Channel coverage in the lead up to this tournament where the various press conferences are shown live and you couldn’t get away from how delighted Simpson is to be here this week because he knows he can contend. He was just outside the top 15 either side of the year he won here so his recent form on this course is very good. He ranks high in ball striking, scrambling and bogey avoidance which are the three statistics I like this week and at 22/1 he looks a standout bet to me, especially when you consider he has two top 10s in his last three starts.
Another man who arrives here in decent form that I like is Daniel Berger. I always felt like he has underachieved around here, especially when his liking for bermuda is well known. It might just have been that the tournament profile was too big for him in the past but that certainly isn’t the case now that he has been in things like the Presidents Cup and the final group of the US Open as well as winning away from TPC Southwind. Berger was the winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-am last month where his all-round game was immaculate but his long game has been in good order for a while now. His putting has come on since the lockdown and it is no surprise that he won the Charles Schwab Challenge and put another three top three finishes together immediately after the return of the sport. He has kept that going in 2021 and should feel comfortable enough to contend around here now.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders who have caught my eye this week with the first of those being Russell Henley, another who should have gone better here than he has in the past. Henley has displayed a terrific long game in the last 12 months or so and his scrambling is very good where he sits in the top seven on tour for that discipline. He is number two in bogey avoidance and keeping those off the card is a big thing this week. Although it is a few years ago, Henley has carded a 65 and a 66 around here so we know he can play the golf course and with some of the best ball striking stats around and the ability to scramble he should run well here.
Chris Kirk has been on my radar for much of this season and after a very positive week at Bay Hill last week he is back in my team of players this week. I like him for a few reasons but mainly his ability to get up and down and the fact he is hitting the ball so well, two factors which can be key around here. Kirk was second at the Sony Open earlier in the year and made the top 10 last week. He also has a couple of top 20s at the two usual pro-am events so he is scoring nicely. He gained 7.5 strokes on the field from tee to green last week and more than four shots around them on a tough golf course so that is impressive. That course is slightly more open off the tee so he should be even better on this tighter track and I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Another player who I’ve had on my radar and backed in one or two events this year is Andrew Putnam and I’m happy to be involved in him again this week after he was one of very few who shot under par on a tricky Sunday on a tough setup at Bay Hill last week. You know you are hitting the ball well if you put that sort of scorecard together and with him ninth in scrambling and sixth in bogey avoidance this season he immediately jumps off the page at us. He doesn’t stat as well in the long game department over the course of the season but that is because the tail end of 2020 was terrible for him. Over the last two months he’s been one of the best in the game in the long game department, coming inside the top 25 in fairways hit in his last four starts. He has three top 10s in his last five outings and looks a massive price if he can overcome inexperience here.
Tips
Back W.Simpson to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-10)
Back R.Henley to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back D.Berger to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-10)
Back C.Kirk to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-10)
Back them here:
Back A.Putnam to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-10)
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