Someone is going to walk off $15 million richer on Sunday evening when the final round of the Tour Championship is played at East lake in Atlanta, as the PGA Tour campaign concludes with the FedExCup champion being crowned.
Realistically it looks like four men are in with a chance of landing the crown and the big money but every spot a player finishes up the leaderboard the better the money is. It increases in huge numbers too so nobody lacks for Sunday motivation.
Round 3 Recap
It looked like a two horse race heading into the third round and the same two men are the most likely winners. Patrick Cantlay has his fate in his own hands as he holds a two shot lead on 20 under par. Jon Rahm sits second on 18 under with Justin Thomas giving himself a glimmer of hope back on 15 under par. Kevin Na is the only player within 10 strokes of the lead. He sits on 13 under par going into the all important final round.
It was a good day for us betting wise on Saturday as our two ball bet flew in by four shots. You don’t very often get winners by such a margin in these two balls because these are the 30 form players of the season but once Cameron Smith found the water on 15 when he was already trailing Viktor Hovland, the result of their match was put beyond doubt. That puts us up for the week in the match department and we’ll hope to build on that during Sunday.
Sunday Betting
There is only really the outright market to go at on Sunday but that is heavily dominated by two men. Patrick Cantlay is now a warm favourite to win this title with Jon Rahm the closest challenger. Rahm might be an ounce of value in it at 6/4 but you have to think Cantlay is going to be tough to chase down given that he’s had the lead for the first three rounds and hasn’t surrendered it yet. He also isn’t doing a whole lot wrong either.
Of the others Justin Thomas is probably the only one who can catch the other two without help from them but 12/1 when trailing by five feels a little skinny for a man who is fighting his putter. Kevin Na and the rest need help from those in front of him and while one might give him it as they chase down Cantlay I’m not convinced all three would. Xander Schauffele is a place contender in both markets now so I’ll leave the outright betting and hope he delivers for me.
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Sunday 2 Balls
Once again the field are out in two balls for this final round with the leading pair once again being Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay. They set off for their last round of the season at 18.55 BST with the challengers of Justin Thomas and Kevin Na going out 10 minutes earlier. Once again the coverage is going to show the entire round so the early part of the coverage will probably centre on the Rory McIlroy and Harris English pairing which sets off on its journey at 17.25 BST. I’ll take the one bet from slightly later than that.
Sergio Garcia vs Cameron Smith
Match tees off at 17.55 BST
Two men who are playing out their final round of the season for prize money only go off in the middle of the pack when Sergio Garcia is paired with Cameron Smith for the last 18 holes of what has been a decent enough campaign for both.
There were seven shots between these two on Saturday as Garcia carded a four under 66 which was fuelled by being the second best player in the field from tee to green. Smith shot +3 for his 18 holes and no part of his game functioned particularly well. I wasn’t surprised at that though. This is a course that puts a lot of pressure on the long game and Smith is notoriously weak in that department and it found him out in the end. Garcia isn’t playing for absolutely nothing. This is his last chance to make a sizeable impression on Padraig Harrington in the race for a Ryder Cup pick and I think he can do that by seeing off the Aussie here.
Tips
Back S.Garcia to beat C.Smith for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with William Hill
Back him here:
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