The latest PGA Tour season comes to a close this week when the leading 30 players on the campaign head to Atlanta where someone is going to walk away a rich man in the Tour Championship. The FedExCup is on the line with a cool $15 million heading the way of the winner.
It was Dustin Johnson who secured the bounty last year when he was crowned the champion and he has qualified to make it through to attempt to defend his title, although he is going to have to come from behind if he is to do that.
Recent Winners
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Tiger Woods
2017 – Xander Schauffele
2016 – Rory McIlroy
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bill Haas
The Course
As ever we go to East Lake Country Club to determine the latest multi-millionaire in the sport. We’ve had a different mix of courses in the play-offs so far. The first one was sodden and jumped all over and then last week we had a course which wasn’t nearly tough enough for the event it was hosting. Now though we are back to ball striking purity and a solid test of all departments of the game on a track that will see good shots rewarded but bad ones penalised.
The course is a par 70 and it can stretch out to 7,362 yards, although this time of year the air is always quite humid in this part of the world so the track is unlikely to play its full yardage. A look back in history will tell you there is nothing for insane power here, instead we need players who keep the ball in play and can have a good week on the greens. Accuracy into the greens is probably the most important factor here as it isn’t the easiest course to scramble on.
The Field
30 players have made it through to this final event and in a way they can all play with some freedom because they are guaranteed $400,000 just for showing up this week. It is Patrick Cantlay who is in control of his own destiny after he won the BMW Championship last week while the winner of the first play-off event, Tony Finau, will be his closest challenger for the FedExCup title when the first tee ball is hit this week.
There are plenty of household names in the field as you would expect this week with the best 30 players of the season on show. Bryson DeChambeau lost out in a play-off last week but can make amends and some here while Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Abraham Ancer are just some of the great players who tee it up on the various scores this week.
Starting Leaderboard
We are once again using the handicap system that got used last season with the leader of the point scoring getting an early advantage and the players who just snuck into the field starting a good distance back, in line with how they have performed over the course of the campaign. The leaderboard will start this week as follows:
East Lake starts as follows:
-10 Cantlay
-8 Finau
-7 Bryson
-6 Rahm
-5 Smith
-4 JT, English, Ancer, Spieth, Burns
-3 Morikawa, Im, Hovland, Oosthuizen, DJ
-2 Rory, Xander, Kokrak, Na, Koepka
-1 Conners, Hideki, Cink, Niemann, Scheffler
E Berger, EVR, Garcia, Horschel, Reed— Will Gray (@WillGrayGC) August 29, 2021
Market Leaders
Although there are four strokes between them at the outset, Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay are joint 7/2 favourites to win the title this week. Cantlay has a very indifferent record around here and comes off the back of a big win last week which I always think is a negative. Rahm looks bulletproof but whether you want to be on a bloke who is four behind at a relatively skinny price remains to be seen. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but he isn’t for me.
Bryson DeChambeau starts three back of Patrick Cantlay and he will begin the week as an 11/2 shot to win the title. He has spoken ahead of the week of how East Lake negates his strengths and he has to overcome the angst of a play-off defeat last week. He’ll also undoubtedly get repeatedly pestered about the feud with Brooks Koepka with this being the last time the two will be seen ahead of the Ryder Cup. He’s definitely not for me.
Tony Finau will go into the tournament in second place after his win at The Northern Trust the week before last. That means he is two back from Cantlay and given the record of the BMW champion here you could easily argue that Finau is a virtual leader of the tournament. East Lake doesn’t play to the strengths of the big man either though and although 15/2 offers better value than the three above him in the betting, there isn’t enough there for me to pull the trigger.
Justin Thomas is the only man in the tournament market who is shorter than 25/1 to ride off with the big money. He is an 18/1 shot to win the competition but he’ll have to do it from six back if he is going to be the champion. That means he’ll need a much better output from his putter than he got last week where it reverted to type and he holed absolutely nothing. At his best he could bridge this gap but if that putter doesn’t cooperate he’s got no chance. He’s not for me.
FedExCup Betting
You can pick holes in the five leading players starting the week, maybe with the exception of Jon Rahm who does look nicely tuned in for the test here, so it might be worth looking down the field for a bet in the main tournament market this week. If the top five don’t win then a group on four under are effectively the virtual leaders of the tournament. Even if you want Rahm as a worthy favourite they only tee off two shots behind him which isn’t a lot over 72 holes.
That might all bring Xander Schauffele into the game. Schauffele has a wonderful record around here with his 72 hole finishes being 1-7-2-1 and with a good start on a course that he loves he’ll fancy his chances of chasing down the big guns. Schauffele is effectively playing with the house money this week as he won the event he most wanted to this term when he won Olympic gold. He hasn’t done a huge amount since then but the WGC was the week he got back from Tokyo and had to go through all the time zones, the first play-off event went against him when the deluge of rain arrived but he shot a 62 in the second round of that tournament. A course where -25 doesn’t even get you in a play-off isn’t one which suits him which accounts for last week. This one does and he’s a big price at 28/1 to win the FedExCup, seven times the price of Rahm even though he’s only five points bigger than him in the 72 hole betting, he looks great value here.
72 Hole Betting
I like Schauffele to win the FedExCup but I’ll have a much bigger bet on him to be the leading man over the 72 holes this week. That is the tournament without the bonus strokes applied. The ones right at the back of the field need snookers for the big money but it won’t stop them trying to get it. You just can’t take those risks here. I don’t think anyone worse than -2 starting out will be a factor in the 72 hole score market. Schauffele is in a position where smart golf gets it done and he’s the master of that here. He’s massive at 12s in this market.
Sungjae Im was the closest challenger to the two who scooted clear at the BMW Championship last week and I expect him to take that confidence with him into this tournament. The key thing was his putter last week. He gained more than six strokes on the field with the putter there and generally when he putts well he goes very well. In terms of the 72 holes, Im has finishes of 15-12 around here in his two outings but last year he opened 68-64 so he was eight under at the halfway mark. When you consider the 72 hole winner Schauffele was -8 at the 36 hole mark, the Korean was right there. He’s coming into form and around the 30/1 mark is worth a bet here.
Tips
Back X.Schauffele to win Tour Championship/FedExCup (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 29.00 with Coral (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
Back X.Schauffele to win Tour Championship (72 holes) (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Back S.Im to win Tour Championship (72 holes) (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Back them here:
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Unlucky Kev. Schauffele didn’t put himself in the picture until it was to late. As for Stenson in Europe. great first round but looked thoroughly disinterested after an indifferent second round