There is one tournament left before The Masters which means that there is a last chance for those not heading to Augusta next week to get into the field. In order to do that they will need to win the Valero Texas Open which gets underway on Thursday.
This event was one of many that was lost to the pandemic last year which means that Corey Conners, the champion in 2019, will be the man defending the crown. He’ll do so against a better field than you might expect this close to Augusta.
Recent Winners
2019 – Corey Conners
2018 – Andrew Landry
2017 – Kevin Chappell
2016 – Charley Hoffman
2015 – Jimmy Walker
2014 – Steven Bowditch
2013 – Martin Laird
2012 – Ben Curtis
2011 – Brendan Steele
2010 – Adam Scott
The Course
Once again the tournament takes place at TPC San Antonio this week. Prior to the last renewal it was one of the tougher tracks on the circuit but overnight rain on the Saturday and little wind on the Sunday made it very soft and the players on show warmed up for The Masters but tearing the course up. It is likely to be firm and fast this week so we might get back to that complete all-round test where hitting greens and having a hot putter are musts.
The track is a par 72 which measures 7,435 yards with some lengthy par 5s which even the longer hitters can’t reach. The trick to this place is hitting these large, undulating greens in regulation and then holing putts on them. Usually with that in mind there is a need to play this course from the fairway but if the course is set up to mirror Augusta then the rough might not be so bad. Either way I want hot putters here.
The Field
Considering we’ve just had an arduous World Golf Championship event and next week is the one they all want to win, we have a pretty good field here, one which is headed by the home star Jordan Spieth. He isn’t the only big name in town though with the likes of Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson and Matt Kuchar among the star names who are teeing it up. They will all be in The Masters next week but there are plenty in the field who aren’t.
Chief among those will be Charley Hoffman and Cameron Tringale while some of the rising stars who tee it up this week such as Sam Burns and Harry Higgs are also playing to tee it up next week. Branden Grace, Abraham Ancer and Hideki Matsuyama will lead the international charge this week while a fairly weak European contingent will be headed by Sepp Straka and Danny Willett. There are plenty of Texas regulars mixed in with newcomers to form a competitive field.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson was the early favourite for the tournament but he withdrew at the start of the week and that has left Texas favourite Jordan Spieth as the man favoured by the bookmakers. He is 12/1 to win a first title of the year and having been knocking on the door for the last six weeks or so you suspect it is going to open eventually. I just wonder whether he is teeing it up to win this week or to fulfil a contract or just to get some leisurely rounds in before he bids for a second Green Jacket next week. He’s a little short for me here.
Another man who is too short for me is Tony Finau. The one-time PGA Tour winner is 14/1 to win this week and while he has the class to win it there is just something missing there. I still haven’t been able to forget how he didn’t win the Genesis earlier in the year when his opponent in the play-off was stuck up against a tree. You would think he’s too good to keep on not winning but I don’t get the impression that winning is everything to him so nobody with that approach carries my money at 14/1.
Scottie Scheffler is a 16/1 chance to land a maiden PGA Tour title on home soil. The obvious negative to him is the fact he played seven very tough rounds of golf in five days last week. That isn’t so much a physical issue but the mental taxing that competing at that intensity is likely to have a comedown this week. The positive is that based on last week we know he is hitting the ball well so if he has got enough petrol in the tank he has the tools to win. I’m not convinced he will go the four days on top form though.
Hideki Matsuyama is a 20/1 shot to win the tournament this week. The obvious issue for anyone considering backing him is his putter rarely warm up let alone gets hot. He might pass much of the field in the long game department here, especially if the rough is meaningful this week, but you have to putt well on these massive greens and I just don’t trust the Japanese ace with the short stick enough to merit backing him. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’ll go with the three main bets this week with the first of them being a man who is near enough at home this week in the shape of the Texan player Ryan Palmer. Palmer is having a pretty good season overall and has the long game and the form to go well around here, a couple he has multiple top 10s at over the course of his career. I don’t want anyone who went too deep in the Matchplay last week which is why I’m going nowhere near Scheffler and Kuchar but it might just have been a blessing in disguise that Palmer lost in the group playoff as it gives him enough time to be fresh and ready for this challenge. Palmer made a lot of birdies last week so his putter is treating him well and we know he’s decent enough in the wind. I think he’s a good chance here.
Cameron Tringale is bordering on the price I wouldn’t take for a player who has never won on the PGA Tour but his record around this course just about keeps him in the team for me this week. He has a couple of top 10s here and only an indifferent second round two years ago would have had him a lot closer than T17 which he finished in. Tringale has a bunch of top 20 finishes this season, the latest of which came at the ultra-tough The Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago where he stalled in the final round but he wasn’t the only one to so that. His stats that week on a tough track were very encouraging and as someone who hits a lot of greens and holes plenty of putts his time has to come in the end. I’ll hope it is this week.
Lanto Griffin has already won in Texas in his career when he landed the Houston Open in the past and he’s another I fancy to go well here. Griffin is a wonderful putter and his approach play has improved all the tie he has been on the PGA Tour. He was in the Matchplay field last week but never came out of the group. As with Palmer though I don’t necessarily see that as a negative. Although he finished way down the field on his only start here in 2018, he fired a second round 67 and he’s obviously a much better player now having won that event in Houston and competed strongly in plenty of others. If he takes a shine to Texas again he’s primed for a big week.
Outsiders
With this being the only golf tournament on this week I’ll take three outsiders as well to make up my team. The first of those is Andrew Putnam, a player I’ve been following for a while and am not prepared to give up on just yet. Putnam has three top seven finishes in his last six starts and although he missed the cut at The Players last time out he’s in decent enough form. The reason for that is because his putter has caught fire and indeed prior to his trip to Sawgrass, he had gained more than six and four strokes on the field with the putter in the previous two tournaments. He is a steady player from tee to green and with his putter hot I expect him to get over the line again soon. It could very easily be this week.
Sam Ryder caught my eye at The Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago and so it was even more encouraging that he had a decent week in the Dominican Republic last week where he finished in a tie for second behind Joel Dahmen. On both occasions his putting statistics were very strong and that could be key here because in the main he is one of the best players into the greens on the entire PGA Tour. Although he has no overall form to write home about here in the past I doubt he’s arrived with his putter in such good order. Even then, two years ago he went round in 66 blows. Given his form is much better now I’ll pay to see how he goes.
The last bet comes in the form of the former champion Kevin Chappell whom I’m prepared to chance at a price three times the one he was when he won this event back in 2017. Since then he has had all kinds of injury issues so there is a risk attached to it but he went very well at The Honda Classic where he gained almost five shots on the field with the putter and was in the top 20 for the week into the greens. If you can perform creditably at PGA National then you can do it on a tough track like this one. We already knew he could perform here from when he won the tournament but with a few other top 10s on his resume here as well this is obviously one of his favourite stop offs. He needs to start finding some form again after his injuries and if The Honda was a sign he’s over all that he could be an enormous price here.
Tips
Back R.Palmer to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Tringale to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Ryder to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back K.Chappell to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back L.Griffin to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Putnam to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
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