The golfing action across the pond leaves Florida and heads to Texas for the second WGC event of the year this week as the WGC Dell Matchplay is played out having been forced to miss a year after the Covid-19 pandemic took it off the calendar last term.
That means that Kevin Kisner is the man who will defend his title in this exciting format of the game on a course which really brings the nuances of matchplay out. The top players in the world are looking to add a big title to their CV though so the American will have to tough it out to win.
Recent Winners
2019 – Kevin Kisner
2018 – Bubba Watson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Jason Day
2013 – Matt Kuchar
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Ian Poulter
The Format
The 64 men in the competition have been drawn into 16 groups. The groups have been seeded so each one contains a player from the four pots which were made up of players ranked 1-16, 17-32, 33-48 and 49-64. As such you would think the better players in the world have something of an advantage here.
The tournament begins with the group phase where each player plays the other three in his group once over the first three days. The winner of each group goes into the last 16. If there is a tie on points at the end of a group a play-off takes place. The last 16 and quarter finals are on Saturday with the semi-finals and the final on Sunday. Every match is over 18 holes. Extra holes will be played to determine the result of knockout matches.
The Course
We are at Austin Country Club for the fifth time this week and I have to say I love this course for Match Play. It is a par 71 measuring just the 7,108 yards but it is a good tee of the all-round game and offers the right blend of tough holes with the risk and reward options that makes this format so entertaining. Generally this is a course for aggressive golf and the format makes for that as well so players who are confident into and on the greens should be favoured.
You would think that judging by the lack of size of it that everyone could feature here but there is a clear bias for the monster hitters, as evidenced by three of the champions here. Kevin Kisner has shown that you can prosper on this course without excess length but in the main it is a course where you can get an advantage if you get it out there. That might be accentuated this week with the course likely to play soft in the early stages due to rain in the area.
The Field
As ever for the Dell Matchplay the leading 64 players in the world are invited to compete. Five of them declined the opportunity which can often be the case with The Masters only a couple of weeks away and seven rounds needed to be played in five days to win this thing but we have 64 of the top 69 in the world rankings here so the field this week is of a high quality. Collin Morikawa will be looking to make it successive WGC wins after he won the WGC Workday last month.
Kevin Kisner is the man who is looking to defend the title this week while previous Austin winners of this event, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson will all be looking to regain the crown. In a Ryder Cup year the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Paul Casey can lay down a marker for the Europeans while Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele will be looking to do similar for the Americans.
Market Leaders
The recently crowned Players Championship winner Justin Thomas is a 12/1 favourite to land a first Dell Matchplay title this week. For all of his undoubted class he has only come out of his group once in four attempts on this course though so that is something to take into account. He also has a nasty group draw with three accomplished match players in his section so although he was in great touch at Sawgrass he could have his work cut out just making it through to the knockout stages here.
Big hitting trio Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson are all 14/1 to lift the trophy. I have to say I’ve got DeChambeau down as the man to beat around here this week but I’m not one for betting short prices in 18 hole knockout play so that is the only thing stopping me from backing him. Jon Rahm is a former finalist here and should go well but I sense he isn’t quite in elite tip top form at the minute. Dustin Johnson has been a little cockeyed off the tee in recent events and there is a lot of trouble for those who miss the fairways here which is a huge negative on his part.
Rory McIlroy is a 20/1 shot to regain the title he won the year the event was held in San Francisco. He has only come past the last 16 once here in Austin though which is a primary concern but his form is much more of one. He hasn’t been hitting the ball all that well and news broke earlier in the week that he is working with a new swing coach. In time that is likely to be a good thing but how much can change in a day or two remains to be seen. McIlroy is another who is in a tricky group.
Collin Morikawa is 22/1 to win the tournament this week and if iron play counts for anything in this format then he is entitled to be a leading contender. For all he has won in the game already he is a debutant in this event and I always think you need a bit of course knowledge around here. You certainly need to be able to putt and that is where the doubt comes in regarding the American. I like him a lot but he’s relatively easy to overlook here.
Main Bets
I’ll take a player in each quarter this week in the hope we get someone deeper into the event. There are four bookmakers paying eight places which is where I will bet as we only need one knockout match win for a place payout rather than the two. The first main pick I like is Paul Casey, a player with an incredible matchplay record and one who is playing well this season as evidenced by the fact he has won the Dubai Desert Classic and inside the top 10 in the Pebble Beach pro-am, Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship this season. In his six starts worldwide in 2021 he has been in the top 10 of the all-round ranking five times and in the top 20 in the other one so every part of his game is working nicely. Casey knows all about the nuances of matchplay and while not having his regular caddy on the bag this week is a bit of a concern, Fooch, Francesco Molinari’s current bag man and former partner of Justin Rose, is a perfectly adequate replacement. Casey is in a group I expect him to come out of and then he’ll play the winner of the ‘European’ group of Hatton, Westwood, Garcia or Wallace, none of whom will hold any fears. He might meet world number one Dustin Johnson in the quarter finals but we’ll have a place payout secured by then so Casey looks a great bet to me.
The other main bet I like has a slightly harder route to the knockout stages given that he is in the same group as Justin Thomas but the record that Louis Oosthuizen has in this event makes me take him despite that. Thomas has only come out of his group the once in Austin so it isn’t like he is bombproof or anything like that. Only once in the four runnings of this event here in Austin has Oosthuizen not come out of the group so his record in this tournament and the Presidents Cup is exemplary. I’ve always said that enjoyment of one on one combat is a large part of the battle here. Oosthuizen ticks every box here. His long game is excellent, his short game very good and he can putt well too. Just as importantly he can play well in the wind and while Thomas is a tough hurdle to overcome, his draw will open right up if he can get out of the group. At the prices he is definitely worth a go.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of longer shots as well in the hope that they get a run going. I’m not usually one for debutants in this tournament but Max Homa seems to play tough courses well and having landed himself in a section where the two seeds are also debutants and questionable putters there is a good chance that someone down the rankings might make it into the quarter final from this spot in the draw. Homa won at Riviera earlier in the season and he has also won at Quail Hollow and you don’t win at either of those places if you are not hitting the ball well and don’t have a decent all-round game. Inexperience is a concern but he has a perfectly winnable group and then would face the winner of the Hovland group for a place. I’ll pay to see if he can go deep on debut.
It is always hard to leave Ian Poulter out of the equation when it comes to matchplay and there are actually a couple of reasons to back him here. Firstly he knows he is sliding out of contention in terms of the rankings and Ryder Cup reckoning so a big week here can rectify both of those issues and it won’t be lost on him that beating seven men in mano et mano combat is a heck of a lot easier than 156 over four days. We know Poulter has that burning desire that pumps him up in this format of the game and he can be fearless with it. The other key thing is he’s landed in the Rory McIlroy group which isn’t a bad one to fall into. If he takes care of Rory on Wednesday he could blow his half of the draw wide open and at three figures he is almost a no brainer bet.
Tips
Back P.Casey to win WGC Dell Matchplay (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Oosthuizen to win WGC Dell Matchplay (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Homa to win WGC Dell Matchplay (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back I.Poulter to win WGC Dell Matchplay (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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