It is the final regular tournament in the PGA Tour season this week and as has become tradition in recent times it is the Wyndham Championship which offers up the last chance for players to get into the top 125 of the FedEx Cup rankings and qualify for next week and secure their playing rights.
Jim Herman took full advantage of that opportunity last year when he won the tournament and enjoyed all the benefits that go with it. He is back to defend his title and has a pretty good field to beat this year.
Recent Winners
2020 – Jim Herman
2019 – JT Poston
2018 – Brandt Snedeker
2017 – Henrik Stenson
2016 – Si Woo Kim
2015 – Davis Love III
2014 – Camilo Villegas
2013 – Patrick Reed
2012 – Sergio Garcia
2011 – Webb Simpson
The Course
We are back at Sedgefield Country Club this week. Once again the Donald Ross designed track is a par 70 which measures 7,131 yards now after a small lengthening of the 14th hole. This is a low scoring tournament so immediately you should be looking for players who are capable of playing golf on the front foot but not necessarily those who belt it miles as length isn’t really in play here as you can see from the list of past winners above.
Generally the recipe for success here is hit the fairway, hit the greens and hole some putts so we are looking for the accurate types who can get hot with the putter on medium paced greens. The rough isn’t particularly thick this week so although that will encourage the bigger hitters, this is a week for those who are accurate rather than long to take centre stage and build up to the opening playoff event next week in style.
The Field
There aren’t the amount of big names in the field that you would expect for a PGA Tour event but in fairness this week is about those at the lower end of the rankings rather than the bigger names so the tournament copes fine. It does however have The Masters champion in the field in Hideki Matsuyama. Former winner Webb Simpson who is synonymous with this place is also teeing it up as is the defending champion Jim Herman.
There are plenty of other players who have had decent seasons who are in the field. Jason Kokrak is one of those. He is pretty much guaranteed to be the final event at East Lake but a win here would send him into the play-offs in style. Will Zalatoris, Brian Harman, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley and Si Woo Kim have all impressed at times this season too. It is a big week for the likes of Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose, both of whom are on the outside of the top 125 looking in and in Fleetwood’s case needing to get in there to keep his playing privileges.
Market Leaders
Webb Simpson has an incredible record around here and he is the 12/1 favourite to win the tournament as a result of that. He has only won the tournament once and it was a while ago but the last four years he has finishes of 3-2-2-3 so he has only been beaten by six players in four renewals of this event. When you then factor in that he is one of the two standout players in the field, the American looks a very worthy favourite here.
Hideki Matsuyama is the second favourite at 14/1 and that is understandable given the season he has had which was capped off with that wonderful win at Augusta National back in April. The Japanese star has a top 10 finish around here in the past and comes here off the back of losing the play-off for bronze in the Olympics and then losing in the play-off for the WGC title last week. He’s in the sort of form that should have him as a genuine title contender.
A trio of players come next in the betting at 28/1 which shows how well fancied those main two are. Will Zalatoris is the first of those but he’s becoming ever more overrated on his run at Augusta earlier in the year which is something of a concern. Jason Kokrak is the one who would interest me at this price given that he has won a couple of times this season while Brian Harman shouldn’t necessarily be overlooked although he doesn’t win or threaten to win as often as he should do.
Main Bets
Kevin Na has the sort of game that should go well around here and I think he might be overpriced this week at around the 45/1 mark. It wasn’t long ago he was the runner up at the John Deere Classic and he had a creditable effort in the WGC last week where he shot four under for the weekend so there is a lot to like about the American. He is one of the straighter drivers in the game and has the skills to find the greens here. He has really improved on and around the greens so in a field that is lacking in the depth of big names Na feels overpriced to me.
The other main bet I like is the Chilean youngster Mito Pereira, a player who has won nearby on the Korn Ferry Tour and who has taken to the PGA Tour like a duck to water. He missed his first cut at this level after successive wins on the Korn Ferry Tour but since then he has gone 34-5-6-3-39. The latest of those efforts I’ll forgive him for because he came back from the Olympics for it but the three weeks prior to that he played some lovely golf. He is clearly a huge talent and one who hits a lot of fairways and greens. That is the diet required this week and at the prices I think he’s a leading runner.
Outsiders
Chez Reavie is never far from my shortlist when this tournament comes around and he has done enough recently to stay in my staking plan once again. He finished in the top 20 in the John Deere Classic and the 3M Open but it is his driving accuracy numbers which really reel me in. Going back to the week before the US Open his driving accuracy ranking has been 1-1-11-2-13-4-7. He finds a lot of fairways and with the greens as firm as they are here that is a huge starting point. This course isn’t long so he won’t have to pound anything and that makes him dangerous.
Andrew Putnam seems to drop in and out of form quite alarmingly but he came back to form at the Barracuda Championship last week where he finished second and it might well be worth paying to see if he can back that form up this week. Once again the course not being terribly long is very much a positive and he is a player who hits a lot of fairways and greens. The putter clearly cooperated last week and if it does it again this week then he could be a leading light at a big price.
My final bet is a real shot in the dark in Sean O’Hair who hasn’t been around it at this level for a while but there have been signs in the last few weeks that his game is coming back together again. He finished just outside the top 10 at the John Deere Classic and then inside it at the Barracuda last week despite a slow start. In both those tournaments his tee to green statistics were excellent. We know when he is confident he is a decent putter and at a monster price I’ll pay to see if it all comes good this week.
Tips
Back K.Na to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Reavie to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Pereira to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.O’Hair to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back A.Putnam to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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