15.40 Newmarket: 1000 Guineas
The Favourite
After an exciting first classic yesterday, it’s now time for the girls to take centre stage as it’s the 1000 Guineas today. Again, it’s run over a mile and Aiden O’Brien, who has saddled 5 of the last 6 winners, has another incredibly strong hand. He has the favourite in Tenebrism who is 2 from 2 after landing the Cheveley Park on her last start, quickening up in smart fashion. However, she’s never been behind 6 furlongs & breeding suggests this could be right on her limit. With a strong pace assured, she’s not one to be taking short odds over.
Contenders
Tuesday is the apparent second string & she’s been well backed this week. The mount of Frankie Dettori has raced just twice, narrowly going down on debut before comfortably landing a 17-runner maiden at Naas 5 weeks ago. She needs to find improvement but that’s possible. The French have a strong hand too with Malavath & Zellie renewing rivalry after the former came out on top in a Group 3 at Deauville just over 3 weeks ago. I think both might prefer the going to be on the soft side & word from the stable of the latter doesn’t inspire confidence. Juncture is progressing but hasn’t yet set the world on fire & was beaten on her only run in Group company whilst Amenyah and Wild Beauty are arguably the pick of the home contingent but neither convince.
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Betting
Having drifted over the last couple of days, Discoveries now looks a big each way price in my eyes. Breeding alone would have her favourite as she’s a sister to the top class Alpha Centauri & a half sister to Alpine Star but unlike those 2, she’s won in the highest company as a 2 year old. She started off in a couple of maidens, finishing behind Juncture first time up & then edging out Tuesday next time. Stepping up in a Group 2, she was only 3rd behind Agartha before reversing that form in the Group 1 Moyglare on her most recent start where she looked very good indeed. She was very strong at the line & this extra furlong looks to be right up her street. The ground will suit and unlike a couple of her rivals, I think the trip will play right into her hands. She’ll love the fast pace too, with the only slight doubt being that this is her first run of the campaign. That said, the last 3 winners have come without a prep so here’s hoping she can extend that to 4. At her current price, she cannot go unbacked.
Tips
Back Discoveries (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.50 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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