15.40 Newmarket: 2000 Guineas
The Favourite
It’s time for the first classic of the season, run over the straight mile at Newmarket & this year’s renewal looks an absolute cracker. A field of 15 go to post & Charlie Appleby, bidding for his first success in the race, looks to have all angles covered as he saddles the front 2 in the market in Native Trail & Coroebus. They are both drawn on the wing, housed in 15 & 1 respectively. Native Trail is a worthy favourite having won all 5 of his career starts including 2 Group 1s in the National Stakes & the Dewhurst. Race fitness won’t be an issue given he’s already been seen this term, comfortably coming home over 3 lengths clear in the Craven. It’s hard to find an obvious chink in his armour other than he has a tendency to hit a flat spot in his races & his wide draw.
Contenders
Coroebus is 2 from 3, all over this trip of a mile. He won on debut before being edged out by one of today’s rivals, Royal Patronage, in the Royal Lodge but redeemed himself by sauntering to victory in the Autumn Stakes. He’s well fancied by many but just isn’t my idea of the winner. Luxembourg is the first string for Aiden O’Brien having won all 3 starts including the Futurity. He was impressive in landing his Group 1 but the ground was very different to today’s and at 5/1 looks a bit short in the market. Perfect Power won the Greenham but isn’t certain to stay & can often spoil his chances going to post whilst Dubawi Legend is joint second highest rated but is held by a couple of today’s rivals & has a Breeders Cup disappointment to overcome. At a massive price, I could see Berkshire Shadow staying on to grab a place but there are 2 that I believe have solid chances of turning over the market leaders.
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Betting
The first of those is O’Brien’s apparent second string in the shape of Point Lonsdale. He won his first 4 stepping up each time to win a maiden & then Listed, Group 3 & Group 2 events. He was then sent off at 8/13 favourite in the National Stakes where he was beaten fair & square by Native Trail but I just have a sneaky feeling he could reverse the form today. The demands of Newmarket plus the extra furlong should suit him as he appears to me to be a relentless galloper rather than one that quickens. I think some of the speed horses could flatter to deceive & it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dettori try to ride a finish out of his rivals. With 4 places on offer, I think he’s a cracking each way bet as I’m not sure 2 of the front 3 in the market are as good as the market is suggesting.
The other I like is the impressive Feilden winner Eydon. Admittedly, he doesn’t have the ideal profile of a Guineas winner having only placed in his first 2 starts, both in novice events on the all weather over the winter but the way he won in Listed company last time makes him hard to ignore. Clearly, he has race fitness on his side & stamina is another positive as that win was here over 9 furlongs. Whilst he stayed on really well, he also quickened off a slow pace coming from the back to win by over 3 lengths. The horse he beat was Masekela & he’s a solid yardstick given last year he finished not far behind Native Trail & Coroebus, amongst others. On strict form lines, he comes here with a solid chance & his draw in 10 is a good one as he is right in amongst the pace & should get a good tow into the race.
Tips
Back Point Lonsdale (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back Eydon (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 34.00 Betfred BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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