The Breeders Cup, arguably the biggest of all race meetings & Day One is upon us with 4 races including a couple of 2 year old events. Dortmund, who has 3 times finished behind California Chrome, and Songbird, unbeaten in 11 starts, are the star attractions. I recommend leaving both those races alone tonight (Dirt Mile and the Distaff) and instead concentrate on the 2 juvenile events.
9.25 Santa Anita: Juvenile Turf
7 of the last 9 winners have come from this side of the Atlantic and that’s a pretty strong stat that you shouldn’t be opposing. There are reasons for that, not least the fact that most of our racing is on turf so the surface suits better than the dirt races.
Intelligence Cross is the horse that has the powerful O’Brien/Moore combo and his chances are solid, especially with this combo responsible for 3 of the last 5 winners. He has some good form to his form but my worry is the trip, stepping up to a mile after having raced exclusively at 6 furlongs so far.
Despite a wide draw in 12, my fancy is the Simon Crisford trained Rodaini. Dettori takes the ride and this is a progressive horse that won his first 4 starts at trips up to 7 furlongs. Last time, he was stepped up to a mile in a Group 3 but stumbled and was denied a clear run so I’m happy to forgive that. This is a race normally set up for the closers, like our selection, so the wide draw might not be the disadvantage it seems.
The American contigent is led by Good Samaritan who should go well and Oscar Performance whose front running style isn’t ideal from a very wide berth.
Back Rodaini (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Bet 365 (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
10.50 Santa Anita: Juvenile Fillies Turf
The girls now have centre stage and O’Brien has 3. All are fancied in the betting but none of them appeal to me in a heat where the US charge look solid. Spain Burg is the favourite but is having her first run in the US. Admittedly she won the Rockfel but otherwise, her 4 from 5 record isn’t anything to get excited about.
Instead, I’ll focus on the key trial for this, the Miss Grillo, where the first 3 all re-oppose. New Money Honey won that by almost 3 lengths and represents a trainer that has taken that route in winning this before. She has a good draw in 3 but the faster ground raises some question marks. That said, I want her onside.
Her trainer, Chad C Brown, is also responsible for the 2nd horse home, Rymska, but she has a wide draw tonight. Instead, I like the chances of the 3rd, Coasted, who was actually 6/4 for the event but didn’t appreciate the ground. She’d previously won twice on ground like this so her price is crazy. Additionally, she gave 6lbs to the front 2 but races off level weights tonight.
WON – Back New Money Honey (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3)
PLACED – Back Coasted (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3)
Back them here:
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