Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season continues on Sunday with 8 games in the early time slot and 3 in the later one.
I will look at a couple of those games – suggesting some team and player bets. I will also suggest an Accumulator on a number of games.
Early Games – kickoff 1pm Eastern 6pm UK
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Team Markets
The NFL’s number one rushing attack (Dallas) meets the NFL’s number one rushing defence (Baltimore) in a clash of division leaders.
The Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFL with 8 straight wins giving them the best overall record at 8-1. The offence in particular has been impressive. The focus is the OL and running game but the passing game, led by rookie QB Dak Prescott has been efficient. On offence the Cowboys have just not made many errors. The OL has been impressive, opening massive holes for RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Alfred Morris, whilst also protecting their QB. THis has enabled the Cowboys to control the clock and keep their defence fresh. If they win the battle with the Ravens DL then this will be a long game for Baltimore.
The Ravens offence has been woefully inconsistent as has the play of QB Joe Flacco. WR Steve Smith has been impressive as ever but other players have been up and down. The red zone offence has been poor and they don’t score enough points for me (20 per game) to be competitive here. They need to be sharp and involve players like WR Breshad Perriman more to have a chance of winning.
The Ravens defence is strong in the front 7. There has been improvement in the overall performance with the return of OLB Terrell Suggs – their sack leader. I’m not sure they can contain the Cowboys running game. All 5 OL players have excellent run blocking grades this season. They pound and pound all day long. This means Elliott becomes even more dangerous in the 4th quarter as the defences get tired.
Dallas are big favourites here and a line has been set at -7 for the Cowboys. I think this is a decent line for me to take the Cowboys.
Player Markets
I like two players lines in this game. Cowboys TE Jason Witten has done well for me this season. His line here has been set at 38.5 yards. This is the lowest I’ve seen all season for the Cowboys leading receiver. Yes, the Ravens are good vs TE’s but 3 catches will get Witten to that line. I love this.
Baltimore have been trying to get WR Breshad Perriman more involved in their offence in recent games. He is a big target with speed and has big play potential. His line here is a mere 25.5 yards. If he catches 2 passes in the game he will exceed this target.
Late game – Kickoff 4.25pm Eastern 9.25pm UK
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Team Markets
The Seahawks are fresh over an upset win over the New England Patriots in week 10. The defence is playing at the elite level we have come to expect and the offence is starting to click. QB Russell Wilson, playing through an ankle injury, is getting better by the week. He linked up with WR Doug Baldwin for 3 touchdowns in the New England game and finally has a rapport with TE Jimmy Graham. They are tough to beat at home and host a rookie QB in week 11.
The Eagles are struggling in spite of a win in week 10. They have a 5-4 record (last in their division) and the battle to reach the playoffs looks difficult. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has looked sensational at times but has levelled off in the last 4 or 5 games. Here he faces the Legion of Boom and a fearsome pass-rush led by DE Cliff Averil and Frank Clark.
The Eagles have had a productive running game with Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. The Seahawks though are tough to run on. They will aim to force Wentz to beat them knowing his WR’s are only an average group.
The bookmakers have Seattle as favourites with a line of -6.5 for the Seahawks to win. I think the Seahawks will win this one comfortably. Seattle will be boosted with the return of RB Thomas Rawls to pair with the emerging presence of rookie RB C. J. Prosise (150+ combined yards in week 10).
Player Markets
Again I like two player lines in this game.
Seahawks TE Jimmy Graham is a matchup nightmare with his size and speed. His line here of 61.5 yards looks easily achievable to me – he has 3 100 yard games this season already and is a good matchup with the Eagles LBers.
The Eagles TE Zach Ertz has a line of 44.5 yards in this game. He has exceeded this line 3 times in the 7 games he has played. For this game he is questionable with an injury and comes up against the sensational safety pair of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in this game. Bet on the unders!
Accumulator
There are a huge number of games this week that look like huge mismatches. Each of the teams I’m picking are short-priced favourites for obvious reasons – they are much better than their opponents. I’m going to suggest a small accumulator on the following games:
- Chicago Bears at New York Giants – Giants to win
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns – Steelers to win
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs – Chiefs to win
- New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers – Patriots to win
I was tempted to back Tennesse Titans too in their game with the Indianapolis Colts. I can’t see the Colts stopping the Titans running game but there is a chance Andrew Luck goes crazy for the Colts. So I will stick with these 4.
I placed my Accumulator with Skybet at odds of 2.41 (see below for link). You might be able to improve on this slightly elsewhere.
NFL Week 11 – Tips
Team Markets
WON – Back the Dallas Cowboys (-7.0) to beat Baltimore Ravens with a 3.5/10 stake at 1.90 with 188Bet.
Bet here:
WON – Back the Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) to beat Philadelphia Eagles with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.92 with 888Sport.
Bet here:
Player Markets
Back Jason Witten to go over 38.5 receiving yards with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Brashad Perriman to go over 25.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back Jimmy Graham to go over 61.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
WON – Bet on Zach Ertz to go under 44.5 receiving yards for a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
Accumulator
Back the Giants, Chiefs, Steelers and Patriots all to win their games with a 2.0/10 stake at 2.41 with Skybet.
Bet here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2016
