Ahead of the IPL beginning on Saturday afternoon there is enough time to have a look at the two main player outright markets and we will begin with the top batsman one which is always popular to bet on with the quality of batsmen on show in this tournament.
There are a couple of high profile absentees in terms of the batsmen who could be here with the winner of the orange cap last year, Dave Warner, and the man who was fourth in Steve Smith both unavailable for this season but the cast list is strong nevertheless.
Recent Winners
2017 – David Warner
2016 – Virat Kohli
2015 – David Warner
2014 – Robin Uthappa
2013 – Michael Hussey
2012 – Chris Gayle
2011 – Chris Gayle
2010 – Sachin Tendulkar
2009 – Matthew Hayden
2008 – Shaun Marsh
Overview
There are a couple of things which leap out at us when we look at the winners of the orange cap in the past. The first thing is that they are all superstars of the game who went on to have amazing careers, maybe with the exception of Robin Uthappa who just happened to have the year of his life. Seven of the ten winners have come from overseas which is interesting and they have all batted in the top three.
Market Leaders
It goes without saying that Virat Kohli is the favourite to lead the run scoring this season. He is a 7/1 shot which is fairly short when you think about it but he is a class act. He was a non-runner in this contest before it started last year as he missed out through injury but there are no such issues this time and you feel that he is the man to beat and will take all the beating.
Shikhar Dhawan is an 11/1 second favourite this season. Having backed him at more than double the price in this market last year I’m reluctant to get involved again especially as he is going to need to get used to a new opening partner and will have extra pressure on him in the absence of Warner.
Mumbai Indians captain Rohit Sharma is next in the betting at 14/1. Aside from the fact he is captain of his side there is a lot to like about Sharma although I would be much stronger on his chances were he to open the batting. That doesn’t look likely though and that always puts me off backing players in this market.
Evin Lewis, AB de Villiers and Suresh Raina are all locked at 16/1 in the betting market. Lewis should go very well on that Wankhede wicket while AB de Villiers is a runner at all times if he stays fit. That would be a concern. The Chennai wicket is incredibly slow these days which could hurt the chances of Raina somewhat.
Chris Lynn is the only other man shorter than 20/1 in the betting. He carries a formidable reputation around with him but he also carries a dodgy shoulder that can go at any time and that is very much a concern. If he plays the entire season he could be a real danger but you’ve got to think at some point he will be forced to miss out which is less than ideal.
Profile
I think just by looking at the roll of honour that we are looking for someone who bats high up the order. Opening the batting might be the best players to target but those who bat at three wouldn’t be a bad second place. I wouldn’t want to back a player much lower than four in any line up. It is also worth focusing on those who play their home matches either at small grounds or where the wicket is traditionally good for batting.
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Betting
I’m going to go with two in this market. Both men are overseas players but they both open the batting and should be able to get an advantage on most of the field which could be important over the course of the campaign.
Aaron Finch has moved to the Kings XI Punjab and while the team might struggle I fancy the Australian will have a good season. One of the reasons for that is the Punjab outfit play as many as four of their home matches at Indore where the ground is tiny and the wicket is usually good for batting. In fairness there is nothing wrong with the track in Chandigarh either so he should fill his boots in home matches. Chris Gayle is on the books of the Kings XI but they spent a lot more money on Finch so I’m expecting him to get the starting gig and at 25/1 the Aussie opener looks a tasty price.
Brendon McCullum has moved to Bangalore, the scene of his incredible IPL debut night innings way back when and if he can get used to the pace of the wicket then that ground at the Chinnaswamy is certainly not going to be big enough to contain him and his power. We saw in the Big Bash over Christmas that he retains all of his quality and if he can start the season well there’s no reason why he can’t pile up the runs.
Tips
Back A.Finch Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back B.McCullum Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
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