The Big Bash League leaders can all but secure a home semi-final on Tuesday when the Hobart Hurricanes take on the Brisbane Heat in the first of the two matches in the competition on a pivotal Tuesday.
Hobart sit comfortably at the top of the table and are probably only a win away from guaranteeing they host a match in the finals. Brisbane Heat are trying to get to the semi-finals but their destiny might be out of their own hands already.
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Hobart Hurricanes
If there was any danger of the Hobart Hurricanes getting complacent over the remainder of the regular season, it probably disappeared during their previous match when they were comprehensively taken to the cleaners by the Sydney Sixers. Although they put up a decent total, they were never really in the hunt when it came to defending it and that will have disappointed them.
I don’t think there is any need for the Hurricanes to panic just yet but the wake up call was probably no bad thing. Their bowlers will know that they can’t take their foot off the gas in this competition if they are going to maintain the intensity needed to carry their good form into the finals. I would expect to see a much better performance from that unit here.
Brisbane Heat
It was already against the cards for the Brisbane Heat in terms of making the semi-finals, when they went to Melbourne to face the Melbourne Stars on Sunday and their failure to chase down a below par score has probably secured their fate. They can only get 15pts from their season now and that is only if they win their final four matches. With four sides already on 12pts you would think a minimum of 16pts will be needed to progress.
That might act to make Brisbane Heat dangerous over the remainder of the tournament. They have some huge hitting batsmen in their ranks and if any of them come off they could put up a score that has their opponents under pressure. The downside though is that their bowlers have never really convinced at any stage in the tournament.
Team News
The Hobart Hurricanes have finally been forced into a change in their squad with the sudden retirement of Johan Botha last week. He has been replaced by Jarrod Freeman although it is expected that Caleb Jewell will come into the side.
Despite their loss to the Melbourne Stars last time out, the Brisbane Heat have kept with the same squad that featured in that match which means there is no place for Sam Heazlett once again.
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Betting
I like the sixes here. These are probably the two biggest hitting sides in the competition and this is not the biggest ground we see action on in this tournament. There have been three matches at Blundstone Arena this season and they have yielded sixes totals of 10, 17 and 11 which I would come to expect.
Given that the Brisbane Heat have nothing to lose now and can let their shoulders go and club some sixes I’m expecting the 10.5 line for this match to be covered relatively comfortably. We have D’Arcy Short, Matthew Wade, Ben McDermott, George Bailey, Chris Lynn, Max Bryant, Brendon McCullum and others going for us. There were 16 sixes when these two sides met in the reverse meeting and that’s around the number I’m expecting here.
Tips
Back Over 10.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with 888sport
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