The Nordea Masters has had a bit of a facelift and has become the Scandinavian Invitational and it is the European Tour offering this week, as the star names begin to head to this part of the world with the PGA Tour campaign beginning to wind down.
Paul Waring won what was the last Nordea Masters and he effectively defends his title this week and will have to play well to see off a much better field than the one he got the better of 12 months ago.
Recent Winners
2018 – Paul Waring
2017 – Renato Paratore
2016 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2015 – Alex Noren
2014 – Thongchai Jaidee
2013 – Mikko Ilonen
2012 – Lee Westwood
2011 – Alex Noren
2010 – Richard S Johnson
2009 – Ricardo Gonzalez
The Course
The tournament name might have changed but the course it is being held on hasn’t as we are back at the Hills Golf Club in Gothenburg. This is one of the smallest courses on the European Tour as a par 70 which measures just 6,931 yards. They have had a dry spell in this part of the world so we’re going to get a firm and fast course where the rough is pretty bare, which should in theory mean the bigger hitters hold sway.
However we had similar conditions here last year and it was the fairway and green finders who prospered the most so that is the angle I’ll be taking this year. This is an undulating track so it stands to reason that ball strikers go well on it. The wind is always a factor in this part of the world so those with high ball flights might be best saved for Crans-sur-Sierre next week.
The Field
This is an invitational tournament and three big guns from Europe have accepted the invite, those being Henrik Stenson, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Alex Noren and they will join the defending champion Paul Waring in the field this week. A couple of other seasoned PGA Tour campaigners also tee it up in the form of David Lingmerth and Andres Romero.
Some leading European specialists are also in the field with Andrea Pavan, Thomas Detry, Andy Sullivan and Robert MacIntyre all teeing it up. They are joined by men who will be eyeing up at least one win between now and the end of the season in the likes of Joost Luiten, Jordan Smith, Tom Lewis and Victor Dubuisson. They all make this a competitive event.
Market Leaders
Two men are at single figures this week with the first of those being the tournament favourite in Henrik Stenson. He is an 8/1 shot to win his home tournament and when you think that he withdrew from a chance of the FedEx Cup riches and is teeing it up here you could be forgiven for thinking that is a tip in itself. The simple truth is he was so far down the rankings across the pond because he isn’t playing well at the present time and that alone is enough to make me swerve him at such a short price.
Matt Fitzpatrick is a former winner of this tournament and he almost won in Germany not so long ago so he arrives here in decent form. I suspect he is the better option of the two who are single figure prices but I would rather back him at this price next week where we know he has an exceptional record than here where there is next to no value in him given that there are a number of options to beat him.
Alex Noren is the third favourite to win the tournament at 12/1 and the end of the PGA Tour season could well have come at a perfect time for the Swede. The drop in level and many tournaments approaching that he has a fine record in could well restore his confidence and he is very much one to follow over the next few weeks. I just need to see he is back hitting the ball like he can before I get involved in him so he isn’t for me this week.
Erik van Rooyen comes next in the betting at 16/1. All the consensus is that it is only a matter of time before he wins a tournament. That might be right but he’s fluffed so many good positions now that I can’t get involved in him until he gets over the line. If he only places here, and in this company that is no guarantee, we’re barely making much so the stress and the strain isn’t really worth it. It is 20/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
Only the price has kept Andrea Pavan out of the staking plan but I will go with two main bets this week. I’ve been convinced for a while that Thomas Detry will go in on the European Tour soon and he is one of a bunch of players I’ve got my eye on in what I’m calling the European Tour swing for the next three months. Detry has had a decent break but that’s no bad thing. He has two top 10s on Tour this year including at Valderrama and three more top 15s including on home soil and in the British Masters, the latter highlighting his credentials in the wind. His World Cup teammate won last week and I’m expecting the Belgian to be inspired by that. Detry sits at 16 on the strokes gained on approach and 23 in strokes gained putting. They’ll be big things this week so the Belgian should be a leading runner at 33/1.
Joost Luiten is the other man I like as a main bet this week. This course should be right up his street and I’m expecting big things from the Dutchman over the course of the next few months. Luiten is second on Tour in strokes gained from tee to green and he’s ninth on strokes gained approach so he is likely to give himself a lot of chances here. He only needs the flat stick to warm up and he is going to go very well. He has six top 20 finishes in just 13 starts this year so he’s in decent form and he should be more than competitive here, especially if that flat stick does play ball.
Outsiders
Alexander Bjork caught my eye in the Czech Republic last week with his putting and his driving of particular quality but although he hasn’t been so far this season, he is generally a good iron player. He has a decent record in Asia where you have to flush irons so he might just be having a quiet time of things in that department this year but if he can get a few approach shots off the middle of the club early in the tournament this could easily be his week because everything else was firing nicely last week. At 70/1 I’ll pay to see how low he goes with the iron play.
Lee Slattery has caught my eye over the last couple of months. He has opened his last three tournaments with rounds of 65, 64 and 65 and although he hasn’t gone on and won any of those tournaments we should acknowledge that the first two of those were in Ireland and Scotland which were Rolex Series events with serious runners. Nobody was beating Rahm in Ireland and to be fair Bernd Wiesberger wasn’t getting beaten in Scotland either. Last week was more of a concern with how he fell away but eventually he is going to build on these good starts and here could well be that week against a lesser field. Those starting rounds show us he is hitting the ball well. At 70/1 I’ll pay to see if he has four rounds in him.
JB Hansen was another one who came on my radar last week. He was seventh in finding fairways last week and fifth in putts per GIR and fourth in putts per round. The issue was that he didn’t hit the number of greens that he needed to but on this shorter course he is going to be hitting a heck of a lot of lower irons into the greens so in theory his accuracy into the dancefloors should improve dramatically. If he does then his 125/1 quotes are going to look huge because we saw last week that on a more demanding track lengthwise, the rest of his game is in excellent order.
Tips
Back T.Detry to win Scandinavian Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back L.Slattery to win Scandinavian Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back J.Luiten to win Scandinavian Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Bjork to win Scandinavian Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back JB.Hansen to win Scandinavian Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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