The worst fears of England were realised last week when they surrendered the urn to Australia for the foreseeable future but they will be all out to level The Ashes series when the two sides meet for the final time at The Oval this week.
Australia know that whatever happened they have kept hold of the urn, which was their number one priority, but if they avoid defeat here they will be the first team in 18 years to leave England with a series win to their name. England have to win to avoid that happening.
England
If they are being honest with themselves, England will know they have been outplayed in all departments in this series and not winning it is the least they deserved. They have been thrashed twice and had it not been for the heroics of Ben Stokes that would have been three times. The interesting thing to note here will be whether they can get themselves motivated for one last effort to attempt to draw the series.
I don’t think England bowlers can take any grief in this series although I’m sure they would love to keep Steve Smith quiet just once before the Australians head home. The batsmen have been the problem for England with their top order continuing to fail. That has been highlighted even more in this series because their strength in the middle and lower order hasn’t really fired like it can. They need to good batting performance here.
Australia
It is job done for Australia now but the really good teams ram home their dominance when they have their foot on the opponent’s throat and that is exactly what they will be aiming to do here. In saying that, it has been a long tour for the Australians so they will have to ensure they are at it in this match and now looking at the plane home. If they perform like they have been you would think they would be too good for England again.
The Australian attack has had the English batting on toast in this series but anyone who thinks it has been a perfect series for the tourists will be kidding themselves. They haven’t batted particularly well either and had it not been for the brilliance of Smith, this series might have gone the other way. Moving forward it would do them good for certain players to find some form and belief to take away from England with them.
Team News
England have confirmed that they will be making two changes for this match with Chris Woakes and Sam Curran coming in for Jason Roy and Craig Overton with Ben Stokes playing just as a specialist batsman due to a shoulder injury.
Australia have selected Mitchell Marsh in place of Travis Head and they could also rotate their bowlers once again. Pat Cummins has played every match in this series so could be due a rest. Peter Siddle and James Pattinson will be looking to come in.
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The Oval
There have been 101 past Test matches on this ground with England having featured in all of them. It is a good venue for them too in terms of their previous record with 42 wins to just 22 defeats and 37 draws too. It is not so good a venue for Australia though. They have played here on 37 occasions and only have seven wins to show for their efforts. They have lost 16 of them and drawn the other 14.
It is usually a decent batting wicket at The Oval, at least for the first three days but then the longer the match goes on the more spin will come into play. The weather is set to be hot and dry over the five days which is likely to bring spin into play even more at the end of what has been a packed summer of cricket.
Betting
I’ll take three bets for this match with the first of them being on an Australia side who I took last week and who I’m happy to be on again. England look like a side who’ve had a long summer and who’ve been flogged to the last embers. Australia don’t look amazing but they’ve absolutely dominated this series and it is easier to play well when you’ve won than when you can’t win which is the case England are in. But for Ben Stokes at Headingley, England would not have won a match. I don’t think they win here either. Australia for me.
Nathan Lyon didn’t have the best match in the last game at Old Trafford because of a cut on his spinning finger but that has had enough time to get better and I expect him to end with a flourish on a pitch which should suit spin perfectly. England have selected Sam Curran for this match so there are going to be even more foot holes for him to use to the right-handers while he has natural variation to the lefties. I’m a little surprised his line is 105.5 here. This pitch will definitely spin and it isn’t just with the ball Lyon can score. He walloped 26 at Old Trafford and anything like that here reduces it to four wickets. Whether by wickets or runs I expect this to be covered.
Sam Curran is new to the Australians and I wonder if that will translate into a top scoring first innings for England on his home ground. We’ve seen throughout his Test match career that he can bat and I don’t think the Aussies will get the pace and bounce out of this wicket that they might need to trouble him. Curran has been in decent touch at times this summer and with motivation to go well and ensure he’s in the team for the New Zealand trip I’ll pay to see how close he goes at 20/1.
Tips
Back Australia to beat England for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with William Hill
Back them here:
WON – Back N.Lyon’s Performance – Over 105.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back S.Curran Top England 1st Inns Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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