England guaranteed themselves a share of their Test series in South Africa when they won the third game in Port Elizabeth last week to lead 2-1, and they will hope to scoop the full honours when the two teams start the final Test in Johannesburg on Friday.
South Africa head to The Wanderers knowing they have to win in order to level the series. This is a great place for cricket and we have a match worthy of the occasion to go alongside it as these two sides battle for the last time.
South Africa
The South Africans won’t need to look too far to see where they need to improve if they are going to level the series here. They simply have to find a way to score more runs because for the last two Test matches they haven’t threatened to build the scores that will put pressure on England. It isn’t always easy when you are batting second, we should recognise that, but even so I’m sure South Africa will be disappointed with their batting efforts.
Those runs will be even more important here because they are without the man recognised to be their best bowler and on this pitch in particular his absence is going to be felt. You would still expect South Africa to have enough seamers to get stuck into England here but that will all be relatively pointless if their batsmen can’t put up the number of runs required in this match. They could add a batsman as a result.
England
It has been almost the perfect two matches for England to get their noses in front in the series. They have won the toss on both occasions, capitalised on it straight away with good first innings totals, and then bowled well and utilised the conditions they have been faced with to come away with a couple of wins. You would have to point out that they have been helped along the way by their opponents but they’ll take it.
There are just one or two signs that this transitional England side are beginning to deliver the goods in this format. Their problem for ages has been their batting but while they haven’t been spectacular up top, their openers are starting to negate the new ball and the rest of their batsmen are doing their jobs as a result. There has never been anything wrong with England’s bowling options so if the batting can continue to deliver it all bodes well for them.
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Team News
South Africa will be forced into one change with Kagiso Rabada suspended for this match. Beuran Hendricks is expected to get a Test debut in his place while Temba Bavuma is likely to be recalled. Andile Phehlukwayo could come in too.
England are toying with the idea of bringing Jofra Archer back on a pitch which should really suit him. Dom Bess would be the obvious man to make way unless Mark Wood doesn’t make it for whatever reason.
The Wanderers
There have been 40 previous Test matches on this famous ground and South Africa have a winning record in them with 17 wins to just 12 defeats and the 11 draws alongside that. England have played here on nine prior occasions and have a perfect symmetry to their record with three wins, three draws and three defeats so they might have mixed feelings about playing on this ground.
This is always a good Test wicket because the bowlers are always in the game with the pace and bounce generated at altitude here. Runs need to be scored in the first innings as a result of that because the balance can tilt in the edge of the bowlers the longer the game goes on. Sadly rain is around on the first three days of the match which could be an issue.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets for this final Test match which both focus on the South Africans. The first one comes in the form of the performance of Amrich Nortje, which looks a little on the low side to be at 82.5 points. In each of the first two Tests in the series he took five wickets and we should focus on that rather than Port Elizabeth because that pitch was turning on day one and this one certainly won’t be doing that. He also has an innings of 40 with the bat too so there has to be every chance he covers this, especially on a pitch which he should attract such pace and bounce on.
There is no guarantee that Keshav Maharaj plays in this match but if he does then the 66/1 on him to top score in the first innings for South Africa is just too big. He has just clobbered 71 in a top scoring effort in the second dig in Port Elizabeth and this is a ground where early wickets can fall in bunches leaving the path clear for someone down the order to come along and top score. That innings of Maharaj in Port Elizabeth was no fluke. He’s a decent enough lower order batsman and is a crazy price to top score.
Tips
WON – Back A.Nortje’s Performance – Over 82.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
VOID – Back K.Maharaj Top South Africa 1st Innings Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
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