4.55 Epsom
Preview
Just over an hour after the first Classic of the day comes the 2nd & arguably the biggest race of the flat calendar, the Investec Derby for 3 year old colts. This has attracted a much bigger field than the fillies version, with 16 heading to the start. You’d think the draw isn’t important over this trip but you couldn’t be more wrong; 9 of the last 10 runnings of this have seen double figure field sizes and every one of those 9 winners were drawn in stall 7 or higher. What’s even more interesting is that 26 of the 27 placed horses in that time have been drawn in stall 5 or higher.
Favourites
That makes English King, the current favourite for Ed Walker & Frankie Dettori, easy to oppose. He won the Lingfield Derby Trial, the same race Anthony Van Dyck won en route to success here 12 months ago but he has the coffin box in stall 1 & it’ll be some feat to win from there. On draw grounds, I’d also want to oppose O’Brien’s first string Mogul as he’s coming out of stall 2. He was also only 4th in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot behind Pyledriver who has also lost out, given the 3 stall.
Contenders
Kameko is the winner of the 2000 Guineas and English King’s nearest challenger in the market. If he stays, there’s every chance he’ll be too classy for his rivals but 5/1 in a Derby is plenty short enough, especially when there are some small stamina doubts. I was surprised Russian Emperor wasn’t the choice of Ryan Moore but instead Seamie Heffernan takes the ride. He won the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot, staying on well but his price & the decision of Moore to ride Mogul make him another to ignore.
I like Vatican City but he is one with big stamina doubts whilst Highland Chief is a very good handicapper who will surely need a deluge to be seriously involved. Instead, I’m taking 2 at big prices.
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Betting
The first of those is Mohican Heights with David Simcock’s runner having landed a good high draw in 15. He finished 3rd behind Pyledriver in the King Edward but was held up last & was poorly positioned coming into the straight. He stayed on in taking style & hopefully he’ll be ridden more prominently today from what looks like a good draw.
He has won his previous 2 races including a Listed race at Salisbury & there’s only one horse in the field (coincidentally, it’s Pyledriver) who recorded a better RPR on debut. As one of the more unexposed types in the field (just the 3 runs to date), he probably has as much improvement as any in him & I expect a big run.
At an even bigger price, I’m hoping Tom Marquand can gain compensation for losing the ride on English King by getting a good spin aboard Khalifa Sat who has been drawn in 14. He won a maiden at Goodwood as a 2 year old & then backed that up by winning the Group 3 Cocked Hat at the same track on reappearance. That day, he made all & battled on well to hold off the sustained challenge of one of today’s rivals Emissary who is around half the price today but has a poor draw in stall 4.
Epsom is a unique track & requires a horse to act on the track. Goodwood has some similar traits so the fact the selection has won twice there & didn’t show any quirks bodes well. I don’t expect him to be good enough to win but am taking him in the market without the front 2 in the market.
Tips
Back Mohican Heights (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 William Hill BOG (1/5 odds 1-4)
Back it here:
Back Mohican Heights (e/w) in the ‘without English King & Kameko’ market for a 0.75/10 stake at 11.00 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1-3)
PLACED – Back Khalifa Sat (e/w) in the ‘without English King & Kameko’ market for a 0.5/10 stake at 23.00 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1-3)
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