The European Tour heads to Cyprus for the first time this week. Ordinarily we would be gearing up for the Final Series but in these testing times the Tour is doing everything it can just to keep the action moving so setting up a bubble in Cyprus is the latest plan of action.
The Cyprus Open is the tournament in question, the first of two events in this part of the world before we get back to something approaching the normal schedule after The Masters when the South Africa swing takes place.
The Course
We are at the PGA National Cyprus Course in the Aphrodite Hills Resort in Paphos. There isn’t a whole lot that we know about the track other than it is a par 71 which is on the short side at 6,956 yards. We know from previous tournaments since the restart that the event will take place on a course that is designed for the public to play when on holiday so when you throw that in with the short length of it, it would be a huge surprise if this is not another low scoring shootout.
The track is said to be pretty exposed which I guess would be normal on a resort course so we’re probably looking at events such as Qatar, Portugal, Mauritius and Scotland for something of a form guide. It should be noted that the wind isn’t expected to blow too much this week so that is another reason why we should be expecting the scoring to be very low on a course that is likely to be there for the taking.
The Field
The players deserve a lot of credit this week as they have recognised what the tour are trying to do for everyone and a good level of players have shown their support by teeing it up this week. English Championship winner Andy Sullivan is probably the star name in the field but there is also a place for two time UK Swing tournament winner Sam Horsfield, Joost Luiten, Thomas Detry, Sami Valimaki, Jorge Campillo and Matthias Schwab are some of the other leading lights on show this week.
There is also a spot in the field for the man who was beaten into second last week in Laurie Canter as well as the powerhouses of Gavin Green and Wilco Nienaber. Robert MacIntyre, Jordan Smith, Matthew Jordan, Joakim Lagergren, Haotong Li, Nicolas Colsaerts and Matthew Southgate are just some of the other names teeing it up in what should be a competitive week of golf before the quirky event here next week.
Market Leaders
Andy Sullivan is the market leader this week at 14/1 which is probably a fair price when you take his excellent record in Portugal into account as well as the fact that he won one of these low scoring holiday hotel venue shootouts during the UK Swing. He is the aggressive sort of player who will go well in these things but he hasn’t been that prominent on the leaderboards since he won at Hanbury Manor, with the exception of a couple of hours at the BMW PGA Championship. He’s respected and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins but he’s too short for me.
There is a three way tie for second favourite in the betting at 25/1 as Joost Luiten, Matthias Schwab and Thomas Detry can all be backed on that total. I’ll come onto Schwab in a short while but I can’t be having Luiten. I much prefer him on tougher tracks where his exceptional long game is in good order. Anyone who saw his chip at the final hole last week will know why I’m reluctant to take him in low scoring shootouts like this. Detry actually tempts me this week when normally I’ve no interest in him but he needs to convince me he can win first. I’m not convinced he has it in him yet.
Marcus Kinhult is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 30/1 to win this tournament. He can be backed at 28/1 and having won the British Masters on an exposed course and contended in Scotland at the beginning of this month he ticks the obvious boxes but if the wind isn’t going to blow this week that advantage might be negated somewhat. He is another that I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s right there but he isn’t quite for me this week.
Main Bets
I took Matthias Schwab last week but after a horrible first round he flew home strongly but it was miles too late by then. He came home on the strength of his long game where he ranked the best in the field on that looks to be a similar long game test to the one he faces here so I’m not going to give up on the Austrian straight away. The reason why he started badly and didn’t get right into contention was a stone cold putter and while that is certainly a concern heading into this week I’m hoping potentially firmer greens will bring out the sort of display with the short stick that he has been showing recently. If it does then he should be right there throughout the four days.
The other player I like is Sam Horsfield. I won on him in the Hero Open during the UK Swing on a course not too dissimilar to this one and although he has gone cold form wise since his two wins in that Swing after a positive Covid-19 test and having to miss the US Open, I still think he is more than good enough to contend on layouts like this one. There is no sort of huge profile to this tournament so the marquee groups that he has been playing in don’t carry the same pressure and scrutiny here so I expect to see a much stronger showing from the Hero Open and UK Championship winner.
Outsiders
Jorge Campillo has finished 2-1 in the last two renewals of the Qatar Masters and he was in the top 10 in Portugal recently so he seems to play these resort tracks quite well and at a huge 60/1 he is probably worth having onside. He had a couple of top 10s in the UK Swing and carded nine under when only a bad final round denied him the chance to move into the top 10 there so his form hasn’t disappeared since he won in Qatar earlier in the season. We are coming into a stage in the year when the Spaniard has some big opportunities and he can go into them with a very strong showing here.
Alexander Bjork is another player who has had plenty of form on exposed tracks over the last few years and also by winning in China we know he can score low when the need arises as well which is going to be important this week. Bjork is generally a decent iron player and putter and those are the tools that will be needed this week. He went well behind Horsfield at the Hero Open earlier in the season and his latest top 20 came in Scotland two starts ago when he opened with a 63 which further shows that his form is beginning to come back. I think he has everything needed to go well here too.
Adrien Saddier is a player I’ve had my eye on recently and this could be a good chance to take him this week. He went well in Scotland a couple of weeks ago where his putter just went cold on the back nine on Sunday but to be fair to him Adrian Otaegui had the whole field under pressure by then. He has a decent enough record in Portugal and Qatar, two courses I believe correlate well with this one so that is very much a positive and he has also run well in other tournaments that were on less exposed courses where his ball striking will have been tested. His only win came on the Challenge Tour but he shot -24 for that week so we know he can go low. At 100/1 I’ll pay to see if he can go low enough here.
Tips
Back M.Schwab to win Cyprus Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Saddier to win Cyprus Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back S.Horsfield to win Cyprus Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back A.Bjork to win Cyprus Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Campillo to win Cyprus Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2020
