04.00 Flemington: Melbourne Cup
Preview
Known as the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup takes place in the early hours of Tuesday morning & this year’s renewal looks an absolute cracker. Last year’s winner Vow And Declare bids to retain his crown but looks up against it in this 24-strong field. To many, the O’Brien’s hold the key. Aiden saddles Tiger Moth & Anthony Van Dyck, and was the former trainer of Sir Dragonet who has now moved yards, whilst Joseph also has Master Of Reality & Twilight Payment. Whilst we’re on the name O’Brien, local trainer Danny has 4 in this field too.
Favourites
Aiden’s pair lead the market but I think there’s value looking elsewhere. Tiger Moth looks well treated but this is his first run in Oz & has a very wide draw in stall 23. His near 8-week absence from the track is another negative whilst 2019 Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck certainly has the class but has top weight & it would be some achievement to carry that round here & finish top of the pile. Sir Dragonet won the Cox Plate last time out but his chances would increase massively if there was more rain around whilst Charlie Fellowes’ Prince Of Arran, placed in this for the last 2 years, is now a risky bet after landing the inside stall where I fear traffic problems may just scupper his chances. Very Ellegant is one of the leading home hopes & has won her last 2, winning both the Turnbull & the Caullfield Cup but has a lot of weight for a mare & may struggle to stay this extra distance.
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Betting
In a really competitive heat, we’re taking 2 main bets & throwing a dart at a big priced outsider. Surprise Baby is the main bet. We know he stays having won over this trip on debut & then finishing really well to finish less than a length 5th in this last year when exiting from the 20 stall. He’s much better positioned this year in stall 7 & deserves some luck after finishing only 9th in the Turnbull when failing to get a clear run. His only other start this year was promising enough when 2nd in a Group 2 at Moonee Valley. He’s been laid out for this & will like the slightly quicker conditions. Provided he’s well positioned into the straight, he’s almost certain to be in the shake up.
Irish bred 3 year old Russian Camelot is another that’s hard to leave out of calculations. On only his 2nd career start, he won the South Australian Derby in fine style & has run very well in 4 starts since. A head 2nd in the Makybe Diva Stakes here before finishing 1st and 2nd in a pair of Caulfield Group 1’s, he was then 3rd in the Cox Plate behind Sir Dragonet. Almost certainly, the big question mark is his stamina but the way he won that South Australian Derby suggests he’ll be just fine. Admittedly he faded in the Cox Plate but the ground didn’t suit & he had too much use made of him early. From stall 16, he’s likely to be held onto a big longer & I can’t see him out of the frame if the trip doesn’t inconvenience.
Finally, at a silly price, Steel Prince has sound claims. 2 lengths 9th in this 12 months ago when hold up types were at a disadvantage, he’s arguably a better horse this time around after winning the Geelong Cup last time out. He loves good or faster ground, has won 2 of his 4 starts here & was 3rd on the only other where the ground suited, is guaranteed to stay &, to me, looks the likeliest of the longshots. He could easily run past beaten horses into the places.
Tips
Back Surprise Baby (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Sky Bet (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back Russian Camelot (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Sky Bet (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back Steel Prince (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Sky Bet (⅕ odds 1-7)
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