We have a triple header of Boxing Day action in the NFL this year with the first of a juicy three matches coming from the NFC where the Detroit Lions host a Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are the ones under all sorts of pressure here.
The Buccaneers saw their hopes of winning the NFC South title disappear on Christmas Day but they will secure their postseason berth with a win in this match. Detroit have been playing for little for a while and can at least attack this one with some freedom.
Detroit Lions
This season just never got going for the Detroit Lions and as a result they have been found wanting. There is no doubt that despite some injuries and Covid-19 issues they have underachieved this term. A team with the quality they have on offense should be doing a lot better than a 5-9 record and you get the impression heads are going to roll with that later on as a result. Their task now is to end the season with a couple of wins to at least have something to take into next season.
If that is going to happen then their defence needs to come to the party. They have shipped 30pts or more in their last four matches and in a couple of those games teams have got into the 40s against them. That suggests this is a team that has quit on that side of the ball but in the primetime spotlight there is no hiding place. If they can muscle up and contribute on defence then their offense is putting up the sort of points required to be competitive.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t been able to live with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South this season but they do still have a decent record going on, and although they will be on the road in the playoffs should they get there, there is no reason to think they can’t be at their own party in February. They have a varied offense full of quality and when they are going well their defence can muscle up and be counted which is the ideal postseason combination.
The Bucs had a bit of a sketchy run with defeats to the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs within four weeks of each other but they have bounced back in their last two matches with comfortable enough wins, albeit against lesser opposition. There is a case to be made that up against the elite sides the Buccaneers are found wanting but against the poorer teams they can feast.
Betting
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are being asked to cover a double digit spread here and while I wouldn’t say they have no chance of covering it, it doesn’t sit well with me to take it when winning is the primary aim rather than building up the winning total, especially when they are on the road. In saying that I certainly don’t trust this Detroit Lions defence to keep them close with the way they are conceding points right now.
It is that latter fact that makes me think over 54pts is the way to go here. The Tampa Bay defence has been found wanting at times this season and the Lions offense is very much the strongest part of their game. It would be a surprise if the Buccaneers don’t march down the field if not at will then with relative ease so I’m expecting the point scoring to be high here. Detroit aren’t playing for anything so they can give the ball some air and contribute to a high scoring match.
Tips
PUSH – Back Over 54pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
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