The first golf tournament of 2021 takes place on the PGA Tour this week when the winners of last season and those who made it through to the Tour Championship last term make their way to Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Justin Thomas started his year off in style in 2020 when he won this title and he is here to attempt to defend the crown. There is a decent field up against him as ever even though the traditional criteria for qualifying for this event has been tweaked due to Covid-19.
Recent Winners
2020 – Justin Thomas
2019 – Xander Schauffele
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jordan Spieth
2015 – Patrick Reed
2014 – Zach Johnson
2013 – Dustin Johnson
2012 – Steve Stricker
2011 – Jonathan Byrd
The Course
We are back on the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii this week, a track that will be incredibly familiar to the regulars in this tournament even allowing for the changes made to the course ahead of the event last year. It is a par 73 which can be something of a monster at 7,596 yards although the ball flies here so it doesn’t play quite to that yardage. Despite the length the only defence this course has is the wind and that isn’t expected to be too bad this week.
In essence this is a second shot golf course as the fairways here are incredibly wide and even if they are missed the rough isn’t too bad. Firing irons into the greens is the key to success here because the greens were flattened with the redevelopment. There are only three par 3s on this course but four par 5s and a few shorter par 4s, remember this is the place that Dustin Johnson nearly made an ace on a 400+ yard hole here when he tore the event up in 2018. Recently length and a very hot putter have been keys to success here.
The Field
The qualifying criteria has changed for this tournament. Usually it is only the winners of the previous year who get an invite but as so many events didn’t go ahead last term everyone who made the Tour Championship as well as those who won events are here. It means we have a couple of maidens in the field in Abraham Ancer and Scottie Scheffler. Three players who qualified have chosen not to enter. They are Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and Jim Herman.
That leaves us with the three major champions from 2020 in the field in Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson, the latter teeing it up for the first time since he tore Augusta apart. Justin Thomas will attempt to defend the title while former champions Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed are both here. The likes of Webb Simpson, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau are all in the field looking to win the title for the first time.
Market Leaders
Two time champion Dustin Johnson is the favourite to win the title again this week. He is a 6/1 shot to follow up his Masters crown with a third Tournament of Champions win but you’ve got to think he is likely to be a little rusty having not teed it up competitively for a couple of months and also this is the first time he does so as a Masters champion. We know he can tear this course up but he might need a few holes to shake off the rust and new found status so 6/1 isn’t really for me.
Justin Thomas is a 7/1 shot to keep hold of the title here. He has a couple of things going for him this week. He teed it up in that father-son thing last month which Tiger Woods and son stole the headlines in. I’d never use that as a form guide but at least no dust has gathered on his weapons. The other thing he has going for him is that he’ll be keen to keep hold of his title but he didn’t really finish 2020 how I would have wanted him to and that is a concern. He’s a bit too short for me.
Jon Rahm is 15/2 to land the Hawaiian event for the first time but I read in the lead up to the tournament that he has signed a new contract with a different manufacturer and is therefore using new bat this week. That is an immediate turn off for me and even though he has the profile to do some damage around this place he’s gotten progressively worse with form numbers of 2-8-10 in the last three years. If he connects with his new clubs straight away he’s a chance but that is enough of a concern to put me off.
Xander Schauffele won this tournament two years ago and was only denied a successful defence of the title in a play-off by Justin Thomas last year so at 10/1 he’ll be a popular candidate this week but he has only just recovered from a bout of Covid-19 and while it is unknown how badly he was impacted by it, it can’t be an ideal thing. He is just beginning to reach that part in his career where his results don’t quite meet the expectation that he has on him anyway so that would be another concern. Throw both factors into the mix and he isn’t for me this week.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of them on Bryson DeChambeau who has the potential to overpower this course. We are probably three months away from knowing whether Augusta doesn’t suit him or whether he genuinely was ill during The Masters but the key difference between there and here is that he can use the green books here and with that in mind it is probably not a surprise that he led the putting stats here a couple of years ago. Back then he had to play a normal game because he didn’t have the power that he has now but with the power and knowledge of the greens he should become the force which took Winged Foot by storm. At 11/1 he isn’t the biggest price in the world but given I was prepared to back him at shorter for The Masters I’m happy to be on again here.
The other main bet I like here is Cameron Smith. Unlike DeChambeau, the Australian had a brilliant run at The Masters and that isn’t a surprise because his iron play and short game is right up there, a feat that came to light if it hadn’t already done so when he won the Sony Open last year. He defends that tournament next week so I’m expecting him to have done a lot of work in the lead up to that. It also shows that he is perfectly able to function in Hawaiian conditions and actually if the forecast does change and the wind does become a factor we know he won’t be disadvantaged at all. If his win at Sony didn’t already tell us it, the run at Augusta highlights that 2021 should be a big year for Smith and that can begin right here.
Outsiders
I’ll throw a dart at a couple of outsiders as well with the first of those being Jason Kokrak who himself should enjoy a decent 2021 after he broke his duck last year when he won the CJ Cup. That was a no cut event like this one and although Shadow Creek is different to the Plantation Course, the one thing which doesn’t change is that Kokrak can give his driver plenty of work and get the ball out there. If the rest of his game catches fire then having beaten an equally as good field as this one if not better in Vegas in October, he could easily go close to a second victory.
Lanto Griffin appeared here for the first time last year and finished inside the top 15 with four rounds under par but without that really telling round that would have got him into contention. Since then he has run hot in a couple of big events and towards the end of last year he registered top 12 finishes at the CJ Cup and the Zozo Championship and finished off the year by finishing runner up in the QBE Shootout alongside his partner Mackenzie Hughes. When there has been a weakness to the game of Griffin it has been off the tee but there is no such issues with that here so if the rest of his game is in good working order he can make a significant improvement on a respectable finish here 12 months ago.
Tips
Back B.DeChambeau to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 12.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back C.Smith to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back J.Kokrak to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back L.Griffin to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
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