The Home Nations series comes to a close this week when the fourth and final event – the Welsh Open – takes place and for the first time this season the roadshow leaves Milton Keynes and heads to the Celtic Manor Resort in Newport for what will be a poignant event after the passing of Doug Mountjoy on Sunday.
Shaun Murphy won this tournament when the world was normal last year and he is back to defend the crown this week but with spots at the Players Championship still available as well as focus on staying on tour and qualifying automatically for Sheffield, there will be plenty of players looking for a good week.
Recent Winners
2020 – Shaun Murphy
2019 – Neil Robertson
2018 – John Higgins
2017 – Stuart Bingham
2016 – Ronnie O’Sullivan
2015 – John Higgins
2014 – Ronnie O’Sullivan
2013 – Stephen Maguire
2012 – Ding Junhui
2011 – John Higgins
The Format
I would imagine most know the format of these Home Nations events by now but for those who don’t the first four rounds of the tournament are played over the best of seven frames, with the third and fourth rounds taking place on Thursday. The quarter finals are over the best of nine frames with the semi-finals up to the best of 11. The champion will be determined over two sessions on Sunday in a race to nine. The draw has been already drawn and the event is a straight knockout.
Top Quarter
As the defending champion Shaun Murphy is the number one seed this week and he will head up the top quarter. He will near enough need to win the tournament if he is to make the Players Championship next week. There are three other top 16 players in this quarter and two of them need a few wins to be on the baize next week. They are Ding Junhui and Anthony McGill. Stephen Maguire is the other top 16 player here and he needs to win the event to make it into next week.
Barry Hawkins is having a good season and is guaranteed to be in the field next week and he will be looking to go there with a big week from this quarter. Other players of note in this quarter of the draw are the recent Shootout winner Ryan Day as well as Li Hang, Ken Doherty, Matt Selt and the home star Matthew Stevens while Dominic Dale and Pang Junxu will be looking to progress through a couple of rounds as well.
Second Quarter
The UK Championship winner Neil Robertson has no worries about next week and he will head up this second quarter. I always say the most competitive section of a draw is the second quarter and that looks to be the case this week with Mark Selby the other leading light here. The Masters champion Yan Bingtao and the man he took the title from Stuart Bingham are the other top 16 players in this quarter. Both men need big weeks to line up next week.
There are plenty of talented players from outside the top 16 this week as well. Liang Wenbo would be one of those but it might be a week that is biggest of all for Thepchaiya Un-Nooh who is right in the race to make it through to Sheffield as an automatic qualifier which would be huge for him. Gary Wilson, Xiao Guodong, Sam Craigie, Alexander Ursenbacher, Noppon Saengkham and Robert Milkins are all perfectly capable too. Michael Holt and Mark King will hope for a big week.
Third Quarter
It is right down in the third quarter where the man of the moment Judd Trump is sitting this week. Not for the first time this season he has been drawn in the same quarter as Kyren Wilson although the two haven’t actually made it to a quarter final against each other as often as you would have thought. The other two top 16 players in this quarter are the home star Mark Williams and the player who has made the final of the last two tournaments he has been in, in Jack Lisowski, another player who is on the fringes of automatically qualifying for the World Championship.
There are some talented outsiders in this part of the draw this week as well with the chief among them being Tom Ford who comes in here fresh from a run to the semi-final of the German Masters. Elliot Slessor, Graeme Dott and Ricky Walden can all have big weeks while the youngster from this part of the world Jackson Page will hope to use home comforts to his advantage as he is in danger of dropping off the tour. It is a big week for Joe Perry as well with him on the bubble of making it through to next week. Michael White, Zhao Xintong and Luca Brecel are among the other players who could go well.
Bottom Quarter
The world champion Ronnie O’Sullivan is the top name in the bottom quarter. He hasn’t won a title since he won the World Championship but he is among the favourites again this week. He is on a collision course with John Higgins in the quarter final with him also being in this quarter. This is a loaded quarter with Mark Allen also in this section as well as Dave Gilbert so this bottom quarter is a bit of a tournament in itself.
That becomes even more the case when you consider that Zhou Yuelong is also in this part of the draw. He has done everything but win an event over the last 14 months and as a result is right in the mix for an automatic place at Sheffield. Ali Carter had a decent week in the Championship League last week and he is in this section as well as Ben Woollaston, Scott Donaldson, Anthony Hamilton, Martin Gould and the Whirlwind himself Jimmy White.
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Betting
Regulars will know that I like to play a player from each quarter in these events in the hope of getting someone through to the last eight and in the top quarter I’m going to ride the restored confidence of Ryan Day who might only have won the Shootout but there is no substitute for taking home a piece of silverware and we’ve seen players win this event in the past and go on to bigger and better things. Day is guaranteed to be in the field next week as a result of his win at the Shootout so he can play with a little bit of freedom here and he’ll notice that all four top 16 players in this section are out of form too. There were signs of Day coming back to form before he won the Shootout so with the added confidence of that I think he has a great chance here.
In the second quarter I’m going to back Yan Bingtao to go one better than he went last year. Bingtao was beaten in the final of this event 12 months ago and he was also beaten in the final of the Players Championship as well so he’ll be eager to be in the field next week. He is £6,500 away from that at present so he needs at least the last 16 this week and probably a round or two more than that. We know he is capable of that though because of those runs last year and his win at The Masters where his all-round game really came to the fore. I think winning that tournament will do a lot for his confidence and his belief as a player. His quarter isn’t the easiest in that he has Neil Robertson and Mark Selby in it but he beat the former in The Masters and has a game to deal with the latter. At 40/1 knowing he needs a good week I’m happy to take him here.
Joe Perry is another player who needs a positive week for a couple of reasons. He is the bubble guy with regards to next week and he is also in the chase for one of the coveted spots at the World Championship so a big week here to get him into next week will help massively with the latter. It isn’t totally ideal that Perry is in the same part of the quarter as Judd Trump but Trump has to lose soon and Perry tends to play well against him but even then one of Zhao Xintong or Luca Brecel could take care of him. You often see this tournament really open up with the bigger names having played a lot of snooker recently and if it does Perry can take advantage.
Zhou Yuelong has been improving all the time over the last 15 months and he now provisionally sits inside the top 16 in the world rankings which means if Sheffield was tomorrow he would escape the qualifying draw. In order to make that more of a reality he needs to keep on winning so I’m happy to back him here. Yuelong was a quarter finalist of the English Open when Mark Selby was too good for him and semi-finalist in the UK Championship where he ran into Neil Robertson. This is the toughest of the four quarters but he deserves to be in the conversation for who could come out of it. Yuelong isn’t likely to come into anyone in good form going into the week until the last 16 and by then this tournament could be there for anybody. He’s overpriced at 80/1.
Tips
Back R.Day to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back Y.Bingtao to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfred (1/2 1-2)
Back J.Perry to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back Z.Yuelong to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
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