The flat season kicks off in the UK on Saturday and after kicking off the Irish campaign with a winner last weekend we are very much looking forward to betting in home surroundings beginning with a quality card at Doncaster.
The big race on the card is the Lincoln and we’re going double handed into the curtain raising handicap but before that runs there is also the Spring Mile and we’ve found a pick for that race as well.
2.35 Doncaster: Spring Mile Handicap
Preview
An excellent field for the Lincoln consolation race as the top weight is rated 94 & that would have pretty much guaranteed a spot in the main race in past years. Improving 4 year olds hold the key to this race, with 7 of the front 8 in the betting all from this age group. Pace is the other angle & whilst there’s pace all across the field, a high draw looks to be favoured. You’re also going to need to get every inch of this trip as they are sure to go a good clip.
Acquitted, from the yard of Hugo Palmer, is favourite judged on his 2nd to subsequent Group 1 winner Palace Pier on reappearance on the all weather last year but he was plumb last on his other 2 runs in similar quality handicaps to this so he has something to prove whilst 5 year old Artistic Rifles ran well on the sand last time out, comes here fit but is up in grade.
Betting
Poets Lady has a chance but might be drawn low enough in 8 so preference is for Mascat who’s having his first run since being gelded over the winter. He’s won just 1 of his 9 career starts but still appears to be on the upgrade & the conditions of this race appear to be right up his street. Like the favourite, he was 2nd to Palace Pier but that was as a 2 year old & his trainer was vocal about her ability 12 months ago, expecting her to be a Group horse in waiting.
That never quite materialised but he ran some solid races in handicaps thereafter, the best of those when 2nd to fancied Lincoln runner Brentford Hope at Haydock where the pair came clear of the rest of the field. That performance can be upgraded too as our selection wasn’t suited by the heavy ground. Back on better ground, drawn well in 17 & with his stamina assured having run well over a mile and a quarter, there appears to only be a question mark over fitness. However, his yard send just one up from the south so you’ve got to expect he’ll be ready to roll first time up &, if so, he must surely be in the mix with us being paid on the first 6 home.
Tips
Back Mascat (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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3.10 Doncaster: Lincoln Handicap
Preview
The Lincoln is the first big handicap of the season & typically you’re looking for an unexposed 4 year old, proven over the trip & one that is likely to progress into Group company later in the campaign. We have a maximum field of 22 going to post for this straight mile handicap & there’s some interesting runners from big yards at the top of the betting.
Haqeeqy from the Gosden yard has been backed into favouritism & he won 3 from 4 last term but there’s 2 things that put me off; firstly, this isn’t a race for claimers so, whilst Benoit De La Sayette looks value for his 7lb claim, it’s not for me here & secondly, he disappointed on his only try over this trip. With stamina being a prerequisite, his odds of 3/1 are far too short to be taking a chance of him lasting home here. Eastern World has no such stamina doubts & his fitness is guaranteed having won a handicap at Meydan 6 weeks ago & he’s hard to ignore but Haqeeqy does have the beating of him on past form, albeit over a furlong shorter.
Brentford Hope is an interesting one after winning on the bridle at Haydock but he looks a soft ground horse & probably won’t be as good on this faster surface whilst River Nymph progressed well last term but was another to disappoint when stepped up to this trip. King Ottokar has been a long time fancy of mine & has been aimed at this but the draw & ground may just scupper his chances. He’s definitely one to keep on side for another time.
Betting
In such a competitive heat, we’re taking 2 against the field, the first of those being Danyah. He’s 3 from 6 on turf and was 3rd on 2 of his other 3 starts so that alone suggests he’ll be in the shake up. Last season, he won on reappearance so fitness shouldn’t be an issue & the way he won suggests first time up might actually be the time to catch him. After finishing 3rd behind one of today’s rivals River Nymph next time out on ground too soft, he improved to run Hortzadar to less than 2 lengths, again on ground too soft & in a race where he was twice denied a clear run. He then stepped up at Haydock when beating Alternative Fact by over a length, with the rest strung out on good ground. That was a race full of promise &, with positive noises coming from the yard, he is expected to go well.
At a big price, we cannot leave Ouzo out. Richard Hannon has said he’s been burning it up on the gallops but, irrespective of stable confidence, he has the form in the book to go well. He’s drawn well in 16 but has much more than that to recommend him. A winner of 4 in his 14 race career, he knows how to get his head in front & has done it in a big field on a straight track, as he landed a mile handicap at York on his last start off a 5lb lower mark, beating 19 rivals. He also ran a good 5th in what we marked down as the strongest mile handicap of the season, the Clippers Logistics where the 4 in front were Montatham (now rated 109), Sir Busker (111), Top Rank (111) & Prompting (95). His form after an absence of at least 4 months reads 2-4-2 so he’s another where fitness shouldn’t be an issue so, at the likely odds, he rates a decent each way bet.
Tips
PLACED – Back Danyah (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 10.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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PLACED – Back Ouzo (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 23.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
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