4.15 Curragh
Preview
Due to events elsewhere, we are left with a poor day’s racing for a Saturday but there is a decent card over in Ireland & one race takes our eye with a 22 runner handicap over a mile with the top rated horse having a mark of 101. Despite its competitiveness, Joseph O’Brien saddles the first 4 in the market & I will be looking to oppose them all. Dance Jupiter ran to a good standard last term but a win on his final start has put him up to a career high mark & it’ll be difficult for him off top weight whilst Never Forgotten probably has better claims, given her unexposed profile.
She easily accounted for Group performer So Wonderful on her last start but a 266-day absence is no help &, on jockey bookings, she doesn’t appear to be the stable’s best chance. Fame And Acclaim ran well in the Irish Lincoln but was out of form previously and Raise You almost certainly wants further as well as deeper ground. Another wanting deeper ground is Pepperoni Pete who has been raised 17lbs for an 11 length win on heavy last time up whilst Fil The Power was almost put up as a bet here but may just need an extra furlong. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him though.
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Betting
The one I like is Tauran Shaman, who was favourite for last year’s Irish Lincoln (held in June due to the pandemic). As a 2 year old, he won his first 2 starts before finishing last of 5 in a Group 2 over in France on unsuitably soft ground. In his comeback run over course & distance in that Lincoln, he was 7th of 17 but was travelling as well as any 2 furlongs out & looked the most likely winner. He allowed first run to others & then, after pressing the button, was leaned into & all realistic chance had gone.
He then ran in 4 more Premier Handicaps on the spin, finishing 3rd & 4th over this trip, sandwiched in between a couple of failures where he failed to stay &, on the latter occasion, dwelt badly from the gates. Soft ground on his last start also didn’t help although he ran well enough, 3 lengths off the winner at Leopardstown. What makes him particularly appealing is his mark having been dropped a generous looking 3lbs to 90, especially bearing in mind he ran in last year’s Irish Lincoln off 96 & was placed in Premier Handicaps off 95 twice. Add to that he’s a horse that goes better on better ground & this mile trip is ideal for him; form over a mile on ground that’s yielding at worst reads 11734. He’s also drawn well in 5 and provided he’s ready to roll first time up, I’d expect him to go close.
Tips
PLACED – Back Tauran Shaman (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 11.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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