Following on from our look at the key trends for the Grand National, we continue our preview with a look at each of the 40 runners, their current best odds and a ‘star’ rating (out of 3).
We’ll be back later with our final bets for the big race.
✮✮✮ Many Clouds (best price 8/1f)
Last year’s winner is saddled with top weight and comes into the race as favourite. It is a big ask to follow up off a 5lb higher mark but he has shown this season that, if anything, he is still on the upgrade. However, this looks to be a stronger renewal and whilst he ran a perfect prep race at Kelso, there’s not much value in him at 8/1.
✮✮ Silviniaco Conti (12/1)
Paul Nicholls’ number 1 contender who is high class at his best. He’s a winner of 11 of his 22 chase starts and that includes 7 Grade 1’s. However, he’s never won in a field bigger than 10 runners and, in our opinion, a doubtful stayer especially if the ground softens. If this was a race over 3 miles, he’d be favourite but the extra 11 furlongs will find him out.
✮ First Lieutenant (40/1)
Now an 11 year old, he hasn’t won for 3 years and is thoroughly exposed with 29 chase starts under his belt. He is trained by the shrewd Mouse Morris but was miles back in this race 12 months ago off 5lb lower. He has 2 good runs to his name recently in the Hennessy and in the Lexus but a 12lb hike in the weights is an issue and that is not the profile of a Grand National winner.
✮ Wonderful Charm (50/1)
We’d be amazed if he can work his charm here. Off the track for 4 months which is a concern coming into a race where you need to be in peak race condition coupled with the fact he’s yet to win beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs is enough to ignore his chances. His liking for big fields is unknown having won his 4 chases in fields of 5 runners or fewer.
✮ Ballynagour (66/1)
The choice of Tom Scudamore, riding for David Pipe. He’s another that has yet to win beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and has very patchy recent form. He’s better on better ground and this confirmed hold up horse will need luck in running. The only consistent thing about this one is his inconsistency.
✮✮ O’Faolains Boy (33/1)
The Rebecca Curtis yard is in terrific form so this one is not without a chance. He was a distant 7th in the Gold Cup after travelling well for a long way. He has some good past form to his name beating Many Clouds in the Reynoldstown 2 years back as well as winning that year’s RSA at Cheltenham. He’s possibly too inexperienced over the big obstacles with only 9 chase starts and recent form is a worry.
✮ Gilgamboa (66/1)
Another with less than 10 chase starts, this 8 year old has never won over further than 2 miles 4 furlongs. In his only 2 tries over 3 miles, he was noted running well but on both occasions he faded having looked a big challenger. This makes him a very doubtful stayer.
✮ On His Own (50/1)
Anything over the age of 11 is instantly dismissed when looking for the Grand National winner so this 12 year old is instantly out of the equation. He’s run in this race twice when of a more appropriate age but both times he fell. He’s also 8lb higher in the handicap today so you’ll be on your own if you choose to back this one.
✮✮✮ The Druids Nephew (16/1)
This will still brings back bad memories for the Kevshatsportsbets team as he fell 4 out last year when going well and looking all over the winner. He’s been laid out for this year’s renewal, starting his campaign off in a Grade 2 hurdle. He is 9lb higher this year but is still improving and looks to have been brought to the boil slowly, finishing 2nd to The Last Samuri on ground much too soft. The key is the ground and he would be impossible to leave out of any shortlist if the ground is no worse than good to soft.
✮✮✮ Triolo D’Alene (33/1)
He is one of 2 Nicky Henderson trained runners, who is bullish about his chances saying he’s been aimed all season at this. This one was a top novice and won the Topham over these fences in 2013. He’s also a Hennessy winner but has had setbacks since, starting when he was pulled up in this race 2 years ago as a 7 year old. Breathing issues were the problem and these are made worse on soft ground. Should the ground on the right side of good to soft, this could be the one to turn around Henderson’s poor record in the race.
✮✮ Rocky Creek (66/1)
He’s had 3 spins over the National fences, finishing 5th in 2014 and then a distant 17th last year. He was also pulled up in the Grand Sefton at the end of 2015. Form this season has been poor unlike his run up to previous renewals and it’s not difficult to think his best chance of Grand National glory has gone.
✮ Sir Des Champs (40/1)
The biggest surprise of this one’s participation is that it is Ruby Walsh’s choice. We can only assume that’s based on a Cheltenham Gold Cup 2nd a few years back. He has 8 chase wins to his name but the biggest field had just 10 runners. Since a long lay off, he’s had 3 starts and has disappointed the last twice. Despite being high class at best, he’s lots of prove and doesn’t look to be a National type.
✮✮✮ Holywell (16/1)
A spring horse that, like The Druids Nephew, needs good ground and should be thereabouts if the going stays good to soft or better. He goes well in big fields, underlined by his record of 1-1-2 in 3 runs in races with over 20 runners. He looks to be well handicapped, fits the age bracket at 9 years old and was an excellent 2nd in the Ultima at Cheltenham just over 3 weeks ago. The only concern is whether his small frame will be enough to handle these fences, although they are not as intimidating as in previous years.
✮✮ Shutthefrontdoor (20/1)
He finished 5th last year off 1lb higher when going off favourite but, despite this being his 2nd try in the race, the biggest concern is his relative inexperience over fences, still with just 8 runs against his name. Barry Geraghty takes the mount and therefore he’s not easily discounted but his prep has not been as good. He was 3rd over hurdles before running a stinker in the Greatwood, being pulled up but struggling almost from the outset. Whether he was fully tuned up or not is questionable but he ran too bad to be true.
✮✮✮ Soll (50/1)
He is an 11 year old, the age that has taken 3 of the last 4 Nationals and Soll bids to extend that record. Scudamore prefers Ballynagour but Conor O’Farrell, who takes over, is 1 from 1 on the horse. He’s finished all 4 starts over the National fences, including in 2 Grand Nationals. He’s racing off a career high mark who would be of genuine interest on proper soft ground. He was 4th in the Becher Chase in November when getting soft for the 1st time in his 4 tries over these fences.
✮ Buywise (50/1)
He has not run since the Skybet Chase at the end of January and we’re instantly put off by any horse that hasn’t run in the last 8 weeks. He’s also yet to win over further than 2 miles 6 furlongs but was noted as staying on. He’s not certain to get this marathon trip but a bigger concern is his patchy jumping despite only falling once on his debut in a hunter chase 3 years ago.
✮✮ Boston Bob (33/1)
He looks very well handicapped but is a Willie Mullins runner that Ruby Walsh has deserted. The big question mark is whether he retains all of his old ability despite a narrow win last time out. His hold up style is also not ideal but, if he gets a clear run and rolls back the years, he’s got a chance.
✮ Aachen (100/1)
He needs the ground to be bottomless but, even then, this 12 year old veteran is unlikely to be anywhere near good enough. Handicap mark looks beyond him too.
✮ Morning Assembly (25/1)
A Pat Fahy trained runner who has attracted a bit of money recently. He’s lightly raced and that lack of experience is a worry, having only been seen 8 times over fences. What’s more, he needs to defy one of the strongest trends, that of having won over a minimum of 3 miles. He will appreciate soft ground more than many of these.
✮ Double Ross (100/1)
He has had a couple of decent spins over these fences but is out of form at present, has never won over 3 miles and almost certainly won’t stay.
✮✮✮ Goonyella (20/1)
He was 2nd in the Scottish National 12 months ago so we know he stays. He ticks all the boxes, trends wise, and has been aimed at this for over 12 months now. He’s had a go over hurdles this term to protect his mark but the worry for backers would be his experience of these fences, falling and finishing out the back in 2 attempts. It would be no surprise if the longer trip brings out improvement so maybe 3rd time lucky over these fences. He needs it to rain with the softer the ground, the better.
✮ Ucello Conti (25/1)
He has been very well backed recently but doesn’t strike us as having the right traits to win a National. He has to overcome a 79 day absence and has yet to win over 3 miles or more. Also, Daryl Jacob takes over in the saddle from Jacques Ricou who has built up a great relationship with the horse. He’s still a 8 year old and may hold better claims if coming back 12 months from now.
✮✮✮ Unioniste (33/1)
Another Paul Nicholls runners who fell in this last year as a 7 year old. He did, however, get over these fences in the Becher Chase in November and, as a young improving type, could go well. He is almost 10lb lower in the handicap than those 2 runs and, although he was put in his place by Many Clouds at Kelso last time out, it was a pleasing prep race. He goes on any ground but may be better on soft and looks to be a high class stayer in the making.
✮✮✮ Le Reve (40/1)
He is running well at present and is a very strong stayer, although is likely to be better at Sandown. He jumps his fences well and has the blinkers on again which has certainly helped in recent races. He represents a good outside bet if taking to Aintree as well as he does Sandown.
✮✮ Gallant Oscar (20/1)
From the shrewd Tony Martin yard, he has been laid out for this and loves big fields. He looks to be the archetypal plot horse but his exaggerated hold up style makes him a risky bet. He should go well but doesn’t look the best handicapped. Stable is going through a quiet spell.
✮ Onenightinvienna (50/1)
The youngest horse in the field at 7 years old and therefore he is instantly dismissed. He’s also had just 4 starts over fences and this will be a step too far.
✮✮ The Last Samuri (10/1)
This one is very well fancied and couldn’t really be in better form. He’s also well in at the weights, going unpenalised for a win over The Druids Nephew. He’s just an 8 year old and not many of those win although Many Clouds did last year. His inexperience has to be considered a negative and, despite being a good jumper, 8 fence starts could find him out. The value has gone from this one.
✮✮ Kruzhlinin (25/1)
The mount of Richard Johnson who is still looking for his first success in this race, 20 tries in. His mount ran well at Cheltenham recently, finishing 5th and he has managed to complete over these fences twice before. He has been trained for this and does have claims but is a pretty sketchy jumper.
✮ Rule The World (50/1)
Easy to rule this one out as he’s never even won a chase, let alone over a marathon distance. He was 2nd in last season’s Irish National, however, but is 7lb higher today.
✮✮✮ Just A Par (50/1)
Blinkers being reapplied could be the key to this horse’s chances especially as the last time that happened, he won Bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown 12 months ago. He was pulled up on his one try over these fences but should be seen in a better light now. His chance would be enhanced if ridden a little more prominently.
✮ Katenko (80/1)
He’s in no sort of form at all, he’s raced only 3 times in 2 years and we cannot see anything to recommend this one.
✮ Vics Canvas (100/1)
He was 2nd in that Sandown race to Just A Par but he’s now a 13 year old which instantly puts a cross through his chances.
✮ Black Thunder (66/1)
He has been off the track for 2 months which traditionally has been a National negative. In addition, he has been out of form and, worryingly, has never won a chase in a field bigger than 6 runners. He has a lot to find on the form book.
✮ Ballycasey (80/1)
Katie Walsh rides for Willie Mullins and he’s over 3 times the price he was last year when brought down at 25/1 when ridden by Ruby Walsh. He’s no forlorn hope but has never won over 3 miles plus, making him an unlikely stayer. He did run well recently at Cheltenham but that was over 2 miles 5 furlongs.
✮✮ Hadrian’s Approach (66/1)
Henderson’s other runner and another that has been aimed at this race. He has only run once this season and there’s a question mark over whether that’s a negative. We think it is. He does look well handicapped and his chance would have enhanced on better ground.
✮ Vieux Lion Rouge (80/1)
The other 7 year old in the race which makes success extremely unlikely. He’s also very inexperienced with just 6 chase starts against him. He is, however, in good form but it will take a good horse to win this as a novice.
✮ Pendra (80/1)
He looks hard to train having been off the track for 4 months. That said, he goes well fresh but lacks the experience to win this and is also a shade high in the weights.
✮✮✮ Saint Are (16/1)
Paddy Brennan’s mount was 2nd in this last year off 3lb lower, having finished 9th in 2013 on his first try over the National fences. He was also 3rd in Becher Chase last year too. His chance would be enhanced on ground no worse than good to soft and he holds solid claims of going one better. He’s a definite spring horse having never won before February and has the perfect racing style for this, being a prominent type. Stable is absolutely flying.
✮ Home Farm (100/1)
2 runs this season and both have been over hurdles which is not ideal. He has never won over 3 miles plus and looks another non stayer.
✮✮✮ The Romford Pele (40/1)
From the same yard as O’Faolains Boy and has a decent chance from a stable in form. He has had an unconventional prep, coming here following 2 spins over the smaller obstacles including last time in the Coral Cup. He is a good stayer, goes on most ground although wouldn’t want it bottomless and gets in with a decent handicap mark. We’d expect him to stay on as well as anything but may need to race a little more prominent than recently.
