Week 11 of the NFL 2021 season begins on Thursday night and we have a repeat of one of the most remarkable Super Bowls ever played as the Atlanta Falcons welcome the New England Patriots to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
These two teams look to be going in pretty different ways at the minute with the Patriots winning four in a row and the Falcons having to overcome a very heavy loss last week. They are doing that on a short week too.
Atlanta Falcons
When you consider what has been and gone in recent seasons for the Atlanta Falcons, a 4-5 record halfway through this campaign would be acceptable but when you break it down a little that record doesn’t look as great as it does on paper. I say that the first three of those wins came against the New York Giants, New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. Those three sides only have eight wins between them this season so they are not the best form guide.
The biggest result of all was their last one where they were taken to the cleaners by the Dallas Cowboys and it goes without saying that a dramatic improvement is needed from them here. The problem for Atlanta is injuries on their offense. Main receiver Calvin Ridley is out here and all-rounder Cordarelle Patterson is expected to miss the match with an ankle sprain as well. The other issue the Falcons might have is their defence got gassed on Sunday and haven’t had much time to rest and recover.
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New England Patriots
At 6-4 you wouldn’t say this is a fantastic season for the New England Patriots but then when you consider they are going with a rookie quarterback, who understandably needed a few matches to find his feet and feel like he belongs at this level, it certainly isn’t a bad season. It has been made to look good because they have won their last four matches and they are closing in on a faltering Buffalo Bills in the race for the AFC East.
That makes this a huge match for the Patriots and with Mac Jones now establishing himself as the leader in this offense, and his defence stepping up and being counted all the time, the Patriots are suddenly a decent looking side. One area of concern is them being a road team on a short week. That is never an easy thing to overcome but if anyone can do it then it is going to be a team coached by the master Bill Belichick.
Betting
Regular readers will know I’m no fan of taking road teams in these Thursday night matches but there is always an exception to any rule and I think it comes here. There are two big issues for me with this Atlanta Falcons outfit. The offensive injuries will make it so much easier for Belichick and the New England Patriots to shut down the strength of the Atlanta offense and the Atlanta defence could quickly run out of steam after being on the field for so long on Sunday.
Other than a lack of preparation time, the Patriots don’t really have too many problems to concern them here. Their defence looks in decent order and there is a real balance to their offense, so even if Atlanta get to Mac Jones, or he flounders a little on a short week which he isn’t used to, then they can get the job done with a running game which is really beginning to flourish during this four game winning spell. A fairly freakish win over New Orleans aside, the Falcons haven’t beaten anyone of note this term. Three of their five losses have been by 23 points or more. I think the Patriots cover 6.5 here.
Tips
Back New England Patriots (-6.5) to beat Atlanta Falcons for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
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